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The dynamic shifted dramatically on November 19, 2024, when reports indicated that Putin had officially lowered the threshold for nuclear weapon use. The newly revised doctrine permits Russia to employ nuclear arms if it perceives its sovereignty as under threat from a non-nuclear country and its nuclear allies. This represents a significant escalation in rhetoric and policy.

A Direct Response to Western Military Support

The timing of this fundamental change in doctrine appears to correlate closely with increasing Western military support for Ukraine. Notably, the United States permitted Ukraine to use long-range missiles against military targets within Russia, prompting a fear in the Kremlin that such actions could justify a nuclear response.