Our internal social media site had a couple of negatively-toned articles on Bitcoin and the state of Crypto-Currencies, which as a crypto-enthusiast irked me a little. I posted a comment on one of these articles arguing a more favourable point of view, to which the editors were intrigued and in return asked me to write a follow up article on it, expressing a different side of the debate. It received plenty of interest from staff who'd only ever heard the topic discussed in a negative light, so I thought I'd share it here for you all to read too. Let me know what you think :)
IN DEFENSE OF CRYPTO-CURRENCIES
Working for a Bank, I can’t help but feel uncomfortable publicly discussing my interest in crypto-currencies; it feels almost counter-productive, as the very ambition of these coins is to rewire the foundations on which the industry I work for is built. That being said, we live in an age now where disruptive technologies are being openly considered, if not welcomed - and so they should, regardless of any ‘threat’ it may pose to an established system or industry.
Both crypto-currencies and the underlying ‘Blockchain’ technology they’re built on serve many purposes and can benefit both consumers and corporations alike. The media attention on the former is mostly negative, while the latter is discussed halfheartedly and not as thoroughly as it deserves.
THE CRIMINAL ARGUMENT
For those who heard about Bitcoin before its recent claim to fame when it crossed that psychological milestone of $10,000 USD in late 2017, you probably first remember its use as a digital payment method for drug dealers on the dark-web site, Silk Road. The main argument against Bitcoin at this time was that it facilitated the exchange of goods and services on the black market, allowing criminals to use an anonymous currency to purchase narcotics, weapons and other illegal products. This has since been debunked, as the Blockchain that Bitcoin is built on is entirely traceable – every single transaction that has ever been made on the decentralised Blockchain ledger, is not only public but immutable; it cannot be deleted or altered. For criminals, this is by no means ideal, and so they have since turned to ‘privacy coins’ such as Monero and Z-Cash. Further to the argument that crypto-currencies are an enabler for criminal activities, I would argue that this is testament to the Blockchain technology that Crypto coins are built on. This technology transcends borders, regulations, financial monopolies and in some cases offers near flawless privacy. Sure, this is attractive to criminals, but historically criminals will always use the most advanced technology to fuel their motives. The internet wasn't widely understood when it first arrived, and the same argument was applied, suggesting that the Web was a haven for pedophiles & drug dealers – now look at us, completely dependent on the very same technology in our day-to-day lives.
The point here is that just because a new technology can be utilised by criminals, it doesn’t mean it should be banned outright, as doing so would only stifle innovation, forcing criminals to continue their business and habits through other means. We should celebrate new technology and adapt to it, accepting that any detrimental aspects are part-in-parcel of growth, and can always be overcome through other creative solutions.
THE BITCOIN OBSESSION
Almost every article written in the mainstream media, and even here at Bluenotes, is usually headlined with and focused on Bitcoin. This is understandable – Bitcoin was the first crypto-currency, and whose founder is curiously shrouded in mystery. Satoshi Nakamoto (the creator’s pseudonym) also created Blockchain, a very simple technology in theory, but a system of which could revolutionise all other industries, solving complex issues by means that are simple and effective. Satoshi, whoever he or she is, and depending on whether they are even still alive, would now be one of the richest people on the planet. Bitcoin has made unlikely millionaires and even billionaires out of people who wouldn’t have achieved this from attempting to game the traditional finance system. Its price has risen from literally a fraction of a cent when it first become tradable 7 years ago, to an all-time high in late 2017 where it topped $20,000 USD on some exchanges. And while other crypto-currencies are starting to be discussed in more depth, BTC is still the main trading pair for which the purchase of all other crypto-currencies is made possible. With the crypto market having such a dependence upon Bitcoin’s success, it’s only natural that it’s given so much attention. But in 2018, this will all change. Sure, Bitcoin’s price will continue to rise, providing that more fiat money is flowing inward rather than outward - with its limited supply of 21 million coins, the simple law of supply & demand guarantees an increase in value. But with a limited number of human beings to invest, and the possibility that interest in it will eventually decline, this growth will reach a tipping point and eventually stifle, whether that’s 6 months off or 50 years away.
We’ve seen Bitcoin’s crypto market dominance drop from between 80% - 90% over a year ago, to as low as 35% recently. As new money flows into Bitcoin, investors are inevitably exposed to the other crypto-currencies traded on these exchanges, and eventually find themselves delving into the rabbit hole, alongside millions of others, learning about these different coins on sites such as YouTube, Reddit, Facebook groups and other online forums. This influx of money into ‘alt’ coins will continue to surge in 2018, and as a result, the discussion will no longer be so obsessed with the ‘King’, Bitcoin.
THE BUBBLE
I will be the first to admit that the amount of ‘shut up & take my money!’ investors flooding the market right now is concerning. When your mother expresses interest in cryptos over Christmas dinner, when your normally conservative father asks you to help him invest, or when your hairdresser starts talking about Bitcoin with a tone of authority, you know that the market is beginning to look a little bubble-esque.
