Bitcoin Bear Market: Seems like we're going down to $5400 from the looks of it - Return of 2014?

As Bitcoin drops below the 8K support line I think we'll be on the lookout for the next big support. But the drop has been bigger than before, and I feel this may be indicative of something bigger.

NEXT SUPPORT

We've just broken through the $8000 support which means we're setting a lower low, which is usually indicative of a bear move which means we're likely to go down even further. I'm no technical analyst expert, but from what I can see on the charts the next big support lines we can fall back to are at around $5400, which is the same level as last time's real dip from before Bitcoin went parabolic.

If this supports hold, great. But it's no guarantee that it will, as Bitcoin has dropped more significantly than previous dips in 2017. To me that signals the end up the real bull action, atleast for a little while.

2014 ALL OVER AGAIN?

This feels a lot like 2014 when the last big bubble burst and we saw a bear market for the next 3 years all the way until a year ago. If that is the case, then we will likely see a big bounce in the near future and climb back to about $14-15K and then fail to push through, resulting in a slow but steady decline over the months after that as more and more people step out.

Below is the Bitcoin chart for the 2013/2014 bubble and crash.

You can see that back then Bitcoin also suffered a crash more than 50-60% from it's top quite quickly after. Then it rose again steadily up to about $1000 before proving it couldn't smash through that, and slowly the tide turned and the price went down to eventually $200 over the course of months/years and did not move much from there.

For comparison's sake, here is the same chart from Coinmarket cap of Bitcoin today.

What's interesting is that there are similarities, but also differences. What stands out as a difference is that this time the drop is much steeper and steadier, and last time there seemed to be more optimism than this time. It stayed above $750 for quite a while before definitively dropping below it, whereas in the current market Bitcoin has yet to go through such a phase. This is where I would see my call to $14-15K take place, where we would hover for a while potentially.

I'm not advocating selling; on the contrary, I hodl. If this does end up being a repeat of the 2014 crash, then I intend to hodl through the bear market just the same as I did last time. Yes, I could probably try to sell and buy back later.. but these are all theories and speculation and I have been wrong before. I feel the risk of not having Bitcoin outweighs the risk of not having Bitcoin. I could get shaken out and diminish my position in it.. and I feel I already don't have enough of it!

And besides, if we do see a repeat of 2014 then I am all the more bullish on the long term and I will be confident that next bubble we'll see $100-200K per Bitcoin. If it drops low enough, I have made myself the promise to definitely throw some more money at it. I've gone through these cycles before.... there's a time for spring and a time for winter, in crypto markets just like in the weather. Once the winter passes the spring will return, more glorious than ever before.

(Art by Roy Lichtenstein)