multiple H2H. Let's say you make a 30th percentile lineup, meaning 70% of lineups beat you and 30% of lineups lose to you.

if you play 100 50/50s you probably cash none of them.
if you play 100 head to heads, you probably cash 30 of them.

head to head is lower variance, but the games may be harder if you have an unknown name in the lobby.