Will the Scottish independence movement succeed and will the UK break up? [ENG/UA]

On the 27th of March 2023, the Scottish National Party elected a new leader and Scotland gained a new first minister. 38 year old Hamza Yusuf will now lead Scottish efforts to break away from the United Kingdom and become a separate sovereign state. But many are now wondering whether hopes for statehood are fading against a backdrop of Brexit, falling public support for separation and internal divisions within the independence movement. There are now real questions about the prospects for success. So has the quest for an independent Scotland had its moment?

Around the world there are many groups seeking independence, however, only a tiny few ever succeed. Since the turn of the millennium, almost a quarter of a century ago, there have been just two new members of the United Nations through this route, Montenegro and South Sudan. For the vast majority of these groups and territories, however, the dream of independence goes unrealized. In some cases, it's defeated by repression and military means when a government cracks down on separatist sentiment. At other times, a political settlement offers greater cultural rights or autonomy, and the widespread calls for independence start to decline. This raises the question of whether we can, in fact, think of an independence moment for countries, a point when things seem to come together and open the way for it to break away and become an independent, sovereign state. One possible example is Scotland. Although it rejected independence in 2014, it seems to be edging closer to statehood following Britain's decision to leave the European Union. Over recent years, polling had shown a small but consistent lead for statehood. However, things now appear to be changing.

Scotland lies in the northern part of the British Isles at around 80,000km² or 30,000mi². This amounts to roughly a third of the entire area of the United Kingdom. As an independent country, it would be the 115th largest member of the United Nations. Its population currently stands at 5.5 million. This is about 8% of the entire British population of around 67 million. Scotland has a long and fascinating history, having emerged as a kingdom in the middle of the ninth century, around a hundred years before England. The two countries began to unite at the start of the 17th century. The first step came in 1603, when James VI of Scotland assumed the English throne following the death of his cousin, Queen Elizabeth, the first, thus bringing the two crowns together. A century later, on the 1st of May 1707, the two countries established a political union when their parliaments agreed to unite to create Great Britain, the forerunner of today's United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

This constitutional arrangement remained largely unchanged for the next 300 years. However, a referendum held in 1997 saw Scotland vote to re-establish a permanent Scottish Parliament and a separate Scottish administration within the United Kingdom. The following year, the British Parliament passed the Scotland Act. This outlined the powers of the new Scottish Government and identified several so-called reserved matters that fell beyond the authority of the Scottish institutions. These included foreign affairs, defence and significant constitutional issues, including the Union of the Kingdoms of England and Scotland. However, Section 30 of the Act permitted control over these areas to be passed back to Scotland with the agreement of the British government. This became significant when, in May 2011, the Scottish National Party won 69 at the 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament. Having long campaigned for independence, it now pressed the case for a vote on separation. In October 2012, the British and Scottish Governments agreed to allow the Scottish Parliament to pass the necessary legislation for a referendum on statehood. On the 18th of September 2014 the people of Scotland went to the polls in what was widely billed as a once in a generation vote on independence. Ultimately, though, they chose to remain a part of the United Kingdom. On a turnout of 85% of Scotland's 4.2 million registered voters, 55% voted against independence.

Under usual circumstances, this would have settled the matter for the foreseeable future. However, everything changed less than two years later, when on the 23rd of June 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum. On continued European Union membership, while the UK voted to leave by 52 to 48%, an overwhelming 62% of Scottish voters opted to remain within the EU. As a result, there were calls for a new independence vote, as many saw it. The decision to pull Scotland out of the European Union, despite the overwhelming will of the Scottish people, to remain in the EU, fully justified another referendum. However, the British government refused. While not ruling out another vote in the future, it argued it was too soon and that Brexit was enough of a change to manage without dealing with the added complexity of a new independence campaign. Nevertheless, calls for another vote continued to grow and was strengthened in December 2019, when the Scottish National Party won 48 of Scotland's 59 seats in the British Parliament after standing on an explicitly pro-independence platform.

