My Predictions for Super Bowl 59

Hi Everyone,

It is time for the NFL playoffs again. As usual, I am going to make my predictions for every playoff game. Last year, I did well. I successfully predicted three out of four conference finalists correctly. The Lions made it instead of the Cowboys. I even predicted the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl in my initial prediction. Unfortunately, I changed my prediction later on when I updated my predictions as the results came in.

This year, I will use the same format as last year. I will conduct a brief analysis of the teams. I will share some of my thoughts, and then I will predict all thirteen games. I expect to make mistakes. Therefore, like last year, I will continue the post with updated predictions based on the new games.

Before I begin, here are the links to all my previous Super Bowl prediction posts.

How the Playoffs Work (covered in detail in previous year's Super Bowl post)

In short, it is a knockout competition where the number one seeds from each conference have a bye in the first round. Hence, why there are fourteen teams instead of sixteen. Losing teams are eliminated each week until there is only one team left from each conference. These two teams meet in the Super Bowl.

Teams in This Year’s Playoffs

The teams in the playoffs for the AFC are as follows based on seeding:

Kansas City Chiefs
Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens
Houston Texans
L.A. Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos

The teams in the playoffs for the NFC are as follows based on seeding:

Detroit Lions
Philadelphia Eagles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
L.A. Rams
Minnesota Vikings
Washington Commanders
Green Bay Packers

The first round games are as follows:

AFC

Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans vs. L.A. Chargers

NFC

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Commanders
L.A. Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings

Analysis of Teams

Before I make my predictions, I want to provide a brief analysis of all fourteen teams based on the statistics from the regular season. Below are the regular season records, points for and against, and recent form (last 5 games) for all the playoff teams.

Source: NFL

The strong regular season records of several teams really stand out this season. The Lions and Chiefs both have win-loss records of 15-2. The Vikings and Commanders both have win-loss records of 14-3. The Minnesota Vikings have won the most regular season games for a team that did not win their division. They broke the Tennessee Titans thirteen wins in 1999. The strength of the NFC stood out more than the AFC. All three wild card teams (teams that did not win their division) won at least eleven games.

The NFC teams also have a large points differential. This indicates that these teams are winning by reasonably large margins. The only exception being the Rams, who scored fewer points than they scored. Four of the AFC teams had point differentials above a hundred. Interestingly, the Chiefs only had a point differential of 59. This reflects on the number of close games they have had in the regular season.

The NFC teams have shown very good recent form. The Commanders have won their previous five games. Five other teams have won four of their previous five games. The Packers are the odd one out with just two wins from the previous five games. In the AFC, only the Chiefs and Ravens are in strong form, both winning four of the previous five games. The only game the Chiefs lost was because they were resting players for the playoffs.

Possibly the most relevant information from the above statistics is the seeding. The number one seed has a huge advantage. They are the only seed to obtain a bye week, and they are guaranteed to play all playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl at home. Over the past two seasons, three out of four number one seeds have made it to the Super Bowl. There is a good chance at least one of the number one seeds will make the Super Bowl.

The win-loss records only reveal part of the picture. Below are some of the other important statistics that indicate the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team. These are yards per play, percentage of plays that result in turnovers, penalties, and strength of schedule.

Source: ESPN, Power Rankings Guru for strength of schedule, and NFL Penalties
Note: %TO is the percentage of plays resulting in turnovers, play is yards per play, and SOS is the strength of schedule.

The Ravens stand out with the most efficient offence. They had the most yards per pass and per run play of any of the fourteen playoff teams. They also had one of lowest percentage of plays resulting in turnovers. The Lions were close in terms of yards per pass play but averaged a yard less per rushing play. The Lions and Buccaneers were tied for the second most yards per play. However, a high percentage of Buccaneers plays resulted in turnovers. The Bills and Chargers were least likely to turn over the ball, with less than 1% of their plays leading to turnovers.

Based on yards per play, the Chiefs and Broncos had the least efficient offences. They averaged 1.7 yards less per play than the Ravens. In the NFC, the Rams had the least efficient offence during the season. They were the only NFC playoff team to average less than 6 yards per play. However, the Rams had relatively fewer turnovers per play than other NFC teams.

