Superforecasting crypto currencies: June 2018

in #cryptocurrency6 years ago

Latest developments I'm scoring

30 June 2018

Scoring according to potential: 5% for a definite action (positive or negative) — not many of those, 3%: probable, 1%: possible (changes in the probability of success or failure). Scoring for individual projects may be different from possible general effect on prices. Generallly 2% suggests cautious investors will react with buys or sells, while 5% suggests I think most investors would react either way.

SUMMARY

Prices continued their downward trend despite an avalanche of news for crypto investors. Though bitcoinwas 13.57 % down on the month, on my count the market should have gone up b 76%. So much for fundamentals.

Global

People Know About Crypto, But Are Not Buying Into It, ING Report Finds 27 June -1%__

Facebook Reverses Ban On Cryptocurrency Ads 27 June +1%

Facebook Reverses Ban on Cryptocurrency Ads, Maintains Ban on ICOs 26 June

Bank of International Settlements to Publish New Crypto Research 15 June +2%

Police Tracks Down Drug Dealer Through Bitcoin Transactions History 15 June +3%

Should Schools Offer Bitcoin Education? 17 June +2%

UN Trade Body Examines Blockchain's Potential in Supply Chains 12 June +3%

Data Shows Switch From ‘Hodlers’ to Speculators in Bitcoin in Last 6 Months 8 June -2%

Thomson Reuters Begins Sentiment Tracking of Top 100 Cryptocurrencies 13 June +2%

National

Does Ross Ulbricht Deserve a Presidential Pardon? 29 June

Cryptos on the Verge of Crossing the Tipping Point as 9%__ of Europeans Say They Hold Digital Currencies 27 June +2%

Korean Watchdog Tightens Rules on Crypto Exchange Bank Accounts 27 June +2%

Feds Seize Crypto Worth $20 Million From Darknet Vendors 27 June +2%

Cryptocurrency Firm Circle Sees Institutional Interest Spike 30%__ 27 June +2%

Maltese Government Approve Three DLT / Crypto Bills in Parliament 27 June +3%

Central Bank of The Bahamas to Introduce Cryptocurrency 25 June +2%

First cryptocurrency mobile phone network YOVO chooses Malta as its home +2%

Bahamas Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Conference on Grand Bahama, June 2018 +1%

Blockchain Answers Kenyan Entrepreneurs’ Prayers 16 June +3%

Bitcoin Is Now Accepted at a 550-Year-Old Istanbul Market 15 June +1%

S. Korean Coinrail Exchange Hacked With $40 Million in Crypto Stolen, BTC Plummets 10 June -3%

South Korea’s Bithumb reduces crypto hack losses to $17M 29 June +2%

Abu Dhabi Authorities Introduce Cryptocurrency Regulations in Special Economic Zone 30 June +2%

Binance Expands into Uganda Opening Its First Crypto-Fiat Exchange 29 June +2%

Marine Exploration in the Bahamas to be Funded by Blockchain 13 June +2%

Binance, Digital Jersey Sign MoU to Establish Crypto Exchange In Jersey 13 June +2%

500,000 German Homes to be Powered by Renewable Energy in Blockchain Pilot 12 June +3%

Banks spend $1.7bn a year on blockchain 13 June +3%

Businesses

Mastercard Earns Patent for Anonymous Blockchain Transactions 29 June +2%

Gamble at Bitcoin Lightning Speed 29 June +1%

IBM Announces Blockchain Starter Plan For Enterprises 29 June +2%

[Volkswagen, Audi Employees Being Coached on IOTA (MIOTA)] 27 June +1%

Walmart, Nestlé, 8 Other Companies Launch Food Trust to Leverage Blockchain 27 June +2%

Pharmaceutical Merck & Co is Looking to Use Blockchain Tech Against Counterfeit Products 25 June +3%

Akropolis building a new smart contract-based pensions infrastructure 16 June +1%

CREMIT- FIRST EVER ALTCOIN INSURANCE 16 June +2%

https://btcmanager.com/microsoft-researcher-creates-blockchain-based-voting-system-ethereum-looks-to-implement-similar-system/ 15 June +1%

A Finance Minister, a Harvard Alumnus Professor, and Michael Terpin Are Backing the U.S. Etheal Healthcare Project 8 June 2%__

No More LSD or Crypto, European Authorities Seize Both in Huge Drug Raid 29 June +1%

Blockchain Startup VeChain and Deutsche Bahn Develop DApp for China’s Logistics Industry 12 June +2%

Cryptos

April Saw Coinbase Customers Taking Out 37%__ More Money Than They Put In 29 June -3%

Report: 2018 Token Sales Almost Double Last Year’s Results 29 June +2%

ICOs Have Generated $13.7 Billion in 2018 So Far, Nearly Doubling 2017 Numbers 29 June +2%

