I'm highly excited about the Bitcoin price drop and I'm ready to buy. These are the price levels at which I am looking to buy Bitcoin (BTC) at in the dark times ahead.
Bearish so that we can be Bullish
I've been waiting long for Bitcoin to drop below $6000 and had almost given up on it happening even though all my TA indicated that it should happen. According to my theory, and that of many others, the drop we are currently experiencing is a painful but necessary move in order for the Bitcoin price chart to turn bullish again. When they say 'Buy the Dip', it's this dip they are talking about. When they say 'HODL' it's this dip through which we HODL, lest we get shaken out of the market. Once we have gone full maximum bearish with the price, all the way until there are no more bears left, only then will it be time to be bullish again. History repeats itself once more with Bitcoin. All of this has happened before and all of this will happen again - I am convinced. For me the coming months are my accummulation period. Make no mistake - this is going to last for months.
So now that we've finally breached the critical $6000 level and gone all the way below $5000 it is finally time for me to determine at which points I will be buying Bitcoin and I decided to share them with you. Of course, none of this should be taken as financial advice and please make up your own mind. I am merely letting you know what I am doing, so that you can reflect on it and make your own decision.
Below you can see my chart from tradingview where I have illustrated several levels at which I will be buying.
As you can see I have drawn horizontal pink lines at approximately:
- $4300
- $3700
- $3000
- $1850
- $1650
- $1350
- $1200
These are the levels at which I can identify significant support levels. I have drawn them approximately, so there are probably some optimizations to be made in order to get lower buy-in prices, but it's easy to miss a buy opportunity if you try to time it 100% and quite frankly I was too lazy to make it exact on the chart. There's no way to determine how far we will go, so I have created lines all the way down to $1200 which is about the lowest I can imagine it going (because it is the peak ATH of the bubble from 2013). I will be buying at each of these levels all the way down.
How low can we go
The way I see it is that this bubble is no different from the bubble from 2013/2014. As such I consider the previous bubble to be a great indicator and guideline on how to deal with the current bubble burst.
As you can see, last time we capitulated over the final Fibonacci level and we eventually managed to find a bottom about 33-50% lower, depending on whether you want the absolute bottom or the 'more or less' bottom. The absolute bottom is somewhere around $160 and the average bottom where we hung out for a year was about $200-220. I am expecting a similar resolve this time around. For comparison's sake let's bring up today's chart with the same fibonacci levels:
As you can see we have just broken through the Fibonacci levels, at about $4300 which I have set up as my first buy-in point. If we bottom out at the same percentage(s) as last time around we can expect a drop of 33% to about $3000 and possibly a downward spike to the absolute bottom at 50% somewhere around the $2000 level in which case the $1850 support level seems best place since it shares support levels with previous support.
I believe $3000 in 2018/2019 is the new $200 that we saw in 2014/2015. If you were lucky last time, you could've even gotten Bitcoin as low as $160. This time around we may see similar chances with short, momentary downward spikes that breach the $3000 level. If you're able to catch these then lucky you. If not then long-term $3000 seems like a great place to buy in. Not only does it match my fibonacci theory, but it is also heavy support from last summer where it functioned both as a ceiling as well as a price floor before. $3000 will be heavily defended, and I expect that for the next year we will see the price around this level quite often.
How long?
All in all I don't expect to hit the absolute bottom for quite a while. We may rush down quickly but usually these scenario's take a few months to play out. Just look at the monthly chart's MACD indicator. Based on that it is pretty obvious to me that the bear market is only 50% through. By Q2 2019 there is a good chance we will finally start some kind of reversal.
Note by the way, how finally we are showing increased volume on the monthly MACD chart too, which further indicates that we are in the capitulation phase which is necessary in order to advance. This is a good sign. More red ahead first though!
If you are still hodling, congratulations or condoleances or both! You've now graduated into the ranks of Veteran HODLers. If the only reason you're still holding is because you're 90% down and what's left is not worth cashing out anyway, then congratulations: this is how many HODLers are born. It happened to me too, last time around. Keep the faith, hodl strong and don't let the bad whales scare you - this is the true rollercoaster that is Bitcoin and rollercoasters can be scary if they go down really fast.
Buy low and sell high is better than the chartists' buy high and sell low, but why are you focused on Bitcoin and not on Stocks or other digital currencies?