In the NFC, the Eagles stood out for having the most efficient defence in terms of yards per play. They are the most efficient in terms of defending the pass, with an average of just 6 yards per play, which is a yard per play better than any other NFC playoff team. The Eagles were less efficient against the run. The Packers allowed the lowest yards per run attempt of the NFC playoff teams. The Rams and Lions were least efficient defensively. The Vikings and Packers were the most efficient at forcing turnovers. Both teams forced turnovers on over 3% of the opponent’s plays.

In the AFC, the Broncos had the most efficient defence. However, this was only by a small margin. The Chiefs, Ravens, Texans, and Chargers were only 0.2 yards per play behind them. The Chargers with the more efficient pass defence and the Ravens with the more efficient run defence. The Bills were the least efficient defensively, but only by a small margin. The Steelers and Bills were the most efficient at forcing turnovers. Both teams forced turnovers on over 3% of the opponent’s plays.

The Eagles, in terms of the difference between offence and defence efficiency, performed the best of the NFC playoff teams in yards per play and percentage of plays leading to turnovers. This was only marginally better than the Packers in both categories. The Buccaneers difference in yards per play was the same as the Packers, but their difference in turnovers was negative.

In the AFC, the Bills were very efficient in not turning the ball over and very efficient in forcing turnovers. No other team came close to the Bills in this category. The Ravens performed the best in terms of the difference between yards per play on offence and defence. However, this difference might have been needed considering their defence struggled to force turnovers.

The Ravens were the most heavily penalised team in the playoffs. They were penalised more than 400 yards than the Chargers, the least penalised team. The Vikings and the Steelers were the most helped by penalties.

The Rams had the hardest regular season schedule of all playoff teams; it ranked sixth. The Lions, ranked seventh, and the Packers, ranked eighth, closely followed the Rams. The Commanders and the Eagles had the easiest schedules. In the AFC, the Ravens had the hardest schedule; it ranked ninth. The Bills and Chargers had the easiest schedules.

Based on the above statistics, the Ravens appear to be the strongest team in the AFC. Penalties and lack of defensive turnovers appear to have hindered them and are possibly why their win-loss record is not better. This likely gives them a tough road to the Super Bowl. They might need to play at the Bills or Chiefs. The Lions appear to be the strongest team in the NFC. They have the best regular season record. They also have the best offence in terms of points and efficiency per play. This is despite playing one of the toughest schedules in the league.

Super Bowl Odds

Super Bowl odds are a useful indicator of the teams that people believe are most likely to win the Super Bowl. They are willing to support their decisions by risking money. Below are the Super Bowl odds for all 14 teams.

Source: Odds Checker accessed 10/01/2025

The Lions are slight favourites over the Chiefs. The Ravens, Bills, and Eagles are not far behind. It makes sense people are betting on the Lions and Chiefs. They have the number one seed in their conference. The gap in odds to the third, fourth, and fifth teams is narrower than the previous season. The Lions defence has been weakened by injury, and the Chiefs have not won many games convincingly this season. It is possible these odds will change if the Ravens, Bills, or Eagles progress to the next round of the playoffs. Below are the most likely Super Bowl matchups based on odds.

Most Likely	Matchup	Odds
1	Chiefs vs. Lions	+480
3	Bills vs. Lions	+700
5	Ravens vs. Lions	+750
2	Chiefs vs. Eagles	+950
4	Chiefs vs. Vikings	+1000
6	Bills vs. Eagles	+1300
8	Ravens vs. Eagles	+1400
7	Bills vs. Vikings	+1900

Source: Covers citing FanDuel January 8, 2025

The top five matchups include either the Chiefs or Lions, with the Lions in all of the top three.

More Than Just Being Good

Super Bowl winners are always going to be good teams, but they are not necessarily going to be the best teams. There are other factors at play. Some of these include:

The entertainment value the teams offer
The matchups and the storylines
Unpredictability and potential for surprises
Most profitable for gambling
Politics and messaging

Offences are normally more interesting than defences. High-scoring games are often preferred over low-scoring games. However, the most preferred are close games, which are determined in the final quarter or even minutes of the game. Games are also more entertaining based on the star power of the players. Almost every Super Bowl over the past few decades has featured a star quarterback.

