Pack Prices History!
So packs in the past when Splinterlands used to be young with a small loyal player base that came almost exclusively from Steemit cost 2$ and they also had a limited print rate. It wasn't until late in the Untamed set that the game became popular and there simply were not enough cards after it was sold out for everyone which skyrocketed the prices.
In one way this was good because all players who bought packs were in profit and there was a lot of demand because it was impossible to buy while at the same time the game was simply not affordable for new players during the period in between the next set. I remember the time that just to get a basic Silver deck, it would cost 700$ by no means owning all the cards. Nowadays for ~600$ you can get a Max Level Chaos Legion Deck which is just insane.
So what happened is that the devs Doubled the Price to 4$ for a pack while increasing the supply to 10 Million packs while at the same time reducing the DEC burn value to cash in on the hype which was great in the short term but created a massive oversupply and a new player base that got absolutely wrecked on their investment causing most of them to leave the ecosystem. Many also no longer bought packs for the new set after this experience which made Rebellion which also cost 4$ underperform even the lowest expectations.
The Pack Price Dilemma!
So right now with a lot fewer players in the game and older cards that lost a lot of their use case, the big question is if they should keep the price at 4$ or lower it again.
If the price is kept at 4$, it is way too expensive to get into the game compared to the rewards but it could help to keep the value of older cards up.
If the price is lowered, it would make Splinterlands way more accessible but it could hurt Rebellion Card prices as they were sold more expensive.
The Only Thing That Matters!
In the end, the only real thing that matters right now is to get more players into the game and enjoy the experience. Attracting new players so far has always been the result of economic incentives. Players came in and bought packs because they saw older cards and packs had gone up in value while earnings expectations were great. The moment this started to reverse and there was an outlook that buying packs was a sure way to lose money with earnings that were only a fraction of what they used to be the new player inflow totally collapsed.
In the last 6 months, only ~400 Spellbooks were actually sold which is largely because the entry cost is too high and the profit expectation is too low.
The Current Pack Price Plan!
From what I understand, nothing will be changed and the price of a Conclave Arcana pack will still be 4$ (at DEC Peg). This because the main fear is that lowering it will devalue the Rebellion Set.
What is on the table is to have cheaper packs that only have regular foil Common and Rare cards to give new players an entry-level. To me, this is rather confusing and underwhelming as it feels it only really creates frustration since most of the normal packs do have 4 commons and 1 rare in them when opened.
Why A Price Reduction is Due!
I think it's another mistake to keep the Packs prices high and to make complicated constructions with cheaper packs. The reality is that if a price increase was implemented because the demand was so high, a price reduction would be on place now that the demand is low. Also don't forget that in the past there was no expense in needing SPS staked to play. So not only are pack prices high, you also need to invest in SPS.
A good middle ground I would say is to just lower pack prices to 3$ (at DEC Peg)
A New Game Mode is Needed!
I'm not calling Survival mode a new game mode as it's pretty much exactly the same as modern & Wild with a small twist to it and it comes with an increases SPS inflation. I strongly stick to the idea that new players need to be able to come in and play the game at it's maximum fun without needing a massive investment or a complicated renting process.
A game mode where everyone is on a level playing field and where the entry fee is an indirect way to buy the new packs. only max level cards and these are provided by those who own them and lock them on land which gives them part of the entry fee. Right now card holders are constantly diluted which makes no sense as it remains the main asset everyone owns in the game.
Conclusion!
The price of packs in the past was increased because of the bigger demand and not lowering them again while the demand plummeted feels like the next mistake in line that will make it not attractive for new players to come in as the investment simply is way too high compared to the potential rewards. Splinterlands needs a fun new game mode (not survival) which also is affordable in order to really attract more players. The way things are going right now it all feels like the game will stay very nice with more and more whales leaving while no new ones are coming in.
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It seems like regardless if packs cost $4, $2 or even $1 Splinterlands really needs a major capital injection. I think getting new players is a hard way to do it. Easier way would have been to pump the SPS token so that rewards are attractive then market the rewards and token to the general crypto community then new players will come.
I agree that pricing should follow demand. CL was a success even at $4 because of high demand. Now we saw how poorly succeeding packs did and this should be considered in pricing the next set. We need new players and $4 per pack is not an attractive entry point.
!BBH