We believe that a combination of price analysis and fundamental analysis is the most appropriate way to come up with a legitimate bitcoin forecast.
Fundamentally, the bitcoin usage data look great: usage of bitcoins keeps on increasing, and that is exactly what it fundamentally is all about. Because of the fact that bitcoin is a form of money, the widening acceptance of bitcoin is the most fundamental data point to consider.
Another great option would be to use prediction markets such as the one that KoCurrency offers. They offer a bitcoin price prediction channel where predictions are output based on the inputs of the smartest members of the crowd. Their predictions model is very interesting (they use a proof based model which aims to solve the “biased view” problem mentioned above), However, they are very early stage so they need more data pouring into their platform before they can offer reliable predictions. I encourage you to sign up for their platform, so maybe we could all use this as a reliable predictions tool in the future.
Fortune.com explained how demand for safe haven assets have fallen since the elections “on a stronger dollar, signs of future interest rate hikes, and potentially business-friendly policies that may arise from the Trump administration. Those potential regulatory changes would raise the chances of higher-yielding stocks.” That also is not useful as input for a bitcoin price forecast.
There is obviously no correlation between the bitcoin price and the dollar or any other regular asset. Large investors simply don’t pull money out of currencies, stocks or gold in order to buy bitcoins.
We update our Bitcoin price forecast and use our earlier max price target of $10000 as a mega support level. Given recent strength in Bitcoin we would not be surprised to see its recent highs at $7800 will get tested later this year