Hi @knircky, on my phone so hope you're okay with numbers derived from a chart combined with a little fundamental analysis. I don't believe in pure technical analysis.
ETH market cap is where it was at a year ago, it stayed at this level until mid Nov. 2017 when cryptocurrencies and ERC20 tokens started being pumped in the news. Many popular coins are around their one year support levels, this is critical to understand. ETH also keeps printing more ETH and they can't agree on when to limit this, that implies downward pressure on the price even as the market cap is stable. Another issue is the most successful ERC20 coins are launching their own main nets like VeChain and competitors like XLM, EOS and NEO are picking up their game.
I expect ETH to trend downwards to $250 over the next month unless big news comes limiting the creation of more ETH. The demand (volume) has been increasing but it's limited because Plasma isn't working yet and the network gets clogged.
Unless there is news or an improvement, ETH will bounce between 250 and 325. If it breaks 250, there is support at 200 and 400 is the upside.
This is just guesswork so please don't trade or invest based on my opinion.