I think I'm missing something, or there is confusion because of how I phrased it with a negative and a positive... I agree and am certain smaller conspiracies are more stable too, which is what my initial statement indicates. Chance of success decreases by half when you double the population. But I seem to recall an old formula that precisely defines the rule. But since I can't recall the name, I can't find it. I learned it when listening to a lecture about "Applewhite Theorem," (about that cult in California a decade or so ago.)

Regarding your adding 100 "faithful" people, that's just the thing, we can't ever really say that, and people change. So for every doubling in the following, the chances of a leak double too. Isn't that so regardless of that specific guy who might benefit? (And now there may be 2 of them too.)

I'm not being argumentative, I just think the likelihood of a (successful) FE conspiracy to be extremely, extremely low. Maybe I got the exact formula wrong, but we agree on the principle I think. So aside from perhaps partially misremembering the it, I don't understand where I have missed thinking critically. (But am open to an education^^)