While I want financial freedom for all, and I also want friends and family to be able to invest in something whose returns are unbeatable, I agree that the current market is based purely on speculation, and this isn’t sustainable. People easily fall into the ‘get rich quick’ trap, but with an understanding of risk and having a patient attitude, many have become and will continue to get very rich from these alternative currencies. I do believe that eventually investor confidence and interest will inevitably plummet, as a result of either a slowing of market returns, persistent negative attention in the media, government attempts to regulate the market, or a combination of all of the above.
REGULATIONS & CONSUMER PROTECTION
With a recent market cap high of close to $800 Billion USD, it’s clear that we’re now dealing with big money – both institutional, and millions of small investors, innocent and gleeful. This is where big Banks and governments must be very careful of regulations if they are truly concerned about protecting the consumer. With so much market manipulation, both by ‘whales’ (investors with enormous balances) and by trading bots, some form of regulation surely can’t hurt. But if a group of governments came together to ban the trading of crypto-currencies and make crypto exchanges illegal, this would only hurt the consumer. Firstly, crypto-currencies will still be able to be traded outside the normal tracking process of traditional banking, as by nature they are decentralised. This will simply drive the use of the currencies underground even more for those who desire to keep using them. For those who are less educated or are less resistant to risk and change, they will panic sell before the ban, driving the price down and down until a huge portion of investors are now at a loss – all of this completely influenced by the stroke of a pen from the big cats of government, who supposedly wanted to protect the very citizens whose investment losses they were responsible for.
MAINSTREAM MEDIA BIAS
In the above hypothetical scenario, the media will post headlines… “Bitcoin now valueless after govt regulations” and social media commenters will laugh, bragging that they saw this coming all along. This would further uproot investor confidence, and next thing we would see a massive crash that was entirely avoidable had these bullying tactics and unnecessary bans not been imposed.
Mainstream media post an article every single time there’s a dip in the market, as if to prove a point, but rarely discuss the incredibly impressive returns that override these dips each time. They will call ‘Breaking News’, stating that South Korea, for example, is drafting legislation to ban crypto-currencies when this was entirely incorrect as a result of a mistranslation, but refuse to exercise journalistic integrity by editing and correcting their articles.
Governments, Banks and the media need to take a more mature approach to crypto-currencies - accept that they’re here, that they come with risks, but also exhibit technology that they themselves can benefit from, and accept the legitimate concerns of investors losing money from market volatility, but understanding the need to tread carefully when considering how to resolve this issue.
SUMMARY
Let’s move away from the Bitcoin-bashing articles that scoff at investors who’re falling for the supposed ‘bubble’ that they’ve been saying is going to pop for 5 years now. Let’s stop using the issue of Bitcoin mining taking up so much energy as a reason for it being banned, but rather start discussing the other cryptos such as Ethereum that are moving towards, or have already implemented a ‘Proof of Stake’ validation system that requires little to no energy at all. Let’s stop knocking Bitcoin itself as it struggles with huge network congestion, high fees and slow transaction times, but rather explore the other coins that have already solved this problem, and celebrate ones that are solving real-world issues such as the speed and cost with international SWIFT payments, or providing a viable alternative to the national currencies in Venezuela & Zimbabwe, which have been plagued with unhealthy inflation.
Ultimately, we should start to focus on the positive side of Crypto & Blockchain tech; it’s unique, offers financial freedom to those in countries without it, and it showcases the most innovative, revolutionary disruption to the status-quo not seen since the inception of the internet. This technology is new and it’s not perfect, but can we at least try to build on it and see where it takes us? Can we work to see how it could be utilised to benefit our institutions, as opposed to outright dismissing it just because the majority of us don’t yet understand it?
Crypto-currencies and Blockchain technology are here to stay in one form or another. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan-Chase initially called those who invested in Bitcoin ‘stupid’, and then later (suspiciously) changed his tune, admitting he regretted making this comment. Now his Bank is experimenting with Blockchain technology. Mark Cuban, multi-Billionaire investor who previously laughed at Bitcoin, now recommends that people hold a small percentage of it to maintain a well-diversified investment portfolio, and is now actively investing himself in ‘ICO’ crypto-currency crowd sales. Mark Zuckerberg, one of the wealthiest people on the planet publicly shared his favourable thoughts on crypto-currencies, and his interest in Blockchain technology to his 2 Billion Facebook users. Knowing now that it’s not just you’re run-of-the-mill geek in his mum’s basement that’s speaking out in favour of crypto, perhaps it’s time to join the conversation, alongside just some of these influential people listed above.
So one day when your grandkids come home from History class asking what it was like to live through and experience the Blockchain/Crypto revolution, will you excitedly tell them how you embraced and benefited from it during its infancy, or regretfully explain that you were late to the party because of your apathy and disinterest?