Give it a few years and facebook will be gone.

Look. The only reason facebook is a going concern is that it gives its service away for free. Any business can get an immense following by doing that. Sure, they are making good money with ads right now, but the dirty little secret is that we all try like hell to avoid them. That, and a large number of clicks may be either accidents or click farm fake numbers.

I know, for example, that every day I accidentally click on several ads when reading sites on my phone. Now, I quickly close the window and don't even look at whatever it is, but as far as the advertiser is concerned, that's success. A click they paid for with an ambush ad.

Estimates are that up to 20% of facebook profiles are fake. Society is still trying to wrap its head around the concept that a photoshop boob job doesn't actually make your boobs bigger in real life, and for some folks that seemingly obvious logic has taken longer than for others. For example, the US state department paid $630,000 to take its likes from 10,000 to 2.5 million. An unfortunate side effect of these purchased likes was that the US state department was (WTF?) most popular in Cairo, Egypt. Yup -- money well spent.

People lose track of what they are trying to accomplish on social media, and presume that likes and clicks have anything to do with reality, which they don't. They are a metric and goal unto themselves. But businesses are catching on -- a recent poll indicated that 62% of small business owners in the US don't think facebook ads work.

This is perhaps not surprising. On facebook, you are trying to accomplish something specific, and ads are annoying and get in the way. Like a guy with a big hat sitting in front of you at a ball game. It's obnoxious because it gets in between you and what you are trying to see.

When you use google, on the other hand, you are looking for something that you haven't found yet, and because you are in search mode, targeted ads can be remarkably effective.

Final coffin nail. Anyone have any contact with the 12-16 year old crowd? News flash -- Facebook is stale. None of them are on it. They have moved on to snapchat, instagram, and twitter.

Zuckerberg made his money by selling stock that doesn't represent anything to a huge number of people. He did not make his money by actually running a productive business. He is now on to the next scam, globetrotting all over, trying hard to remind everyone that he is a messiah in time to run in the next presidential election.

Businesses can afford to waste money during an upswing. They will trim non-productive advertising during the coming downswing.

Facebook is the next Myspace. It just doesn't know it yet.