off the 0.618 level proved to be short lived and as we broke below it the next static level of strong support is @ 0.764 Fibonacci retracement ( $4772) which is very close to the 89 weeks (brown) WMA dynamic strong support (currently @ $5185). The rest of the CC market will find support together with Bitcoin.
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/8270320/btcusd-w1-simplefx-ltd
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STOPSomething to keep in mind:
A replicated model of "Economic Bubbles" by Jean-Paul Rodrigue which is overlaid onto the BTCUSD
exciting times ! just too bad I'm on Coincheck..
Thank you for the update
@ srezz Do you suppose there will be a reversal after that?
At this point of time there's no technical evidence of a potential reversal. We should first see how strong the bounce is going to be.
are you talking about this bounce?
No, I'm expecting a bounce off the 89 weeks WMA which is currently @ $5150. And the lowest point before the current bounce was $ 5816 (my data feed). Usually it is much more exact and close to the WMAs. Having said that, it looks like the market is bottoming out.
I'm showing $5000- $5200 low for the month, but a monthly close around $7000. I'm using August of 2016 as the low for my measurement. Does that fit with what you think?
Please guys remember to keep your stop losses active. Also,Am I the only one here that gets excited on the way down as well? Thanks as always.
How did you arrive to these 5000-5200 figures? We bounced off one of the long term trend lines as the market is heavily oversold short term. But I don't think we hit the bottom yet.
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/8278435/btcusd-d1-simplefx-ltd
0.768 retrace of the GDAX low (890) to the high (19617).
Edit: I just reworked it and now I see what you mean
The measurement must be taken from the lowest low of the previous bear market on the 15th of Jan. 2015 to the all time high on the 17th of Dec. 2017 ($162.68 and $19704.18 respectively in my data feed).
Even tho i got out at the higher price, im still nervous because of the price. The current mood of the market is just depressing.
@ srezz Do you think the reversal has already happened? By the way, thank you for sharing your knowledge!
So far we have just a bounce. For the reversal to occur we need 13, 34 and 89 WMAs to turn positive on at least 4 hour charts. It has to also be confirmed by the upward looking 40 days WMA.
@srezz so you think this is a bull trap and then it potentially hits a lower low?
Pls see my last update.