Its far more complex then that
This simply isn't true. Exchanges are centralized and can decide on their own who to follow. It's likely in a clean split scenario they would allow both if both are reputable.
Also youre dismissing the fact of what Steemit.inc said, what was agreed upon etc.
You're right, but it's not relevant to my points, which I wanted to focus on. Plenty of squabbling about who said what, so I didn't want to focus on that in this post. And as you mention, our values differ in the first place.
It depends who forks and how and what Justin would have in place at that time. The choices made by exchanges would effected by multiple factors.
I think Pfunk did a good breakdown on what was said and when.
Actually, it also depends on exchange partnerships. They may not even want to run two exchange nodes.... So there's that too