Less than 4%__ of Crypto Coins are Successful 29 June -2%

Sharp Increase in Misinformation Puts Cryptocurrency in a Negative Spotlight 29 June +2%

Tether Code 'Flaw' Was Actually an Exchange Integration Error 28 June +2%

Motley Fool: How the Technology Behind Bitcoin and Ethereum Could Change Your Life 28 June +3%

Lightning Network Shows 99 Percent Failure Rate on Large Bitcoin Transactions 28 June

Bitcoin’s Lightning Network Still Unsuitable for Large Payments, Research Suggests 28 June -2%

Callisto Offers Free Audits of Smart Contracts to Prevent a DAO Hack Repeat 29 June +2%

Travel Booking Expedia No Longer Accept Bitcoin (BTC) 28 June -2%

China Ranked EOS As #1 Blockchain: No Sight Of Bitcoin In The Top 10 25 June +2%

Bloomberg Research: Tether (USDT) Could Be Used for Price Manipulation on Kraken 29 Jue -2%

EOS Price Bounces as Creator Proposes Scrapping Constitution 27 June +3%

Breaking: EOS Mainnet Comes to a Halt as Bug Freezes Transactions 16 June -5%

Pornhub Now Accepts TRX and ZEN 27 June +3%

Blockchain patents spell an ominous sign for the crypto space 27 June -3%__

Ontology [ONT] Announces Partnership with [DAD] “Digital Advertising Platform” 26 June +3%

Alibaba Offshoot Trials First Blockchain Remittance to Philippines, Plans Global Expansion 25 June +3%

Enjin Coin CTO Creates ERC-1155, a New Token Standard for Ethereum 26 June +3%

Ethereum (ETH): Losing 50%__ Against Bitcoin Since Last Summer 26 June -2%

Commerzbank joins Enterprise Ethereum Alliance 20 June +2%

Ethereum Launches First Release of Casper, Client Testing Begins 19 June +3%

The World's Largest Brewer Is Using Ethereum to Track Ad Data 19 June +2%

ICON [ICX] Smart Contract Reports Fatal Bug, Team Working on Permanent Solution 17 June -5%

Price manipulation: Are Bitcoin and Ethereum Playing You Dirty? 15 June -5%

Malicious Monero Miners Made Off with 5%__ of Coins in Circulation, Over $175 Million – Bitcoin inside 16 June -3%

If Bitcoin isn’t a Security According to SEC, Which Coins are? : IOTA, EOS, Stellar Lumens, Litecoin and Tron 15 June -2%

Over $20M Worth of ETH Stolen from Misconfigured Wallets 15 June -5%

Microsoft Researcher Creates Blockchain-based Voting System; Ethereum Looks to Implement Similar System 15 June +1%

Investment in Blockchain by Financial Services Industry Grew Strongly in 2017 14 June +2%

Ontology [ONT] Collaborates with Carblock , Marks Entry in Automobile Sector 13 June +2%

Essentia.One to Release World’s First Interoperable Multi-Chain Dapp 11 June +2%

Coinbase to add support for Ethereum Classic (ETC) 11 June +2%

IOTA Unveils Qubic: The Key to an “IOTA-based World Supercomputer?” 4 June +3%

Brave Browser Integrates Privacy Service Tor 29 June +1%

TRON Founder Allegedly Completes Acquisition of BitTorrent 13 June +1%

Quantstamp Under Fire: Buyers Say Faith Shaken In $65 Million Token 20 June S-3%

At issue is Quantstamp's acceptance of U.S. dollars and ether, rather than its token, QSP – which it used to raise a little over $30 million in an initial coin offering (ICO) last November – as payment for smart contract audits it has performed.

Essentia.One to Release World’s First Interoperable Multi-Chain dApp 11 June +3%

Predictions

Don't expect scoring here

3 Signals Suggest A Bull Crypto Market Is Around The Corner

Big Bounce as $20 Billion Pours Back into Crypto Markets 30 June

Crypto Sector Too Small to Affect German Financial Stability, Says Gov’t Committee 29 June +2%

Phillip Nunn Predicts Bitcoin at 60k by 2018

Binance Coin (BNB) Keeps Bucking the Bearish Trend, Here’s Why

Geopolitical Analyst Believes Blockchain Will Become ‘Obsolete’ 16 June

Tom Lee: Bitcoin Sell-Off Caused by Futures Expiring 15 June

Billionaire Investor Explains How Bitcoin Will Reach $250,000 15 June

Half of Top 10 Cryptocurrencies May Be Securities: Crypto Hedge Fund Executive 15 June

At UN BFI Summit, CFTC’s Benham Suggests Crypto is “Modern Miracle” 10 June

Cryptocurrency Market Will Be Worth $20 Trillion, Says Billionaire Investor Mike Novogratz 8 June