I think you forgot the terms of the bet... first of all you said depression, not recession. Second of all your chart shows the second quarter INCREASING in economic output, which wouldn't even validate the definition of a recession, though again, we were talking about a depression.
Here's your own words for context:
So what exactly is the bet?
I am betting that the American economy will be in a state of DEPRESSION by July 1 2021 - Depression as in a 10% or greater decline in economic output as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters
Revising that on July 1 2021 gives us the first two quarters of 2021 to look at.
Catch is, I suspect it won't be easy to get reliable figures on July 1st, but we can have a search around.
I expect to see a chart like this:
If I lose 100 Hive and Hive goes up to $5 I'll probably think "bugger, I just chucked away $500 by being a cocky prick..." (I'm picking Hive to go up to $5 and Leo to $7 in the next year)
But on the other hand I'm reasonably confident of winning, so it should be fun!
I'm curious to see which side of the fence other people would be on.
A question from @jrcornel:
Q - "if you get an 11% decline in Q1 but only an 8% decline in Q2 I win?"
A - Yes, sticking within this definition of a depression, that would only be a recession - America is already in recession now, so it wouldn't be much of a bet - yes I would only win if it declines more than 10% two quarters in a row. And I'm still confident! (even though I can lose this bet on April 1, but you can't)
https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@frot/taking-a-huge-gamble-on-hive
The latest posted GDP data can be seen here btw: https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/
The long and short of it, you bet we would be in a depression by end of June, which we are clearly not. Which means you did not win the bet and you owe me 100 HIVE. I do remember upvoting your post with a decent sized upvote though, which should help with the payout. ;)
You can send the 100 HIVE to the @jrcornel account when you have it together.
Dude you don't have to be condescending...100 hp is not the issue ... i've powered down a quarter million hp in the past 4 months.
The issue is that America is well beyond depression, it is in economic melt down.
Nz is too...
As is Australia.
All the official figures are fake, and that is another issue. I don't know what planet you are on, but I only have to walk 100 meters from my door to see what economic melt down looks like...want a cheap deal on a shop lease?
You really are a bit odd...I must admit I'm getting curious about what your gig is...what platforms are you focused on now? Steemit? Blurt? Any others?
Could you do a post showing that America is not in depression?
Condescending? I was simply showing you the terms of the bet since you seem to have forgotten them. None of the data shows the kinds of predictions, and projections you were making in that time period, which was exactly what our bet was about. You defined it has being in a depression by the published numbers, and we were not even close to that even if you say the numbers are not accurate. Again, not being condescending, simply showing the terms of the bet for you.
I am in all sorts of stuff. Several defi projects that have been paying off very well. HIVE has potential but those calling the shots seem to be the ones that are preventing it from reaching that potential.
I can go into more detail on what exactly I am in if you want?
The issue for me is not about the 100 Hive, if you had won the bet and America was not in depression, I would happily pay it.
And I do mean happy, I'm on the brink of losing very large sums of money, and if the American economy wasn't currently collapsing I would jump for joy.
But it is...
My mistake in taking this bet was in not being clear about which figures we could agree on.
In terms of America being in a state of depression, it is - whatever crap the official figures say - it is blindingly obvious. America is screwed. Not later - right now.
NZ is officially not in depression either. Neither is Australia.
In reality I am already living in a giant virtual internment camp and walking past dozens of for lease shops.
You have not yet provided any figures supporting your astonishing claim that America is not in depression.
You can literally look at any official numbers out there, none of them claim the US was in depression from Q1 through Q2, which was what our bet was about. You are clearly going back on our terms at this point... It was stated several times that we would use the official numbers posted by the government. Even if you use unofficial numbers posted somewhere else you can't pull any that show the United States being in a depression from Q1 through Q2. You clearly lost the bet now be a man of your word and honor the bet... because at this point you are making it look like it's very much about the 100 HIVE that you are not paying...
I wouldn't go on about honour too much if I was you - lol
Yeah I'm being a dick, but so are you...
Not in depression? - Provide some figures then...
You don't even HAVE a government - you have a law suit in motion and and some old fart with dementia being set up as a scapegoat for the total economic meltdown that is occurring as we speak.
I could just as easily suggest you transfer 100HP to my account because I clearly won the bet.
The unemployment rate went nuts last year and it's plain where that leads - are you in a state of cognitive dissonance?
This could be a good blog post - maybe we should debate this and have a vote?
How am I being a dick?! You lost the bet by every way measurable... pay the bet. That figure you posted above is for April 2020. Our bet was from January 2021 through June 2021. I agree things are not great, but per the terms of our bet, the US was not in a measurable depression during that time period, which means you lost the bet.
You are being a dick by constantly implying that I can't afford 100 hive, and making out i don't remember what the bet was.