As slim as their chances may be — and make no mistake about it, they're about as slim as can be without being zero — the Dallas Cowboys are still alive in the playoff hunt heading into the final three weeks of the regular season.
Their shot to win the NFC East for a second straight season and the third time in four years went out the window weeks ago, as the Philadelphia Eagles are in clear control in that regard at 12-2. And while the Cowboys improved to 6-8 this past Sunday with a win over the Carolina Panthers, they're four games behind the Green Bay Packers, who currently hold the No. 6 seed in the NFC at 10-2.
As such, the only slot open to America's Team at this point is the third and final NFC wild-card berth, which is currently held by the Washington Commanders, who enter Week 16 at 9-5. But it's not as if the Commanders are the only team the Cowboys have to concern themselves with, as several others are involved in this race.
And that includes current division leaders in the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6), who Dallas hosts this Sunday night, and the NFC West-leading Los Angeles Rams (8-6).
As neither has won its division, both have to be included in the wild-card hunt at this point, as do all the other currently ahead of the Cowboys, a group that consists of the Seattle Seahawks (No. 8, 8-6), Atlanta Falcons (No. 9, 7-7), Arizona Cardinals (No. 10, 7-7), and San Francisco 49ers (No. 11, 6-8).
Just as significantly, Washington, which has remaining dates with the Eagles and Falcons before the regular-season finale with Dallas, has to lose every game the rest of the way to fall to 9-8. If they win any of these three, the Cowboys are out.
For argument's sake, let's say both of these things happen.
In addition, the Cowboys, who would've already beaten the Bucs, would need Tampa Bay also to lose one of its last two and have Atlanta slide in and win the South.
Let's dive into this madness, shall we?
How the Cowboys can still make the NFL Playoffs
First and foremost, the Cowboys have to win out to get to 9-8. That's an absolute must, as any loss means immediate elimination. And that's no easy feat given that they face the Bucs this Sunday, the Eagles in Week 17, and the Commanders in Week 18.
Dallas also needs to have either the Rams or Seahawks lose two games, which gets tricky because they play one another in Week 18. Staying in the West, the Cardinals and 49ers must also lose a game each.
The Niners, who have the same 6-8 record as Dallas at this point, come into play because the Cowboys would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker, so getting them out of the mix with nine losses just makes things easier.
To recap, here's what needs to happen:
- Cowboys win their final three games
- Commanders lose their final three games
- Buccaneers lose to the Cowboys and also one of their last two
- Seahawks OR Rams lose two games
- Cardinals lose a game
- 49ers lose a game
With how the tiebreakers would play out, if the Cowboys, Commanders, Buccaneers, Rams/Seahawks, and Cardinals all finish 9-8, Dallas takes the No. 7 seed.
There are tweaks that could be made to get the same result, but this is the most straightforward path for the Cowboys at this point. Easy enough, don't you think?
Yeah, have fun with it. Never know what might happen. Good luck.