There is a premise in your analysis that all of a sudden a majority of the voting stake is going to start going to a subset of popular authors. I'm not saying it won't happen, but it is a prediction in user behavior that is impossible to know. It could very well go the other way too.
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Tim. I have to work 2 weeks to make $2800. As a whale I can in 1 click make that in the new scheme. This is going to take exactly 0.03 seconds to explode posts that were already trending at 3k
I don't think that is accurate. Whale votes are likely going to add less to rewards under the new formula (even with 4x) than they are today.