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Happy New Year and Happy Power Up Day! 😃 Time to recap the last cycle and outline the roadmap for the years ahead. If history repeats, Hive holders are in for a slow and patience‑testing bear phase — just like last time.
I hit my 20k HP target for 2025 and rebalanced a bit. At the 2021 peak I held ~3k HP after taking profit between $1–3, flipped the bear market, and ended up around 25k Hive at the 2025 top. This time I’ll hold more HP through the bear, currently 19k, and continue my monthly power‑up posts. Long‑term I’m aiming for 50–100k HP by next cycle.
2026 goal: 20k HP, 1k HBD, and a larger trading stack.😃
“Not a classic PUD — this is a cycle log. Sometimes you power down to power up bigger. Same rhythm as last bear, just with more experience. This post is a recap of the previous Hive cycle and a roadmap for how I plan to navigate the next one.”
Weekly Chart — How the Cycle Played Out
If you've been following along, I think we did well! In 2024–2025 we mapped the descending triangle, identified the bottom, and tracked the multi‑month accumulation (blue circle). Then came the A‑rally to $0.7 (yellow circle), followed by the B‑wave correction back to the (green circle) in 2025.
I expected a final C‑rally like last cycle, but it never came — which meant I didn’t reach my HBD target. It is what it is.
Including my TA thoughts as usual, as I want to track my ideas. In multiple previous post I where talking about
we're doing the opposite of the previous cycle... Mirroring Steemits previous cycle and we've seen descending triangles break down over and over again. Its not good. Same rules, must get above 200 MA on daily at $0.2139 to be optimistic
I DCA’d out from $0.22–0.17 as the structure was clearly bearish, aiming for a better average and re‑entry when strength returned. That strength is now showing with our second bullish divergence since the 2025 top, aligning with the macro BTC roadmap I shared the day after the local bottom.
https://ecency.com/hive-167922/@digi-me/codex-viii-another-trick-the
I documented all six divergences in the last Hive bear cycle
Today I summarize them — and show how the same rhythm is forming again.
🎯 Codex Reflection — Hive Bear Cycle Rhythm
2021 — cycle peak in nov
2022 — Descending triangle + death cross → classic bear start. 3 daily bullish divergences → 50–150% bounces in febr, june and dec.
2023 — 2 bullish divergences → 30–70% bounces in june and aug.
2024 — 1 bullish divergences in July → marked bottom after Descending triangle breakdown → 350% rally to Jan 2025 peak
2025 — Descending triangle + death cross → mirrors 2022. So far 2 bullish divergences: April (50%) + December (atm 37%)
Confluence: Every bullish divergence (yellow mark) marked a bottom until price touched the daily 200MA (red line) to form a lower high. If history repeats, a bounce to the 200MA (≈$0.17) is likely before continuation. As mentioned in previous post:
In the next rally we will see a bearish retest of the breakdown lvl at +-$0.17, rejection = confirmation of cycle is done imo.
If the rhythm mirrors the last cycle, four more divergences could form, with divergence #6 again aligning with a potential cycle low. In confluence with weekly chart is how I caught the 2024 bottom.
We’re at divergence #2 — and last time this led to years of lower highs/lower lows before capitulation. Invalidation: reclaim the 200MA and form higher highs/higher lows.
Also interesting: the 2025 peak was exactly the bottom of the 2022 descending triangle. If that repeats, the 2028/29 peak could align around ~$0.17.
I don’t wanna hold through bear markets — I navigate them. 15% curation vs. multi‑hundred‑percent swings. I take my risk, as always, as last cycle, and trade off‑chain for precision. And I will come back with much more HP during the cycle. 🙏
“Long‑time readers know I called the 2024 capitulation and the July bottom live in early PUD posts, and that I mapped the entire A‑ and B‑wave structure in real time. The only deviation this cycle was the missing C‑wave. What I share isn’t opinion — it’s the structure the chart has shown all along. And if the bear cycle continues to play out, I rebalance simply to extract extra Hive from the divergences — it’s just cycle‑based capital management.”
For my own reference. Fractal worked, but no C-wave in cycle 2025. 👇
The fractal im tracking so I remember it.🚀 (*pricetargets change as you adapt to new data, but the moves will unfold as it have until now)
A big rally to $1.2 - $1.7 ish the next months, and a big rejection likely to correct to $0.6-0.7 to flip it over to support after it breaks. Just like the previous cycle, this would make for a very juicy swing trade. Sell in yellow circle, buyback in green for the last stage which should hopefully lead to a new ATH. All 3 phases lasted about 3 months each.
