Sometimes it's very difficult to predict the effects a change like this can have downstream.

No it is not, but to do so one needs to have and consider all the data, not just a part.

Steem problem is that 93% is on the hands of 0.1% and there is an enormous breach in the inflationary rewards pool distribution, too little is dripping above dolphin level, that is the reason we fail into user retention.

I invite you to use google translate on this post (It already paid out so i hope you don't consider abuse i'm linking it here) https://steemit.com/castellano/@nnnarvaez/steem-economia-basica-proyectos-y-ballenas

I keep meaning to make an english version, but can't find the time to do it.