This is a weekly blog entry on my NFL DFS results.
If you missed my previous recaps:
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
So many mistakes
I am really disappointed in how I played this weekend. On Thursday, I made a pretty big error on my Draftkings lineup by locking in Zach Miller at the tight end spot. I knew Jack Doyle would be a great play, but since both the Bears receiving unit and the Packers secondary was decimated due to injury, I felt Zach Miller was better straight up and worth owning on Thursday contests. Looking at how the lineup ended, I really wish I could have had Doyle+Broncos D over Miller+Titans D:
QB Aaron Rodgers 27.74 lock
RB DeMarco Murray 24.7 lock
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 20.3 lock
WR Julio Jones 29.4 lock
WR Cameron Meredith 2.2 lock
WR Ty Montgomery 22.6 lock
TE Zach Miller 6 lock
FLEX Le'Veon Bell 24.9 lock
DST Titans 1 lock
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS: 158.84
It was the team I originally wanted, but I forced in Miller. But you have to take the good with the bad because I also forced in Aaron Rodgers over Matt Ryan because I believed he was the superior play this week and that side worked out.
On Sunday DK contests, I forced in Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, while every other sharp player had an Andy Dalton lineup that faded Julio but had the perfect lineup otherwise. A few of the projection sites had a criminally low estimate of how Julio would do and most top players just trusted it. I fixed the numbers to my liking and of course I was right on Julio, but the other top WR (Mike Evans and AJ Green) both beat Julio so I gained nothing.
I also faded Spencer Ware on both Draftkings and Fanduel. Going into the day I couldn’t imagine a scenario where I played a running back other than Demarco Murray, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Spencer Ware. Around 630am PST it was announced that Jamaal Charles would play, which was enough incentive for me to move off Ware. Charles basically did not play, which I should have assumed would happen but I didn’t see through the obvious bluff by the Chiefs while most other good players did. Despite not getting many touches, Ware exceeded value and the lineups with him were all amazing and crushed. One of the lineups I chose to play instead won, the other lost, but my Ware lineup would have won easily.
Draftkings: -$6888.03
Two mistakes cost me a win on draftkings. I need to play better than that, nobody to blame but myself for the losses on DK this week.
Fanduel: +$3236.12
Not playing Ware hurt less on Fanduel, but it definitely hurt. Had I played the Ware lineup I wanted to, I would have won everything. It was all about getting the 3 top WR this week, almost every other WR was in a sketchy spot.
Yahoo: +$6812.70
Lost a 5k HU against Condia but won everything else to book a win this week. Spencer Ware was cheap enough there that I still played him, and I made the right choices at other positions.
FantasyAces: +$2477.08
Loved my lineups on aces this week. Surprised I didn’t win more, but I didn’t cash the $2650 six player double up this week. Nothing I could do, set as well as possible.
FantasyDraft: +$8093.11 (roughly 10k in buyins)
Hated my Thursday lineup and loved my Sunday lineup. On Thursday I locked Mike Gilleslie and faded Ty Montgomery, both large mistakes. I knew there was a chance LeSean McCoy would play and that Ty Montgomery was unbelievable value, but I didn’t try hard enough to fit him and was punished on Thursday. At least I found the nuts on Sunday to still have a big week there.
Overall: +$13730.98
No blitzfantasy games this week, Dan or whoever puts lineups in for him avoided playing us. Think those games are gone forever now, good thing we were able to win both weeks against him before he moved on.
I should be satisfied with booking a win, especially when I would have happily traded in all my buyins to break even 30 minutes into Sunday’s games, but I’m disappointed in my process this week. I slacked on my research and made multiple mistakes that I can’t afford. This wasn’t like week 1 where I was beating myself up over making the optimal but wrong play due to ownership reasons, these were clear cut mistakes. Good thing for the small sites to keep me afloat.
2016 NFL Season Overall: +$282,153.47 and 1 Fanduel Live Final Seat
Need to look past the mistakes and be grateful for the luck I’ve had these first 7 weeks. NBA starts today and I’m simultaneously excited and dreading the 60-70 hour weeks I’ll be putting in for the next few months. Between NBA, NFL, and golf going on I won’t have much time to check steemit, but I’ll try to pump out my weekly NFL results blog. Good luck to everyone in NBA and week 8 of NFL!
My name is Ryan Daut and I'd love to have you as a follower. Click here to go to my page, then click 
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I am a professional gambler, and my interests include poker, fantasy sports, football, basketball, MMA, health and fitness, rock climbing, mathematics, astrophysics, cryptocurrency, and computer gaming.
Excellent work once again, even if you had some mistakes. When working long weeks, at a particular point, I'd think you would start to see diminishing returns. Do you ever feel like you're spreading your time across too many events/sports? Or do you manage to find a workable balance?
I'm wearing myself thin, but definitely not spreading time across too many sports. I can make optimal golf lineups in 2-3 hours a week, basketball/football a lot of the work is registering and making lineups takes time, but I can handle it. Mostly just getting a bit burnt out, but need to work hard for another year while it's still profitable.
Your doing really well this season overall, nice job.
Did you lose most of the money in GPP's on Draftkings? I just feel like 162 points you probably win at least 55%~ of cash games this week. I think the mistake I made was thinking to take either AJ GREEN OR Juilio in a lineup, and not both in the same (for GPP) Had Jacquizz/Murray/Jack Doyle everywhere. Eagles D I should have taken more, made a mistake there I think? I was actually considering taking HILL w/ AJ due to how I felt the game flow would lead to Hill getting some decent opportunities, and felt like hill would be like 1% owned given the amount of other chalky RB's this week, and while it somewhat did, his biggest points came when the game was still relatively close.. Would've definitely liked to try andhave a Jacquizz/Hill/Green/Julio/Hilton - Not sure if that would've worked out or not though. (Simply didn't because of limited BR)
High stakes games are tougher, cash line was pretty high up. There were some contests where less than 170 wouldn't cut it.
I'm not too surprised given how chalky AJ Green, Julio, Jacquizz,Murray seemed to be. From one LPer to another, in regards to NBA now starting, it seems finding the good value plays on a nightly basis is a big key as it can be in NFL as well, do you have anywhere in particular that you like to research/use for information like that? BTW Daut, whats really crazy, I remember watching your "losing" hand on TV and remember thinking about how insane that spot was... I also remember watching, and remember thinking that the wind had to be pretty annoying after a while. Then somehow I stumble across LiquidPoker.net from some people over at what used to exist, Ballerpoker?, now I've somehow came across your by googling for DFS Something. Anyways, as you said in one of your other comments, theres about a year left,maybe this year, of what seems to be profitable DFS. What is your suggestion to try and capitalize on a very limited BR? $200 option a month to deposit at most. I have yet to bink a GPP, which isn't that big of a surprise
I still can't believe I chose to play Jamaal Charles in half my lineups. =/
I went with Allen Robinson and Pitta instead of A.J. Green and Doyle.
I did not win money this week. On to week 8 !
Hard to stay interested if you only check steemit once a week...
Very nice, any thoughts on the upcoming NFL season. Which teams should bettors target early