I think this reasoning is a bit too simple. In the beginning ICO price was always above market price, most likely due to the hype.

The big dip you talked about from 1.29 to 0.90 happened due to the China ICO treath. Most ICO/China related coins are bearish since that time

For me you should look at the project itself, do you think it has potential at this price just buy it. There are no guarantees in investing. Every investment is priced at a level where its balanced to the information that is available...

If you are totally sure of this just go all in short...

If I would be sure of something I know I would be all in...