Big games often have interesting storylines. In 2024, it was the Super Bowl 54 rematch and the Taylor Swift theme. In 2023, it was the Kelce brothers. In 2022, it was the L.A. Rams and the Hollywood Super Bowl. In 2021, it was the old G.O.A.T., Tom Brady, against the future G.O.A.T., Patrick Mahomes. This year, there is likely to be a storyline. It is also possible that it will be building towards something for next season.

Unpredictability is good. The NFL wants to keep the fans guessing. This is good for entertainment and gambling. Considering so many teams have such similar records, it appears any team has a chance of winning.

Gambling is a huge part of the NFL. I would expect results to go in a way that favours the house. This might not necessarily be about just results, but it could be about individual player performances and who scores first or the most points.

The NFL, like most sports, is political. We have seen this with Black Lives Matter as well as the wars in the early 2000s. It is quite possible there will be political themes relating to domestic politics or even foreign policy. The election of Donald Trump could be a factor. In 2017, Donald Trump’s favourite team, the New England Patriots, beat the Atlanta Falcons in the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history.

My Predictions for the Wild Card Round

Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos just sneaked into the playoffs. They did so by beating a reserve Chiefs team. If they had played the Chiefs a few games earlier, they probably would have lost and not made the playoffs. The Bills have had a very strong season, and their quarterback, Josh Allen, is one of the favourites to win season MVP.

The Bills and Broncos will be playing each other for the first time this season. The Bills have homefield advantage. The Bills have the better offence, and the Broncos may just about have the better defence. However, the Bills defence is very good at forcing turnovers. The Broncos are reasonably turnover prone. A Bills win would likely lead to an interesting Divisional Round match with the Ravens. Whereas a Broncos win would lead to a far less interesting rematch with the Chiefs. I predict the Bills will win.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Ravens and Steelers have already played each other twice this season. They won one game each. The first game, in Pittsburgh, was close. The second game in Baltimore was a comfortable win for the Ravens. This game will be played in Baltimore. The Ravens have won four games in a row by convincing margins. The Steelers have lost four in a row. The Ravens are in much better form and overall better in most areas. The Steelers best chance and possibly only chance to win is if they force several turnovers. They are strong in that aspect. The Ravens should win convincingly. This would set up a great matchup with the Bills.

Houston Texans vs. L.A. Chargers

The Texans and Chargers will be playing each other for the first time this season. Statistically, these teams are quite close. In terms of yards, efficiency on either side of the ball is similar. Both teams have similar win-loss records, with the Chargers winning one extra game. Strength of schedule is almost the same. Chargers are considerably less turnover prone than the Texans. The Texans will have the advantage of homefield, but the Chargers have been in much better form over the past three games.

If my previous two predictions are correct, the winner of this game will play the Chiefs. The Chiefs have beaten both teams in the regular season and have lost to neither. The Chargers have been more competitive with the Chiefs than the Texans and more likely to upset the Chiefs. The Chargers are from L.A., California. The NFL wants to build larger fanbases for the west coast teams. A deeper playoff run for a west coast team would help achieve that. Next year’s Super Bowl will be played in San Francisco's home stadium. The Chargers could be a top contender in a year’s time and could temporarily replace the Chiefs in the second half of this decade.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers

The Eagles and Packers have played each other once this season; that was back in Week One. The Eagles won by a narrow margin. Statistically, the Eagles look like the better team. They have won more games, scored more points, conceded fewer points, have had fewer turnovers, and are currently in better form. The Packers have been better at forcing turnovers and have a better run defence. The Eagles offensive strength is their ground game.

The Eagles have homefield advantage. They are considered strong favourites to win. I predict this game might be the first upset of the playoffs. The Packers have the more exciting offence, and their defence could be capable of slowing down the Eagles strong ground game. The Packers had the stronger schedule, which would have contributed to worse statistics than the Eagles. If the Packers win, they face the Lions. These two teams had a very exciting game in December where the Lions won at home 34-31. If the Eagles win, they would face the highest-seeded winner of the other games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Commanders

This is another Week One rematch. The Buccaneers beat the Commanders comfortably 37-20. The Buccaneers had a very strong start to the season. They beat the Lions in Week Two and the Eagles in Week Three. They had a very bad mid-season, losing four games in a row before bouncing back, winning six of their last seven, but they only faced one playoff team during this run. The Commanders also stumbled mid-season, losing three in a row. After that, they won the remaining five games. They also only beat one playoff team during that run, but it was the Eagles.

