The next altcoin season may be arriving shortly...
Altcoin seasons are the stuff of legend, when ordinary people suddenly talk about buying lambos.
We have seen a few massive ones in the past few years and we likely will see more in the coming years as well.
That being said, I think we may be on the verge of another altcoin season in the near future, though perhaps not on the same scale as we saw back in late 2017.
Why do I say that?
A couple reasons really...
Bitcoin & Seasonality.
What does bitcoin have to do with altcoin season exactly?
Bitcoin is pretty much the number one decider of when an altseason will occur.
If bitcoin is doing well and seeing massive price increases, money tends to pour out of altcoins and chase the returns in bitcoin.
Conversely, if bitcoin is selling off (albeit in a somewhat normalized fashion), altcoins tend to do very well, especially in bitcoin' terms.
As it stands right now, bitcoin is on the eve of some volatility with its halving now less than 2 weeks away.
Check out what the dominance index looks like currently:
(Source: ~~~ embed:1256056610864103426) twitter metadata:QWx0Y29pblNoZXJwYXx8aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9BbHRjb2luU2hlcnBhL3N0YXR1cy8xMjU2MDU2NjEwODY0MTAzNDI2KXw= ~~~
If the bitcoin dominance index breaks out of this pattern to the upside, it likely spells bad news for altcoins in the near term.
However, if it breaks down, that is likely very good news for altcoins in the near term.
What does seasonality have to do with altseason?
Looking back at the last year we can see a period of time when altcoins tended to perform rather well, for whatever reason.
Looking back at a chart of steem is pretty clear when that time period was...
Check it out:
(Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/steem/)
As you see the May-June time period was the best time of the year for ol STEEM.
A chart of STEEM isn't the best example, but a lot of other altcoins show a similar pattern and it is another arrow in our quiver for altseason coming soon...
Plus there is this from an avid altcoin trader:
(Source: ~~~ embed:1256206926481940481) twitter metadata:RnV0dXJlQlRDX1RUfHxodHRwczovL3R3aXR0ZXIuY29tL0Z1dHVyZUJUQ19UVC9zdGF0dXMvMTI1NjIwNjkyNjQ4MTk0MDQ4MSl8 ~~~
He also seems to be pretty convinced alteason is coming shortly.
Will it actually happen?
No guarantees things actually play out like this but there are some things setting up to possibly see an altseason in the coming weeks.
If that is indeed the case I would expect to see HIVE do extremely well.
Heck, even ol STEEM would probably do pretty good as well.
What do you think, is an altseason around the corner or is bitcoin going to eat everyone's lunch?
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc
I recently came back to crytpos exactly because of what you summarized here. Pretty excited times ahead, especially 2021 🙂
Nice, may be a pretty good time to come back!
in my opinion alt season begins when bitcoin breaks 20k.
Altcoin season started when exchanges started airdropping fraction of trading fees back to holders of their own tokens... Altcoin developers could use the airdrops to push price of their own coins up...
In terms of a really big altseason, I think you are probably right. The old adage of bitcoin first and then the altcoins probably needs to happen to see the massive gains like we saw in January of 2018. However, I think we can see some mini altseasons along the way, and one of those may be on the way in the coming weeks/months.
Thanks for this post. Learnt from it.
The alt season has been waiting for a long time, it is time.
Some people assumed it would have had started in mid-January 2020, but a lot of things went sideways and it got delayed by few months...
Yea, hopefully it comes by June ish, but I don't expect this one to be the big one.
I like the trend you highlight, with altcoins set to take off in May-June. Here’s to a very profitable 2020 - I’ll even welcome STEEM to the moon ;).
Hey, what is good for one of these projects is likely good for the other as well. They will be tied to one another for a long time going forward mostly likely.
We have faced 2 years of bear market and now I hope bitcoin will take altcoins along it. Beside bitcoin halving, price of bitcoin will increase in somewhat normalized fashion which may increase altcoins.
Well anything can happen and I hope we will see a pump after 2 years of bear market.
Thanks for information.
Cheers ,zeeshan.
Yep, that is a possibility as well. As long as bitcoin moves "in a normalized fashion" without a ton of volatility, altcoins can outperform.
I hope it will happen...
I have been waiting for 6 months
Wait for a decade and you'll be very happy 😉
it's a very long time but I'll keep waiting.
Many here have been waiting for more than 2 years... 6 months is nothing. :)
I kinda think alt season is no where near, at least not until btc reaches new ATH. Am not btc maximalist though, however, this bull run moght leave some alts behind.
I think for a really big altseason, like we saw in January of 2018, you are probably right. I think this will be more of a mini altseason.
what is an illiquid shitcoin, would not call STEEM that way, or we should call it that way?
Technically they are coins that have no demand so you can't even sell em if you want to. However, for his statement I think he simply means just about all altcoins. Even the liquid ones.
what is an illiquid shitcoin, would not call STEEM that way, or we should call it that way?
Shitcoins you can't sell, because nobody wants to buy them...
Keeping my fingers crossed for a BIG alt coin season !
I have been taking my alts into the BTC & ETH for a while now waiting for the boost there and I can then flow back into alts to take that rush higher
A past pattern that has also plaid out has been bitcoin first and the the altcoins... Where bitcoin runs up, pulls value from the altcoins and outside crypto, then when it pulls back and consolidates, money flows into altcoins. That may have to happen first again here as well. We shall see. That is what tends to happen for the really big altseasons. Perhaps we can see a smaller one with out that setup first.
what do you think about hive?
I feel its going down a bit more but not sure if its going to spike down or just trickle
I think HIVE is going to find support here in the low $.30s and begin its next leg up...
Thanks for the heads up.
I'm still waiting for my coin to go way past moon... With price well below 225 sats it is still leaning towards strong buy... When it goes above 2000 sats, it will change to weak sell...
How much BTC can you realize from selling your stack?
If I decide to sell everything, I would not sell below 20 BTC. However, I would like to HODL until the total value is above 50 BTC.
I am seeing more often now that people are "stacking sats" vs Alts. Alts seem super risky to me.
That could mean we are on the verge of a bitcoin run and an altcoin bloodbath. That is a possibility as well. In that instance the altseason would be delayed until after bitcoin has its fun.
The next 10 days will be interesting, leading us to the event of bitcoin halving.
But after that, it will be even more interesting.
If 2017 like show we anticipate in late 2021, then altcoin would perform like 2016. And 2022 will be mega-event for altcoin bull run.
Yes, that could be around the timeframe of the really big altcoin season, though I think it would be more like end of 2021 as opposed to 2022.
well it seems so people are getting into high levels the fomo can be definitely seen all around
FOMO is a strong motivator. Fear is a stronger emotion than Greed in terms of getting people to act.