Isn't the blow-off top supposed to happen a few good months after the halving?
I guess we'll have to see about that. I am pretty sure though that BTC hasn't experienced much buying pressure coming from retail yet. They will be there once it breaks $100,000 and they will FOMO "just because it's going to $1 million". Or they'll simply ignore it and buy DOGE because it's Elon Musk's favorite cryptocurrency.
Personally, I believe something like $60,000 is highly achievable for BTC pre-halving and way over $100,000 as a top for the bull market. A top that might occur this year.
There can be more than one blow-off. So maybe a pre-halving mini blow-off but then a second major event later. Q3/Q4 of 2025?
Makes sense. To me "blow-off" resonates in my mind to the grand finale. In this case, we might see a steep correction before the halving once BTC gets too cocky. At some point, ETFs will slow down.
We got a very obvious blow-off-top volcano in summer 2019 that clearly was not the grand finale and marked more of a middle point. It's a shape that can pop up pretty much anywhere. They take at least 3 months to bottom out after blowing up. 2019 took more like 6 months to complete but ETF buying pressure combined with halving could easily shorten that to less time... although September is usually a great time to buy so 5 months is on the table.
Nah the big one happens a full year after.
Or in this case maybe October 2025 looking at previous patterns.
Happened in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
2021 got a little weird because of COVID money injections so it was a Wyckoff pattern for the entire year with 2 tops.