I think some of the pessimism I see is because we're heading into winter, and just like last winter, the price of Steem is sagging. It got pretty bad last winter, I was at $1-4 per post for a while. I hope it doesn't get that bad this winter.
The proof is in the pudding, with respect to whether Steemit works. Do people who produce good content succeed? How long does it take them to make it?
Those are the really important metrics. How it happens is unimportant to me, because I don't trust myself to know how a Utopia ought to look or operate.