Governing Dynamics, Gentleman! (and ladies!)

The post title is a quote from the movie The Beautiful Mind where young Dr. John Nash was having a conversation in a pub at Princeton where he supposed got the idea the a century old economic theory by Adam Smith could be wrong. Dr. Nash wrote his PhD thesis on game theory and proposed:

In non-cooperative games, a solution concept is a situation where no player could gain by changing their own strategy (holding all other players' strategies fixed)

A concept that is called Nash Equilibrium later on, and has numerous applications in competitive bidding, energy economics, politics, gambling, social networks and peoples behavior. An area of economics and mathematics, generally called the Governing Dynamics.

Generated with AI DALL-E3 ∙ August 28, 2024 at 5:47 PM: Using Prompt: thinking about governing dynamics

Governing dynamics also deals with natural process where the variables causing a particular process are so many, and their relationships are so complex, that the processes would seem like they are random. Like motion of leaves falling from the tree depicted in this AI generated image.

The reason of my long pre-amble is try and describe the events happening at our social network Hive over the last week or so due to a simple poll started by @solominer which triggered my hive user data analysis, which triggered @galenkp and @slobberchops to write their post and subsequent discussions that occured. I know my last sentence was long and it is intentional :) Now, some might call this 'random', while I will say that perhaps it was the governing dynamics. My intent was deliberate.

Top 2500 Hive Accounts

Yep. At the risk of developing carpel tunnel, I have accumulated Top 2500 HP hive accounts in a spreadsheet. That takes the HP down to 4500 (4503 to be exact). Mind you that is down into the Minnow territory, if you are following up our terminology at the hive ocean. I will plot all the data together and then zoom into the area 4500 - 14,000 or 20,000 to have some overlap with previous plots.

Here is all the data. HP in log-scale along X-axis; Reputation in linear scale along Y-axis; Author rewards as circle size.

This is the big picture view. Take a pause, and try and understand what you see. It is a lot of data. That is 158M staked hive you are looking at, plus 17M liquid hive, total of
175M hive. With about 300 M total hive outside of exchanges, that is about 60% of total hive out there! What I am meaning to say, you are looking at a significant portion of our pocket book. Please don't argue on the accuracy of my back on the envelop calculation, my point is this is a lot of hive and the pattern that it is showing should be sinnificant.

1. There are few account above 1M HP (there are 24)
2. Only 3-4 individuasl writes regular blogs anything in that area
3. Above 500K HP only 40 accounts, quite a few are holding account
4. Regular bloggers starts in the 300K HP area, they are far and few in that upper area
5. Regular bloggers rapidly increases below 150K area, and their reputation also spreads out, like a funnel

I hope you can see these things and our 'classes' in the same plot.

I also want to pause here and think about a new hive blogger. The type I am trying to get say from Splinterlands game or wherever. That person must follow the path shown by the curved red arrow. That new bloggers HP must follow along the path of that red line! I know a few people for 5-6 years, and they are still on that read path but below 50K HP. That path of honesty, without any outside money in, is hard!

Krampus Co-Efficient

Some asked me where did I get Krumpus? He is sort of anti-Santa Claus as I understand it.

The Krampus is a horned anthropomorphic figure who, in the Central and Eastern Alpine folkloric tradition, is said to accompany Saint Nicholas on visits to children during the night of 5 December (Krampusnacht; "Krampus Night"), immediately before the Feast of St. Nicholas on 6 December. In this tradition, Saint Nicholas rewards well-behaved children with small gifts, while Krampus punishes badly behaved ones with birch rods.

As I mentioned in my previous post too there won’t be any birch rod judgement from my end. I am just looking and asking you to do the same.

If I divide Author Rewards + Curation Rewards by Held HP, people who held more HP than they earn will have a fraction less than 1.0. Those who held less HP will have a fraction higher than 1.0. This is the Krampus Co-efficient! Or KE.

KE = (Author Rewards + Curation Rewards)/Held HP

KE = 1.0, you hold exactly as you earn (approximately!)
KE > 1.0, you hold less than you earn
KE < 1.0, you hold more than you earn

There is no need to get through the intermediate steps any more, because by now you are familiar with the process, if not see here. We will go straight to KE plot for all the users in the top 2500

Again ignore the curation accounts, as they pay out curation reward to their delegators. They are supposed to be high KE.

But do you notice some of the old timers??

v4vapid? kevinwong? nah they are long gone hopefully... Oh there is also ned, but he is off the chart, well just for ned I will show you a different plot.

Yeah, you can read some of these names, check their accounts and chuckle!! That's all I am saying about that!!

Back at Middle Class

Here is what you saw at the comment section of the @slobberchops post. The chart is fairly self explanatory by now. If you have any questions please let me know.

I will still say, I am okay with this result. I think this opens up a lot of opportunities for us stakeholders.

We get to do what is right for us AND the community!

And that folks is Governing Dynamics!