Both teams had weak schedules. The Buccaneers with the twenty-third easiest and the Commanders with the easiest. The Buccaneers have been efficient in gaining yards but have been prone to turnovers, the Commanders less so. The Commanders have struggled against the run. Whereas, the Buccaneers have a strong ground game. The Buccaneers have homefield advantage. They are also the more experienced playoff team. Therefore, the Buccaneers are the slight favourites.

For this game, I am predicting an upset win for the Commanders. I think they will keep their winning streak alive. The Buccaneers have been in good form, but most of the teams they have beaten recently have been very weak. Five of those six wins came against teams that have won five or fewer games.

L.A. Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Rams and Vikings have played each other once this season. The Rams and Lions are the only two teams to beat the Vikings this season. Since Matthew Stafford became quarterback for the Rams, they seem to match up well against the Vikings. They have won both games against them since 2021. Based on the season’s statistics, the Vikings appear to be the far superior team. However, the Rams have been greatly hindered by injuries. They have also played a much stronger schedule than the Vikings. The Rams are also in better form than the Vikings, who just lost convincingly to the Lions. The Rams won two critical division games as well as another against the Bills. The Rams also have homefield advantage in this game. I predict the Rams will win. This will set the Rams up with a game against the Buccaneers or the Commanders. It will also be good for the NFL to get a California team into the next round.

My Predictions for the Divisional Round

Assuming all my predictions are correct (highly unlikely), the matches for the Divisional Round should be as follows:

AFC

Chiefs vs. Chargers
Bills vs. Ravens

NFC

Lions vs. Packers
Rams vs. Commanders

Chiefs vs. Chargers

The Chiefs and Chargers have already played each other twice this season. The Chiefs won both games, but by narrow margins. These two teams are very evenly matched. The Chargers could easily win. It would be great for the NFL to have a California team in the AFC Championship game. However, the Chiefs are the bigger pull. The NFL will want to keep the possibility of them winning a third consecutive Super Bowl alive. I predict the Chiefs will win by a narrow margin. I think next season will be different.

Bills vs. Ravens

This is the game everyone wants to see. They are possibly the two most exciting teams in the AFC. They both have quarterback MVP candidates. They both have been consistently strong over the past few seasons, but neither has made it to a Super Bowl during that time. The two teams have played each other once this season. The Ravens won convincingly. However, that game was played in Baltimore. This time it will be played in Buffalo.

Statistically, the Ravens look better than the Bills in terms of yards, but the Bills have been considerably better at forcing turnovers. The Ravens have also been far more heavily penalised than the Bills. The Ravens appear to be the better team but make more mistakes that might be costing them. Those mistakes could be the difference in this game. However, I do not think that will be the case. I think the Ravens will win. The game will play out slightly differently depending on the weather.

Lions vs. Packers

This would be the third time the Lions and Packers have played this season. The Lions won both previous games. The second game in Detroit was very close. The Lions have the better offence and the Packers the better defence. This is likely to be a close game. If the Lions have their way, it will be high-scoring. Neither team has to worry about the weather because Ford Field is a dome (indoor stadium). I predict the Lions will win. Homefield advantage plus the week off gives the Lions too much of an advantage.

Rams vs. Commanders

This would be the first time these two teams have played this season. This would be the second away game for the Commanders against a team with an inferior win-loss record. This would be the second home game for the Rams against a team with a superior win-loss record. Travelling takes its toll on a team. This would be the third away game in a row for the Commanders. The Rams would be considerably more rested. They rested players in the final game of the season against the Seahawks, and the home games eliminate travel fatigue. The Commanders would need to travel the length of the country to L.A.

If the Chargers are eliminated, there will be a greater need for the Rams to progress to the NFC Conference Championship. I predict the Rams will win and go on to face the Lions. The Rams-Lions rematch would be popular as the two teams swapped quarterbacks several years ago, and the Lions eliminated the Rams in last year’s playoffs.

My Predictions for the Conference Championship

Assuming all my predictions are correct (would be a miracle), the matches for the Conference Championship should be as follows:

AFC

Chiefs vs. Ravens

NFC

Lions vs. Rams

Chiefs vs. Ravens

If this game happens, it will be a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game. This time it will be played in Kansas City. The Chiefs and Ravens played in the season opener in Kansas. The Chiefs won 27-20. It would be ironic that the first game between AFC teams ended up also being the last game between AFC teams.

