I took the Monthly fib based on bear market lows and bull run highs.
First we have never tested the MA 62 in Monthly except during the Covid crash in March 2020, and the last 5 months of 2022 from June to October, for now the MA 62 is solid support but if we closed bellow next target is 50% fib!!!
On the first two cycles of Bitcoin, so since 2010 and from 2011 to 2015 we have never tested the 38.2% of fib, but the last 2 cycles from 2015 to 2018, and then from 2018 to 2022 we have tested the 38.2% fib in 2018 and during our 2022 bear market, we even closed below 38.2% fibo.
The 14.5K on the 50% fibo, seems to me a good support, first it will be the first time the BTC will test the 50% fib.
The second reason for 14.5K is that we have a lot that Long with medium leverage so between 3X to 5X and we can see it clearly on the King fisher liquidation map via the big peaks around 17K to 14K and which have been there for a long time.
The 14.5K will be a level to get to the cycle of depression and rage (after the capitulation that the market is going through now), and at that time we will have reached the 14.5K it's going to talk about targets like 8K to 3K and many will be waiting for the 12K to 10K, and when everyone is waiting for lower to buy, so fear will sell in loss on the red to supposedly buy lower, and then I imagine a boring range in a bearish channel that will force many small fish to sell at a loss, before the top exit and the return of the bullish trend will take by surprise everyone who has fallen into depression and rage.
- BTC from 2015 to 2022: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Xvow6dEF/
- BTC from 2010 to 2015: https://www.tradingview.com/x/JX4aGIMf/
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