I hope you have found this post useful.
I certainly found the picture just above that snippet useful! :-)
But to be serious, that report you excerpted touches on a lot of issues. I'm a wee bit skeptical of such analyses, even ones that are Big-Data thorough, because the grist for all of them are facts that by definition describe some part of the past. That's why forecasting is hazardous: even the most sophisticated relies to a large degree on extrapolation. Extrapolation is the standard way to be blindsided ;)
To be fair to futurists, they're caught in a bind. The only choices in the field are some form of extrapolation, imaginative forecasting, or good ol' guesswork. :)
I agree - I suppose some information is better than none but their are always reasons to be wary!
Yeah, there is: that's what makes for all those surprises :)
If you have the time and inclination, try gazing through this period piece: The People's Almanac Presents The Book of Predictions It's one of those books that you can buy for less than a buck + shipping at Amazon.
I did so myself, and had my eyes opened by the confluence of genuine experts making predictions that in retrospect were wildly wrong. Case in point: with one exception none of those experts forecast the fall of the Soviet Union. The only one to do so was a Catholic priest! (He had been stationed in Eastern Europe). And even he forecast that the U.S.S.R would turn into a social democracy like 1970s-era Sweden.
It was sobering.
Thanks will add it to my list of reads:)
Glad to! Might as well save it for your free time...
....if you have any ;)
Lol yes:)