)Earthquake Activity:
In the last three days we have seen ABOVE AVERAGE seismic activity across the world, with a total of 13 earthquakes at or above M5.0, including M6.0 and M6.7 quakes.
A total of 8 DEEP (200+ km) earthquakes have been recorded worldwide over the last three days, which is ABOVE AVERAGE.
Largest earthquake to strike the world since the previous update: M6.7 Largest earthquake to strike in the U.S. (including U.S. territories): M5.5 [M4.9]
Summary: The Kuril Islands region, north of Japan, was a primary target this week. Multiple M6.0+ quakes struck the region. We saw another large quake strike the region at M6.7 and this time it was DEEP. We now must watch the Aleutian Islands of Alaska as the primary target for the potential of a very large quake in the M7.0-7.6 range in the next 10 days. The upper end of this magnitude range is potential tsunami territory.
Watch for a Special Report published later this week on earthquake related events in Israel, including never-seen-before phenomenon in the Dead Sea region.
WATCHES & WARNINGS: (imminent threats for large earthquakes or tsunamis)
A WARNING is now issued for Aleutian Islands of Alaska as the primary target region for a potential large quake in the M6.6-7.6 range to strike in the next 7-10 days. The upper end of the magnitude range is potential tsunami territory which could affect both Hawaii and the west coast of the U.S., including coastal regions of Washington, Oregon, and California. A M5.7 quake has already struck near the western end of the Aleutians on the coast of Kamchatka tonight, and a M5.5 [M4.9] quake has struck in northwestern Alaska, indicating that the seismic force is beginning to move.
In addition to Alaska, Japan and the southern Kuril Islands are secondary targets, and will likely see an increase in earthquakes with a possible large quake. If we don’t see a large quake occur in the forecast range in the named target areas, then we will watch for multiple large quakes in the M6.2-7.6 range striking in multiple nearby regions. Southern Japan has been quiet, with no quakes or volcanic eruptions occurring for many days, which is suspect, and makes it a target to watch, as well as northern Japan. China could also be a target for the M6.0-7.0+ quake, but with the unreliability of reports from USGS, we may never know.
A WATCH is now issued for the New Zealand region. It has been several weeks since New Zealand and the Kermadec Islands saw any notable earthquakes. This is not the normal pattern, and it appears that since the record DEEP M8.2 quake that struck many weeks ago near Fiji, that the pattern has been interrupted. This may be either a temporary or permanent change. Time will tell. If and when the seismic flow returns to the previous pattern, then the New Zealand region would likely be struck with a large quake in the M6.4-7.4 range.
The WARNINGS for the South Pacific and West Pacific regions are now lowered to a WATCH. Multiple large M6.0-7.0 earthquakes have struck the warned areas, exactly as was forecasted.
A long-term continuous WATCH is still in place for Hawaii, for a potentially large seismic event in the M6.4-7.2 range - an explosive eruption at Kilauea volcano. Pyroclastic flows may occur, with the potential of reaching up to 5-6 miles from the crater.
A long-term continuous WATCH remains in effect for the Pacific Northwest, along and west of Highway 5, including the cities of Vancouver, Victoria, Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Salem, Eugene, Grants Pass, Medford, as far south as Redding, CA, especially along the coast. This is an on-going slow-slip event, and when it eventually quiets down, we will watch for a potential catastrophic quake in the M8.4-9.2 range to occur, most likely off-coast. A devastating tsunami should be expected at these magnitudes.
Swarms: (swarms and highest magnitudes occurring in the past three days)
Major swarms continue in southern Mexico, eastern Caribbean, and New Zealand. The swarm in Hawaii has quieted down to low levels. The swarm in northern Alaska is gradually fading, but still continues. Swarms continue in California, including at The Geysers, Mammoth Lakes in east central California, and Anza Gap (southern). Northern Alaska continues to swarm, following the large quakes that struck near the coast. There have been 15 quakes, reaching a high of M3.7. The M5.5 [M4.9] quake that struck in northwestern Alaska tonight, did NOT strike in the swarm area near Prudhoe Bay.
Hawaii’s swarm continues, and is now increasing as Kilauea volcano re-charges. There have been 28 quakes. Magnitudes have reached a high of M4.5.
The swarm in Italy continues, with 15 quakes occurring. The highest magnitude has been M3.0.
The swarm continues in the eastern Caribbean. The highest magnitude has reached M3.1. Mt. Saint Helens and Mt. Rainier in Washington remain mildly active. A total of 4 quakes have struck the region.
Over the past three days, 42 quakes have struck in or off the coast of southern Mexico, reaching a high of M4.5.
There have been 104 quakes in and around New Zealand in the past 48 hours. The highest magnitude the past three days has been M3.5.
Yellowstone Status:
The Yellowstone super volcano region remains active. In the past three days, earthquake magnitudes have reached M2.7. Magnitudes have remained low for several months.
Pacific Northwest & San Andreas Slow-Slip Events:
The slow-slip event in the Pacific Northwest has continued for over two years. This is the longest time frame we have seen for a slow-slip event in the U.S. since such data was recorded. Tremors continue to occur sporadically across the entire region, with one small cluster occurring west of Redding, California in the past 48 hours.
When the tremors stop for 2-3 days, then the WARNING will be issued for a potential M8.4-9.2 mega-quake to strike, most likely off-coast. Large quakes that occur following a slow-slip event usually happen within a few days to two weeks or so after the slow-slip has ceased. This region is many years overdue for a large earthquake to strike.
A quake occurring in this magnitude range will trigger a catastrophic tsunami that will affect the entire west coast of the U.S. within minutes, as well as other countries around the Pacific.
A major seismic event in Japan or Alaska could potentially trigger this mega-quake. There could be 2-3 days of warning before the mega-quake strikes to get out of harm’s way, but you can’t count on having that much time.
A slow-slip event is also occurring in southern California, on the Anza Gap, along the southern San Andreas fault, down through Salton Sea. This slow-slip event has been acknowledged by seismologists to have been occurring for the past year, but it actually began about two years ago by my observation. When tremors stop for 2-3 days in this region, then we will sound the WARNING for a potentially large quake to occur in the M6.7-7.7 range.
The entire west coast of the U.S. is now affected by these two on-going slow-slip events, and is primed for a major quake. Both potentially large quakes could be triggered in sequence, one after the other, beginning with a mega-quake in the Pacific Northwest, with catastrophic consequences along the entire west coast of the U.S.
For now, we watch and wait, monitoring these tremors on a daily basis. This has been the longest “watch and wait” on a slow-slip event that I can ever remember, but one of these days soon there will be a great “release” and major seismic events will unfold.