No NFL team has won three Super Bowls in a row. They all fell just short of the big game. Several of them being eliminated in the Championship game (e.g., Steelers, 49ers, and Cowboys). I do not believe the Chiefs will win a third Super Bowl in a row. I believe the Ravens will stop them. The Ravens will do to the Chiefs what the Chiefs did to them the previous season. It would also be the Super Bowl logo conspiracy, but in reverse.

Lions vs. Rams

The Lions would face the Rams in yet another Week One rematch. The Rams would return to Ford Field to face the Lions again after losing the first time in overtime. These two teams have had such good close games, but the Lions just seem to edge it in the end. This one would also likely be very close. The Rams might be due to beat the Lions this time. Despite the Lions success over the Rams. It is the Rams who have won a Super Bowl since the teams swapped quarterbacks. Therefore, it might be time for the Lions to make their first Super Bowl appearance. I predict in a high-scoring game, the Lions will be able to do enough to beat the Rams and reach their first-ever Super Bowl.

My Super Bowl Prediction (Ravens vs. Lions)

If these two teams meet in the Super Bowl, it would be their first encounter of the season. The Lions have not beaten the Ravens since 2005. That was the only victory the Lions have over the Ravens. The Ravens have beaten the Lions in five consecutive games.

Media focus would be on the Lions first Super Bowl appearance and possibly the Ravens historical record over them. It is also possible Lamar Jackson will be discussed if he wins season MVP. Winning both season MVP and Super Bowl MVP is rare.

Both the Ravens and Lions have great offences, but the Ravens are currently better defensively. They have become stronger as the season has progressed. The Lions defence has been weakened by injury. I predict the Ravens will win the Super Bowl.

The last time the Super Bowl was played in New Orleans, the Ravens beat the 49ers. If the Ravens make it to this Super Bowl, they would have appeared in the Super Bowl every twelve years since 2001 and have won every time. I predict Lamar Jackson will do the double and win the Super Bowl MVP award.

I have made 13 predictions. I expect to get several wrong. Below are the updated predictions for each round.

Alternative Division Round Predictions (if I am wrong)

To be updated after the Wild Card round.

Super Early and Super Crazy Prediction for Next Season

Super Bowl 60 will be held in Santa Clara at Levi’s Stadium, the home stadium for the 49ers. No NFL team had hosted the Super Bowl until Super Bowl 55 in Tampa Bay. In this Super Bowl, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Kansas City Chiefs. Just a year later, the L.A. Rams won the Super Bowl in their home stadium. I predict the San Francisco 49ers will make the Super Bowl. I predict they will play another California team; that team will be the Chargers. Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh will face his former team in the stadium that was built during his tenure with them. It would be a heck of a grudge match considering he left on such bad terms with the team even though he was very successful. If this Super Bowl happens, I predict the Chargers will win.

My New Book, Sapien Loop

I have published an ebook on Amazon; it is titled ‘Sapien Loop: End of an Era’. The book is fiction. I do not normally write fiction. However, I felt it was appropriate considering what is happening in the world today. Freedom is the most important thing we have, but we are gradually losing it. I have covered this in many of my posts.

In the story, most citizens do not understand the concept of freedom because they have never really experienced it. In essence, the story is about an alien world that might represent our not-so-distant future. There are many other elements to the story that are an abstract and exaggerated version of our reality. I believe this book to be an important read, and I believe it has the potential to change the way you think.

Brief Summary of Sapien Loop

This story is based on the fictional planet Sapia and its sole country, Sapey. Sapey is portrayed as a form of utopia for all its citizens. No poverty. No war. Almost no crime. Opportunities for all.

This was enough for most citizens, but not all. In one of the small regions, some of the citizens had become discontent. They felt something important was missing in their lives. Their discontent did not go unnoticed. Some of the Sapey elite wanted to weaponise this discontent to gain more power. This created more chaos than they anticipated. This led to further widespread social unrest.

On top of the chaos, ambition and greed provoked another enemy. This enemy was on a mission to settle both new and old scores.

If you want to buy a copy of the book, below are links to the relevant Amazon websites for each country it is available in. The book is priced at approximately US$5.08.

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