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To the question in your title, my Magic 8-Ball says:

Most likely

Hi! I'm a bot, and this answer was posted automatically. Check this post out for more information.

I am so not a twitter,
cause, when i saw RT, i thought Russian Television.

And, what are these people making their guesses based upon?

Can't speak for others but mine is based on innocent til proven guilty. If she had added a “don't know” option I would have used that. But only because I have't seen @styxhexenhammer posting at the time:

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