Been waiting for these to come out. Here are Split Ticket's Wins Above Replacement models for the 2024 election. They have them both for the House and Senate races.

As you'd expect, people like Larry Hogan vastly overperformed. Hogan's WAR was R+17.3. About as good a candidate as Republicans could hope to field in Maryland, but he lost anyways.

Other Senate candidates with high WARs:

Amy Klobuchar of course- WAR of D+8.5.
Jon Tester- WAR of D+10.1. Hopefully he runs again.

Naturally Dan Osborn vastly overperformed with a WAR of D+17.7.

Two bright spots among non-incumbents:

Ruben Gallego- WAR of D+7.2!

Colin Allred- WAR of D+6.6! For context, Beto O'Rourke's WAR in 2018 was D+4.4, so Allred was a stronger candidate.

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