Interesting post and comment !
I think its important to understand too, that whats the most important is the underlying technology and end use of the crypto. That is going to determine its survivability.

In the case of Bitcoin, the Lighting Network is a game changer as it solves one of Bitcoins biggest problems and allows for micro transactions to be handled efficiently. And the current scale of Bitcoin's network is incomparable to its forks. I believe that once the gold rush on the crypto exchanges is over, you will see the best technologies survive. And I doubt there will be any surprises.