It wont be quick but i think EOS does have the potential to become #1 in its market. I bought a bunch when it was under $1, i couldnt believe it was so low. I guess the FUD about a scam had something to do with it but still, if they can do 80% of what they promise this will be big.
I agree with both your points. first mover is a MASSIVE advantage especially with smart platforms that are already having big projects built on ethereum. With that said, its still early in the game and if EOS can produce i think you will see them gaining ground on ETH once they are up and running. ETH programming can become a hurdle that gives EOS the edge they need to pass them