Since yesterday’s breakout, bitcoin has dropped back into the expanding wedge. It bounced off the $6,280 support, and then respected the descending resistance line of the expanding wedge. Price is now trading within a range between the $6,280 support and top of the expanding wedge. The battle between bulls and bears certainly rages on.
I’m seeing many mixed signals throughout the market. For example, the 4 hour RSI has developed a small rising wedge. This suggests price may break down, at least temporarily.
Shorts remained stacked, while longs are weak. From a market makers point of view, they may want to drive price up to take out stops, then bring it crashing back down.
I realize this is frustrating to hear, but I’m seeing structure that could drive the market in either direction. From a bullish perspective, we’ve completed a well known bullish reversal pattern, which I discussed these past 2 days (Bulkowski’s wedge). Zooming in on the 1 hour chart, we can see bitcoin appears to have completed 5 clear waves up, an ABC correction and is now starting 5 more waves up. If this count is accurate, it might play out like this:
From a bearish point of view, I could count that wedge as an expanding triangle, ABCDE correction. If that’s correct, bitcoin MAY have started 5 waves down. If correct, it could play out like this:
In today’s video update, I outline where each count will be validated and invalidated. I also discuss further price movement, traps to avoid, various scenarios to watch out for and MUCH more. If you’re not watching my videos, you’re only getting a small part of the story.
Video Analysis:
If you’re viewing this on a site other than Steemit, and you don’t see the above video, navigate to Steemit or TIMM (https://mentormarket.io/profile/@workin2005?aff_id=Workin2005) in order to watch.
BIAS:
Short Term: Neutral
Longterm: Very Bullish
I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading!
Workin
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by Workin2005
You have given us lot of scenarios. I still say maybe a slight swing up and then sub $6000 to around $5000-$5500.
Not a lot...just 2 scenarios.
I don't believe that the 5400 scenario is going to happen... at least I hope so.
Cheers!
I hope not either. My bias is always bullish, but I can't ignore the bearish possibility.
It's good to be optimistic, but who would have thought that such prices would come again? (especially altcoins)
My point was, I'm a bull at heart. I'm unconsciously always looking for the bullish set up. If I don't acknowledge that, I'll miss the bearish possibility. Because I recognize my bias, I'm able to force myself to view the market from a bearish point of view as well. That way I don't miss things like this latest altcoin crash.
Thanx for sharin important info
in your bearish scenario, could the E location be a possible 4th wave? with a 5 subwave down for a 5th ? thanks!
Hi @itzroyyyy. The short answer is no for many reasons. If the E wave was instead a wave 4 as you suggest, that would make the B wave a wave 1. That would mean wave 4 extended beyond the start of wave 1...which is an invalid count or a failed wave. Either way, it doesn't work. There are many other reasons, but that's the most obvious. Hope that makes since.
oh ok gotcha. i was looking at tradedevils count, he had your B as (iii), your CDE was labeled ABC, C being the (iv), and then start down to (v). i see this going either way for sure.
Sorry...I didn't realize you were referring to the larger primary waves. Yes, every 5 wave set is part of a larger primary wave. Sam from trade devils is a great guy and a great trader. His count had bitcoin in an ABC expanded flat. While I like Sam's TA, I disagree this time due to the perfect pattern of what appears to be Bulkowski's wedge. I think it HAS to be counted as an expanding, ABCDE triangle. That said, the truth is, our counts are pretty much the same.
My bearish 5 waves down scenario are sub-waves of a larger primary wave 5. Where Sam and I differ is on where the primary wave 3 ends and the primary wave 4 begins. We both agree on the ending point of primary wave 4...even though I only listed the sub-waves above. That said, from this point, our bearish counts are pretty much the same. Hope that makes since.