Interesting observations, to be sure.

I still think the future of Steem looks pretty positive, as well. But I also think we are in a (at least) medium-term "cycling pattern," which is hard to explain, but it accounts for the declining price... and it is directly tied to the Steemit front end.

Let's face it, the vast majority of those who hold Steem are Steemit users who came here in hopes of finding a "blogging platform that pays." And whereas that is certainly true, to some degree, even Ned has said (in not so many words) that Steemit is basically a "throwaway" in the future of the Steem blockchain... it's all about dApps and SMTs and so forth.

But that doesn't negate the fact that the vast majority of Steem wallet holders — who often aren't even much aware that Steem does NOT equal Steemit — are going to be living in a state of disappointment and possibly disgust till they decide to power down and cash out.

We can paint this picture whatever way we WANT, but they number in the tens of thousandswhile even the most successful dApps so far have a few thousand dedicated users.

All I'm saying is that right now the underlying financial mathematics of that negative sentiment is ahead of future dreamsand it would not surprise me if we see 20-cent Steem before all the "disappointed ones" have been purged from the system.

Personally, I think is was a mistake for Steemit Inc to not take the :first mover advantage" of the Steemit front-end and turn it into the flagship model (why reinvent the wheel when you already HAVE a wheel?) for what you can do with an SMT, but hopefully they know what they are doing.