I am not really sure how things will play out but I do think the first few days of the season will be rough and the number of chests will be quite low. Anyone without much investment into their deck will probably suffer because the focus points at the start will really suck. Maybe the average chests we get will go up if we let the rest of the season play out as there is a huge difference in focus points depending on whether or not you are in Bronze, Silver, Gold, or Diamond.
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Its a lot tougher than last season and if you get a 'bad' splinter then its frustration.