HTH Auction Update

If you are a Splinterlands gamer, likely you know that the team is auctioning one card every day for 100 days. So far 66 regular foil cards and 3 gold foil cards were sold for 103,094,946 DEC. In addition to that the Legends Promo card raised 576,629,000 DEC. As per the promo card proposal the team asked from the DAO 600M DEC. Then the sales revenue would go directly to the DAO. Adding the two numbers (576+103)= 679M DEC and counting, I say DAO investment is nicely in the green! Phew, dodged a bullet! There were so many naysayers mentioned that DAO you NEVER get its money back! I say this is time to eat your hat!

With that said, the Heloise the Hollow, the over powered Auction card, still has about 1/3 of sales to go. Let us see how are the sales numbers doing so far. I did the last update here, and here.

Each regular card auction sale is represented by a blue dot. I didn't plot the gold foil because it is 3 sales and an order of magnitude more expensive, so difficult to plot on a linear scale. Also GF sales can be easily shown using a table.

Analysis

If we look at the regular price sales, the price is indeed going down. This is an expensive card, based on every standards. Also while it is fun to play, and powerful, but it is neither a must have card, nor it is card that you can play blindly and win every battle. So again, kudos to TCMT and the team to balance this card properly.

At the end of first 20 sales, I wrote the following

So, this above is the sold price of the first 19 cards. The reason, I plotted it this way to show the absolute minimum price, which is 1,050,000 DEC, marked by the dashed yellow line; and also the 'floor' price, which you can call the base of the most common price, which is the green dashed line at 1,320,000 DEC.

Except for the initial dip (I call it the VV dip after @vettev), I say that 1.3M floor was held through the first 30 days. Yeah, I was putting in a lot of floor bid during that time. But, as I got busy around December, Christmas Holidays, and last min business travels to blame; the price drifted below 1.2M DEC. During 30 to 50 days, prices stayed 1.2 to 1.0M still. Which I believe a fair price. However, past 50 days we firmly broke 1M DEC and now trading in the 700K range.

Looking at this, I have the following recommendations to @yabapmatt :

• Do not do another auction card anytime soon
• Next time, better do 50 cards, and GF every 10th.

Suggestions for existing HTH holders

As a senior owner of this card so far (no pun intended, I purchased 8 so far!), here are the things you might want to consider. These are all open ended solutions, and each have their own benefits

• Do nothing! Let the free market dictate the price (prices will drift downwards)
• Those that paid 1M DEC plus, you might want to consider averaging down. You can own more cards at current prices and cheaper. You can potentially control greater share of the market, and if new players come (?), these cards should rent well (it is not renting currently). If you don't you always run the risk of a few 'traders' buy them at cheap and try and flip them later

Again, these are just suggestions. I know what I will do: I plan to control more than 10% of the supply of an ultra-rare card that is excellent in battles! My average is about 1.1M, and I plan to bring it down.