This came to a head when Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's first minister, wrote to the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, calling for the necessary powers to hold a new vote. However, he quickly rejected the request, arguing that the 2014 vote had been a once in a generation decision. Undaunted, the Scottish Parliament now passed a law setting out the legislative framework for future referendums in Scotland. This was followed by a draft law for a new independence referendum to be held by October 2023. This, of course, raised a significant constitutional question under the terms of the 1998 Scotland Act. As a result, the matter came before the British Supreme Court, while the Scottish government argued that it did in fact have the power to legislate for a referendum on Scottish independence. The court unanimously rejected this in November 2022. A significant defeat for independence efforts. Just four months later, in February 2023, Nicola Sturgeon, who had come to dominate the independence debate, suddenly announced that after eight years she was standing down as the SNP leader and as Scotland's first Minister. The following month the SNP elected Humza Yousaf as its new leader, two days later The Scottish Parliament confirmed him as Scotland's new first Minister. So how has all this affected the prospects for independence?

First of all, there's clearly solid resistance to a new referendum within the British government. While the 2014 referendum took place under a conservative Prime minister, David Cameron, none of the later conservative prime ministers Theresa may, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and now Rishi Sunak has wanted to risk another vote that could succeed. None of them wanted to be the Prime Minister who lost Scotland. This presents a severe problem for Scotland, especially now that the Supreme Court has closed off an alternative constitutional route to separation. While many within the independence movement would like to see Scotland press ahead with a vote even without the British government's permission. This would be a dangerous move, as Catalonia's attempted unilateral secession in 2017 showed there will be intense international opposition. Many countries face separatist challenges within their borders and therefore oppose endorsing breakaway movements elsewhere. Aside from the fact that the UK could also block Scotland from joining the United Nations, Spain and other EU members would almost certainly stop it from entering the European Union. This would leave a nominally independent Scotland outside of the international system.

Secondly, there's Brexit. While Scotland voted overwhelmingly against Brexit, the realities of leaving the EU seem to have affected the debate over Scottish statehood. Undoubtedly, being dragged out of the European Union was highly unpopular in Scotland and underpinned pro-independence sentiment during the Brexit negotiations. However, since Britain formally left the EU, there's been a shift in views. In particular, there have been growing concerns about the prospects of a hard border between Scotland and England, which would remain Scotland's most important economic partner, even if it left the United Kingdom. This is significant because polling has repeatedly shown a close link between the expected economic costs and benefits of leaving the UK and support for independence. In response, pro-independence supporters argue that there may in fact be an alternative. The recent agreement between Britain and the European Union, which allows Northern Ireland to remain part of the EU's single market in certain areas and at the same time be a part of what's now called the UK Single Market may offer a model for Scotland to follow. This may be possible, but it's far from certain. The EU could reach a compromise over Northern Ireland because of the peace process that existed and needed to be protected. But it's unclear whether it would do the same again for Scotland. All this seems to suggest that there's enough nervousness about the broader effects of all this to swing certain elements of public opinion back to remaining within the United Kingdom, even outside of the European Union.

Thirdly, the domestic political situation in Scotland has also played an important part. There's no doubt that Nicola Sturgeon was one of the most significant political figures of recent times, not only in Scotland but across the UK. And the SNP has been extraordinarily successful. But like any party that rules too long, support inevitably wanes. This has seen some of its voters shift back to the Labour Party, which officially remains solidly unionist in outlook, and even the Conservatives have seen a small revival of fortunes. On top of this, there's been increasing infighting between SNP factions over various issues and within the broader Scottish independence movement more generally. Finally, and most recently the SNP has also been hit by a scandal that's just seen Nicola Sturgeon's husband, the former chief executive of the SNP, arrested over party finances.

Of course, none of this is likely to have affected the views of the 40 to 45% of the population that remains solidly pro-independence. But these factors will seemingly have shifted perceptions amongst what we can call the soft independence supporters. This crucial middle ground is open to statehood, but has concerns about its implementation and effects. This is seemingly supported by polling that's not only shown a swing in favour of the traditional parties in Scotland that favour the link between Scotland and the United Kingdom, but it's also seen a slight but consistent decline in support for independence. So does all this really mean that independence is now off the agenda? Of course not. There's still a solid and significant body of support for statehood. However, it does mean that the conditions for staging a referendum, let alone winning it, have undoubtedly become far more challenging. More. Moreover, if things are to change, it will need a combination of a fresh start for the SNP and the fractured independence movement, a continuation of the economic problems caused by Brexit and a British government that's finally open to allowing another referendum.