Nice points you made @lukestokes ... Markets are definitely not rational and thats why trading is profitable... But in the long run (whatever long is, my guess for bitcoin is that long is 5-8 years), rationality and logic will dictate its value (fair)... !
I think it was Graham (Warren’s Mentor, if I remember correctly) who said that its a game between two partners (You and Mr/Miss Market) and sometimes Market is optimistic, when thats the case you sell your share to the Market and sometimes Market is pessimistic, when thats the case you buy some share from Market... But ultimately both you and Market are heading (at least in Bitcoin) to make money, and if you do the exchanging of shares (with Mr/Miss Market), you will be making a lot of money :-))
Yep, that makes sense to me. The whole be greedy while others are fearful and fearful while others are greedy approach.
Yes and its very powerful too in the long run... If you start with 50-50 with {You, Mr.Market} as partners and every time it market increases by say x% you sell shares to Mr.Market (because he wants to buy) and everytime the market decrease by x% you buy shares from Mr. Market (because he wants to sell)... its very simple and do-able. If you have a good instrument (stock, currency, bitcoin) , ultimately it increases and you make many folds more than your partner (Mr.Market) :-)
Aarcee: That mathematical formula (50-50) only works when the investment trades sideways. A trending investment will see profits destroyed. Try it on Apple over the last 20 years, or bitcoin over the last 9 years.
@swissclive , lets try it out... How about Apple... ? You decide the x, what say ?
Great for simplicity let's do
Apple vs cash,
Disney (DIS)
General Electric (GE)
Three stocks with very different behaviours over the last 24 months.
Can you crunch your strategy over the last 24 months? Happy to assume zero trading costs for then exercise