Saxon's Survival Hour #209: THE PROBABILITY OF NUCLEAR WAR

Today's excerpt begins on page 548 of The Survivor Volume 2.

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By Kurt Saxon Written in 1978

Although nuclear war becomes more pointless and suicidal each year, its threat looms ever larger.
Logically, such a threat is remote.
But since bureaucrats and politicians are seldom logical, nuclear war could occur at any time.

However, there are some misconceptions concerning nuclear war which makes its likelihood seem greater than it actually is at this time.

First, we are led to believe that Russia has a nuclear defense setup which would save up to 80% of its populace.
Such estimates are absurd.
Even if Russia had shelter capacity for the 200 some odd million people that figure represents, this would only make matters worse.

Surviving a major nuclear attack is only the beginning.
The devastation of the cities, industries, croplands, etc .. would insure the certain death of the majority of survivors.

Many seem to think they would simply load this vast horde of survivors on transports and have them invade America.
But aside from highly mobile weapons systems dodging American missiles on the world's oceans, Russian shipping would be pretty well wiped out.

If the Russians got in the first punch and destroyed America’s capability to fight outside our borders, so what?
To destroy America as a functional system is no guarantee of any successful Invasion.

The examples of past invasions of Russia and China should convince anyone that conquering continents takes more power than any nuclear survivors will have left.

America is vast.
2700 miles wide by 1600 miles thick.
On the occasions I’ve flown from coast to coast.
I’ve been impressed and even bored by the emptiness of our land.
The logistics of subduing all that space would be beyond the capability of even present day Russia.
Nuclear survivors would not even attempt it.

Besides, the Russians remember the problems facing the German invaders and the damage done to them by guerrillas.
The Russian guerrillas were amateurs, compared to Americans.
And the Americans didn’t have much luck subduing the Vietnamese.
Modern techniques of guerrilla warfare make the armed civilian more than a match for any army of occupation.

America has more weapons in civilian hands than are owned by the rest of the world combined.
Civilian disarmament is only a Liberal's fantasy.
Books on improvised weaponry are so widely distributed that even total confiscation of guns, if possible, would only be wasted effort.

Total surrender to Russia by our government, before a bomb was dropped, would serve only to destroy our government and bring on nationwide anarchy.
No Russian general would willingly send his men into a mess like that.

Too many people see Russia as a monolith just waiting for an excuse to attack.
The reasoning is that as they get hungrier they will have less and less to lose by attacking.

This would be logical except for the Chinese.
The Mongols were the most successful Invaders of Russia.
Their sheer numbers made them invincible.
Modern Chinese see the Mongols as their ancestors, although, technically, they weren't.
At any rate, the Chinese believe they have a right to Siberia and other areas controlled by Russia.

The Chinese and the Russians have hated each other for centuries and no similarity of ideology will change that.
Moreover, each considers the other, not America, to be the major threat to Its existence.

Russia has more men on the Sino-Soviet border than in the Warsaw Pact forces.
Estimates of Chinese military personnel and civilian militia on or near the border, prepared for invasion, are as high as 100 million.

Russians are so certain of a Chinese invasion that they won't allow a Chinese restaurant in their land, lest it harbor a spy.
That's just a little item which happens to be true.

The Chinese are just waiting for Russia to get into it with America.
Then they will pour across the Sino-Soviet border in waves of millions and millions, through the rain of atomic missiles, over the fortifications, and then on to Moscow.

The Russians know that a war with America would mean an automatic war with China.
No matter how desperate they become for food and resources, an adventure against the Americans would only set them up for slaughter by the Chinese.

So don't be bothered by Russian threats and political doubletalk over here.
But don't discount nuclear war as an impossibility.

America, Russia and China are becoming desperate for resources.
Russia and China have oil enough for their immediate goals, since only a small percentage of their supply is used by civilians.
But their future economy and military needs demand that they latch onto the fabulous wealth of Africa.

American politicians are just as intent on grabbing Africa's resources as are the others, but they are not so obvious about it.
Before he left office, Henry Kissinger was over there trying to get the Rhodesians to sell out and leave.
His next move would have been a similar arrangement with South Africa.
He felt confident that with the African whites out of the way, he could make solid agreements with the black nationalists.
Then, in gratitude to Kissinger for removing the whites, the blacks would sell their resources to America, rather than to the Russians or the Chinese.

Of course, the Russians and Chinese are arming the blacks and promising them all the weapons, and even foreign personnel, to do the job.
Whoever wins, it will be the same for the blacks as it was in the 19th century.
Whether a mine is operated by the Americans, Russians, or Chinese, the foreigners will got the minerals and the Africans will get the shaft.

During the 19th century.
Europeans divided Africa among themselves and there was little friction.
But three major powers who need so much will not make such divisions.
Each group wants it all.

I believe Africa will be where it really begins.
One confrontation after another is inevitable.
As the Russians commit more men and resources to Africa, the Chinese will send more men to the Sino-Soviet border.

Sooner or later, the Chinese will invade and the Russians, feartui ot America, will try to knock us out so we can't invade.
Then everyone with nuclear missiles will dump them on whatever foreign devil is handy.

This doesn't worry me since I’ve taken nuclear war into account.
Survival shelters of my design will keep the inhabitants safe for months.
In coming issues I detail such plans which any capable person can utilize.

Proposed and present Civil Defense survival shelters are mainly death traps, both the family and the group types.
A two-week survival shelter is an absurdity.
Your need for shelter and guaranteed sustenance will last for months, not weeks.

The idea is to have homes with as much area underground as above.
A foot of concrete, steel and earth between the shelter area and the above ground quarters would insure a family's survival from anything but a direct hit.

If you plan such a shelter, here is an instance where you should not tell your neighbors unless they too show the same interest in a permanent underground home.
In the meantime, you could still urge them to make such preparations as I've outlined before.
A person who prepares for one calamity is already well on the way to preparing for a worse one.

Of course, you probably couldn't keep such preparations secret from your neighbors anyway.
But don’t worry about that.
Once you are tucked in, you can wipe out anyone upstairs at the push of a button.
Holocaust, rioting, famine, plague, will not affect you.
You can stick your head out often enough to see how things are going.

In future issues I will detail survival homes anyone can build themselves with little money.
But unlike the publicized fallout shelters, useless now except for storage, these will be livable and an actual part of the home.
In this way. you won’t see such a shelter as simply an extra expense in your survival budget.

In the meantime, price home power plants.
A gasoline or methane driven generator will supply the electricity.
Several 55 gallon drums filled with fuel and water will last for months if used sparingly.

Grains bought in bulk and sprouted for humans and rabbits will insure against hunger.
Good books, tools, and good bunker mates will help pass the time.

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Kurt Saxon thought civilization would have collapsed by now.
He spent the majority of his life collecting knowledge of home based business.
His goal was for all his readers to survive at a more comfortable level than those that were less provident.

He knew the importance of communicating at a level folks could understand.
Most of what he has compiled for our benefit can be easily understood by everybody.

He also includes a subtle sense of humor.

You can find the majority of his life's work here.

Hear him read his stories.


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I agree that some guerilla warriors could be more professional than soldier in an army.