@thepeoplesguild Ultimate Card Pack Challenge!! Jimmy!

Packs. Well here’s a whole can of worms lol!!

But… since you asked… @thepeoplesguild

It seems to be widely regarded that $2 was the ‘sweet spot’ for standard Splinterlands packs. I have heard this sentiment from SO many community members, team members, whales, minnows etc, etc etc. Many of these same people will also express some regret that we ‘can’t go back’ to $2 packs since we have since sold two core sets at $4/pack.
Personally, I agree with the sentiment that $2 core packs were the sweet spot. But ‘we can’t go back’?? That I do not agree with. Not one bit.

I have heard arguments from many sides, a ‘big one’ being that future $2 packs will somehow ‘devalue’ the cards that were sold in $4 packs. The fact is, the market will decide the value of cards once OOP. This value is based on, primarily, utility (hence demand) and scarcity.
Once a core set goes out of print, market factors kick in. The current price of the cards then COMPLETELY decouples from the price the packs were originally sold at. It makes ZERO difference later on the secondary market if packs were initially sold at $2, $4, $1 or $20.
We can take a quick look at Untamed… $2 packs but still has some of the priciest cards available. CL was sold at $4 but endless sales, promo incentives to buy and flip packs and a ridiculous overprint reduced value drastically, even though they are great playing cards. $4 RB packs keep card prices TOO high since too few players are buying packs and card liquidity is too low.
If RB is super scarce and the cards are useful in battle, this, in theory, should support RB card prices staying high as long the demand remains or expands. If the next set is sold for $2/pack, one can even argue that this will help KEEP RB card prices higher!

I am firmly of the belief that in order to be successful, and for SPL to see ANY semblance of mass adoption, this game needs to be priced correctly and we need to have an affordable and realistic entry point for new players WITH THE CURRENT CORE SET. Gating even low level participation through a ridiculous price wall is marketing suicide. And don’t come back with “Well Chaos Legion is cheap, they can buy those cards.” I’ve heard this argument used consistently, and it’s irrelevant. It misses the point entirely, fails to look to the near future, and completely ignores the ongoing cycle with cards rotating out of modern and the CURRENT SET needing to be affordable in order for players to WANT to participate. Saying new players should be happy to buy our scraps instead of new things is unfortunately the essence of this ‘cheap CL’ argument and, again, marketing suicide.

I’m NOT saying we should just spew out tons of cheap cards, or it should be super cheap to play in champ. NO. I’m saying we need to find the sweet spot. $2 for a pack of 5 digital cards is not cheap. But it is relatively affordable. And does not flood the market with ‘too many cards’, $2 is high enough a price barrier to prevent that. Charging $4 for a pack of 5 cards puts this game into another category altogether regarding pricing, and drastically restricts, reduces, and even eliminates participation. Participation AND sales.
This game has been struggling ever since we have gone to $4 packs. Pricing is a real part of why in my opinion. Of course many factors need to be taken into consideration, but pricing is one of these factors that gets consistently ignored as being one of things that needs to be seriously looked at.
I am of the belief that one of the reasons we cannot get new players is that prices are too high, too exclusive, and that $4 packs have a significant impact on this situation.
How do we get even 10,000 new players if too few people can afford to play???
We can’t.

The way this game has been created regarding card rarity and leveling through combining is absolutely brilliant. But given the quantity of cards needed to be combined to max a card, $4 packs makes this ridiculously expensive and exclusive. $2 packs makes these numbers a lot more realistic while keeping card prices up. $2 packs does not automatically equate to dirt cheap cards. It helps create a much more accessible market and helps establish a more realistic floor.
The brilliant way cards level in this game also points to the need to bring back league caps and competition at lower levels, but that’s another discussion.

Another thing that blows my mind is that we have seen blockchain pack projects for YEARS now. It is obvious that offering multiple packs sizes/prices/options is a popular and SUCCESSFUL business model. Yet for some reason we have not adopted this low hanging fruit in the SPL ecosystem!

The following are not ‘worked out’ numbers, but more ‘off the cuff’ examples of different packs we can offer in the SPL shop. I will point out that pricing is based on my firm belief that $2 core packs (w/5 cards) IS the sweet spot and should be the pricing we use moving forward.
$4 packs exclude too many people. I personally know a TON of current players who do NOT buy ANY packs at $4, but would buy plenty of packs, daily, at $2. I am one of those players.
I would even be willing to bet that we generate MORE revenue if we sell packs at $2 instead of $4. Meaning, we would sell MORE THAN 2x the quantity. This also creates a healthy secondary market. As of this writing, a new player can not buy a full RB set off the market if they wanted to. This shows a major problem with card liquidity, and indicates an unhealthy (ie overpriced) market. When a set is in print, the market should have plenty of liquidity at reasonable prices. Once a set is out of print demand rises (due to a constantly expanding player base). In theory.

Here are some different pack price ideas I think we might consider offering in the SPL shop. Again, I base this off the $2 price for the core set, standard, 5 card pack we have now. All packs have standard GF drop rates, I would not want to see that increased.

$.50 - single card packs. NO rarity guarantee, standard drop rates. (.50/card)
$1.25 - 3 card packs. NO rarity guarantee, standard drop rates. (.41/card)
$2 - 5 card packs, 1x rare or better guaranteed, standard drop rates (.40/card)
$5.50 - 15 card packs. 3x rare or better guaranteed, standard drop rates (.366/card)
$25 - 75 card packs, 18x rare or better guaranteed, very slightly higher E chances (.333/card)
$100 - 330 card packs, 75x rare or better, very slightly higher E and L chances (.30/card)

I believe there being no rarity guarantee for the 1 and 3 card packs is a helpful feature… it’s very easy to want to impulsively roll the dice real quick for $.50, or even $1.25. High sales of these packs will help with common card generation since there is no rarity guarantee per every 5 cards sold. It will also balance the slightly higher rarity generation of the larger packs.
(I’m also not sure if the 15 card pack would be needed. Thoughts?).

Packs can be added to the chests as well and distributed proportionally. With single card packs being more abundant obviously, and maybe even allowing the larger packs as rare jackpot prizes.
Ah, packs in chests. Another thing that the removal of has reduced fun and excitement from the game for real players. All in the name of reducing extraction by bot farms. Packs in chests is an ESSENTIAL way to hook human players!! The FUN of opening packs has been completely and utterly forsaken and dismissed, failing to recognize the incredible marketing tool that it is!!

Using the estimated 3400 packs needed to statistically open a full champ level deck, The above pricing gives us the cost of $5,151 to buy enough packs to statistically max a deck using the best deal ($100 packs). Or $6,800 at $2 pack prices. These are not ‘cheap’ card prices by any means. As we can see, this is still a considerable cost to open a champ deck!! We are not flooding the market with ‘super cheap’ cards in this situation!
Compare this to the $13,600 it takes to max a RB set from packs. I consider THIS price tag to be absolutely ridiculous, a HUGE barrier of entry, and a big part of the reason we continue to lose loyal and previously enthusiastic players. (I need to point out that I’m not speculating about the latter, I have been told this personally by several ‘larger’ and heavily invested players).

In any case, I consider pricing to be one of the biggest obstacles Splinterlands needs to overcome if we have any serious desire to go mainstream. There are many ways to approach this, I just pray we consider multiple options before locking ourselves into $4 / 5 card packs forever. If we make a mistake (and many people seem to believe $4 packs are a mistake), we need to own up and fix it.