I strongly doubt that the declines are over, but even if not, it is better to buy when the price declines than when it rises.
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The traditional financial world doesn't interest me as much to be honest. I find the tech aspect of crypto most interesting. Perhaps if the crypto-experiment fails completely and disappears, I may one day venture into that world, but so far crypto has been keeping my attention quite well. I'm still a very strong believer in it.
There are so much more profits, tools, ease, legality in the traditional financial system to overlook it in favor of a market that is as big as a single DJIA component.
My worst case scenario is that there will always be some digital currencies, even if as obsolete past relics that will be considered as scams or material for jokes about their adopters, similar to how Bitcoin was treated by most of those whom heard about it in its first couple of years, only by then it will be a more confirmed failure, that will be harder to shill for as "the future" of finance/economy.
Bitcoin itself deserves to fail because it is a bad idea.
Some of its features are good, but at least one superior alternative already exists, and I pity you if you already claimed it, because you should have gotten your reputation up to a full 60 prior to claiming it, and it is not too difficult.
Do you know about other superior alternatives to Bitcoin?
I tend to consider DPOS as superior too, but I know about one person whom knows much more than I know, that is a staunch antagonist of DPOS, even if he uses this platform.
He works on an alternative that its currency will be listed as CRED, if I comprehended and remember correctly.
About its details I asked and was not answered, maybe because they are still secrets.
Regardless, did you try trybe.one?
If yes, what are your impressions of it?
Do you know about any alternatives to STEEM that are worthy to use?
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Hope you got your juicy $3700 BTC buy in today! Next stop: $3k.
Actually I was ready to buy but I decided against it at the last moment. I didn't see a clear bounce that gave me hope and consider 3600-3700 to be weak support anyway (and we did push through).
So now I am waiting for the 3000-3200 range indeed.
I did buy a small amount at 4200 too though, DCA'ing down.
I am also keeping in mind that we may drop significantly below 3000 at some point too, if only for a few minutes. The final dump..sorta. Will still take a while though.. I think too many investors from 2017 still have too much hope. We'll be seeing some upward momentum first... to give those people hope and start buying back in - only to crash it back down and make them lose their money and their final bits of faith.
I told you before, things weren't nearly bloody and depressed enough before. And I feel we're still not there.. almost, but not quite. And there's so many people hoping for 3K bitcoin that I am starting to feel more and more like it's going to drop way below it to shake those people out too. By the end of it all there will be nothign but hodlers of last resort, and people who've lost so much that selling doesn't even make sense anymore (this is what happened to me last bullrun in 2013-2014) and as a result they hodl. Literally everybody who came in to crypto for the money will then be out of the market, and only those who understand and believe in it will remain (and some people 'trapped' in it too)
Fair enough, a little risky, but probably a good move on your part.
I'm contemplating cashing in a few shares to buy crypto (fiat reserves are bone dry at the moment), but since I only really have gold and platinum (which are looking positive) worth selling at the moment, I don't really want to do that either. A nasty catch-22 for me :( I may just dump the platinum, but I haven't decided yet, and time is (possibly) short.
Don't be in a rush... Capitulation is still not done, and afterwards we get Depression which is less bloody but in many ways worse than capitulation because it is very hard to still believe. Depression lasts many months before it's over. And that means we will be hovering slightly above the ultimate bottom for a few months.
Also wonder if you REALLY want to catch the absolute bottom. Look at last bubble, and consider if it really makes a difference to get BTC at $160 or at $220 in the grand scheme of things. Then consider the added risk of trying to nail the bottom, against the added security of waiting it out for some kind of plateau to form. You might not get BTC at $2000 or whatever if we drop to there, but getting it at $3000 will be close enough IMO
All true. Thanks
Bitcoin is what Cylons use too
I loved that show! Glad you caught the reference :)
Hahaha! I love your view!
Posted using Partiko iOS
Thanks! :)
as said before in another post
'lets grow some balls (breasts in our case) and lets start cracking!
Exactly!!
You know what's funny is that in the past year all my talking about Bitcoin and crypto has affected my mum. Now that we're going down, she's super anxious to buy more BTC. While the whole market is going through depression, my mother is having full-on FOMO attacks and I actually have to slow her down and keep telling her that I expect us to go lower. So amazing, my mom is a HODLmom (<--- I feel like this could be a new 'thing' to put on t-shirts and the like)
everyone just need to chill . up or down life still go on .
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