Trade Of The Century

​If there’s a high probability winning trade to take from a macro perspective and on a longer timeframe, it’ll be shorting society and longing humanity.

​I not so recently read a sentence posted on Substack about taking critical thinking skills to dismantle the illusions of society and still love humanity.

Ever since, my mind in the background has been running laps around the dynamic between these two words: society and humanity.

​Generally, an acceptable framework is society being a subset of humanity, in that society is made up of humans obviously, but could it be that not all humans are part of society?

​There’s some meat on the bone of this posted question. I’m not sure what the significance of that is compared to the totality of society in terms of actual numbers, likely negligible outliers like hermits or uncontacted tribes.

But then also, it’s well noticeable that the minority have a knack of steering the cultural and economic direction of the majority. "Society" is not a democratic aggregate of human will, but more so a curated structure.

​Perhaps, a definition of society needs to be established too. The standard one is basically a group of people sharing territory, cultural expectations, and institutions. But that feels too benign for this trade thesis.

Humans can’t help but create hierarchical top-down systems to establish arbitrary law and orders for predictability, often sacrificing individual vitality for collective safety.

On a bit higher level, society is a machine of sorts that's controlled by-insert-whatever-known-unknown -you want here.

My insertion will be... I don't know. It's hard to find the right word at present time of writing.

​Employing a mental image, however, is those memes of a puppeteer and their puppets. This is only a close approximation, and the reality is likely less conspiratorial and more structural, nearer to a runaway algorithm of growth-at-all-costs that no single person is actually driving.

​For those uninitiated, shorting is when you’re bearish for "something" and think its value will go down in the future; longing is basically the opposite of that.

​In my view, society’s value has relatively increased to the detriment of the human spirit, which is all well and good until the systemic leverage starts to break and the margin call comes due.

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​Trading the divergence

​So, if the thesis is that the abstract machine (Society) is overvalued and fragile, while the organic substrate (Humanity) is undervalued and resilient, how do we actually express this trade?

How would "shorting society" look out in practice? ​Is it enough to just exit and watch the ship sink by itself, so to speak?

I’m of the opinion that this proverbial ship will not simply sink quietly. Probably it will cannibalize its passengers in a desperate attempt to stay afloat. Therefore, passive observation is more of a liability here.

​To execute this trade, one must move beyond philosophy into action.

​## Shorting Society

Art of Strategic Divestment

​Shorting society does not mean actively trying to destroy it (which is dangerous), nor does it mean total isolation (which is impractical). In financial markets, when you short a stock, you profit when it loses relevance or value. In life, you short society by reducing your exposure to its points of failure.

​Divest from Status Games

Much of society runs on the currency of prestige, i.e luxury signaling, and "keeping up." These are inflationary traps and one can short them by refusing to play. Value competency over credentials and utility over prestige.

​Reduce Dependency on Centralized Chains

Society is a logistics chain of fragile convenience. To short it, you reduce your "beta" (correlation) to the system. If the grocery store stops engaging in global trade, do you starve?

​The "Attention" Short

Arguably the primary control mechanism is the attention economy (news, outrage cycles, algorithmic feeds). Shorting this means withdrawing your attention capital. Let the algorithm starve while you retain your peace of mind.

So far, all three are four are semi radical, a bit counter-cultural at the moment, yet quite practical to execute on.

Longing Humanity

​If you are shorting the artificial, you go long the real thing. "Longing humanity" means betting that when the artificial constraints of society crumble, human ingenuity, connection, and biology will be the top assets that hold value.

​Longing "High-Touch" Relationships

In a way, to long humanity is to invest in deep, unscalable, analog relationships. As an example, a text message is more of "society" compared to a dinner party with neighbors who can help one fix a fence is "humanity."

​Invest in Biology

In a weird way, society profits from sickness (processed food, sedentary entertainment, pharmaceuticals). Longing humanity means betting on your own biology, learning about it and taking active measures to honor it, e.g prioritizing sleep is a direct hedge against societal decay.

​Skill Acquisition vs. Job Title

A job title is a social construct; the ability to build, repair, grow, or heal is a human universal. Long skills that are useful even when the internet goes down.

Conclusion of the trade

​I think this macro trade is effectively a bet on mean reversion after having stretched the rubber band of "Society" too far away from the stake of "Humanity."

The tension is unbearable.
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When the correction happens, those who are heavily invested in the illusions of society could find their portfolios (and identities) wiped out.

And the other camp, those who are long humanity, rooted in reality, community, and capability will not only survive the correction but could be the ones capitalized enough to build whatever comes next, whatever that may be.


Thanks for reading!! Share your thoughts below on the comments.

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