See my latest TA on the crypto market here: 🌀 Codex Brief Follow‑Up: Codex VIII Delivered
Happy PUD and PUM, see you next month. Have a great week. Bye! 😃
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HIVE POWER UP DAY 1.dec 2025 and #HIVE TA 🚀
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Spot on again. It's look very unlikely for Hive to make a new ATH this cycle, it's broken like the broader market and more downside is ahead of us. I wish I could exit some around the next local top to boost my trading bags too but it's a hassle to power down with the relatively little stake I have here. Thanks for the update :)
Thanks, takhar — appreciate you. I’m just managing risk the same way I did last cycle. Taking a bit off into local tops and buying back lower has helped me grow my stake previous bear. So I’m just following the process. Glad you’re following the Codex reflection this post gave.
And Happy New Year to you! 😊
Might just adopt this process as it's a sound one that I want to implement, good trade opportunities between tops and bottoms to grow one's stake further.
Thanks, have a wonderful new year with many good surprises :)
Sounds good, takhar — it’s a simple process but it works well in volatile markets. Just take it slow and let the structure guide you. Wishing you a strong start to the new year! 😊
Happy New Year 2026!
According to your TA there is more pain (as far Hive price is concerned) in the near/medium future. I see that you have been powering down.
Happy New Year, nenio! Thank you for visitng 😀
Yes — the descending triangle was bearish, so I took some profit around 0.20 to free up capital. I prefer to buy strength, not weakness. We’re now in our second bull divergence on the daily, so I’ve already bought back exposure — but I do it on an exchange since HBD pricing isn’t always ideal for trading.
If history repeats, 0.17 is the natural target before we revisit the lows again or make a lower low. For me the market stays bearish until proven otherwise: reclaim the daily 200MA and show a proper HH + HL structure. Until then I treat this as a relief move inside a broader downtrend.
Wow that's some solid retrospective TA and wisdom to help with navigating the current cycle. It seems Hive token value gets kicked around so much by the trends of the other tokens on their downswings. I have bought in a few times on this downswing and now I am just waiting to see if it pays off quickly or I have again missed that last pulse down. It all comes out winning in the end but another phase down due to the goofiness in world finance right now makes me think it will be a while til sentiment reverses but we will see.
In the meantime, might as well power up a little as these seemingly lower reward author efforts magically turn into more value to the stake later so it is like deferred earnings. then remember how much of a gift this discount Hive is later on when it bounces back. I am leaving my Hive stake where it is!
Thanks for the thoughtful comment — and you're right, Hive often gets dragged around by broader market flows. We're still early in the larger structure, and historically Hive has needed several bullish divergences before a real cycle reversal sticks. If the roadmap repeats, the major bottom is still ahead, not behind us.
Accumulating on value zones and powering up during these phases has usually paid off over the long arc, but the real sentiment shift only comes once Hive breaks above the key levels again. Until then, it's patience and positioning.
I dont really see Hive having another bull run, the next leg down will continue, similar to the pattern of WAXP.
Appreciate the input @mypathtofire. Checked the WAXP chart and ended up taking a long. HL on the retest, W‑breakout, and the same pattern is showing up across several alts. Might be some alpha here… let’s see if we get the output 😄 Have a nice weekend and tagging only commenters of this post @takhar @nenio @ph1102 @zekepickleman @ekavieka
Thanks for input! You where right sub $0,1 before eoy, I waited for confirmation of the descending triangle. Well well..
The next leg down is definitely possible. I’m just mapping the cycle as it unfolds and taking it phase by phase. Time will show where the real bottom forms.
Happy New Year!
It's a pity that your 1.4-1.9 USD prediction didn't happen, but I do agree with your estimate for the next top... It would be much lower than many expect...
Thanks, and Happy New Year to you too. The 1.4–1.9 zone didn’t come, but the structure made it clear early that the top would land much lower. I’m just following the chart step by step and letting the bigger cycle play out.
But I will keep on having fun on Hive, and for now it is still a time to increase my bag.
all the best on the trading my friend, and Happy Power UP Day
!PIZZA
Thanks, and yes agree bear is "time to increase my bag" 💪
Tagging you all for your thoughts @zekepickleman @ph1102 @mypathtofire @nenio @tobetada @iyanpol12 @libertycrypto27 @takhar — this post isn’t a classic PUD, but a full cycle reflection and roadmap. Curious how the structure reads from your perspective, and whether the rhythm I’ve documented makes sense to you as well.
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