04/06/2019/10:00CET
#BTC has broken a key momentum indicator. What can we expect in the next days and weeks for the price of #Bitcoin

I am just back from a relaxing week vacation in the UK. Even though I promised to curtail my work, I was still sporadically looking at the markets. All I can say is that we are living through tumultuous times. More on that in my review below.

btw: the ++ is because I cannot help it. Macro-economics is what we must all look at now.

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BTCUSD Daily on Bitstamp

• Bitcoin is trading at 7857USD at press time
• We did hit a high of almost 9100 just a few days ago. But to be honest, that rally was savagely sold into.
• Since Feb we have been riding on top of the 21DEMA. There have only been the most brief of dips below it since then. This is one of the key momentum indicators for Technical Analysis.
• We have broken this indicator today!
• It will be interesting to see how we react to this indicator today. If we decisively close below it then we have some more distance to cover below us. It is normal for BTC to have a 40% retracement after runs. This would put us in the lower 5k range. If we consider the 6k RS line, I put my money on a visit to the 5300-5800 range before reversing again to bull mode.
• If we can close above the 21DEMA today, our upward momentum trend may still have some life in it, in which case an attempt at the high 9's or 10 is still possible without a correction. But I am still of the mind a retrace of ~40% is coming.

Macro picture

• Bitcoin has been on a total tear for the past months. In particular since the jump on April 2.
• Since the open of that day we have seen a 120% bottom to top move in BTC! At press time we are still on 91% of that gain. That is reminiscent of 2017!
• Many things are different since mid to late 2017. Some more noteworthy are: Now we have a well thought out scaling solution (LN), institutional players are no longer laughing at this asset and want into the next run, and the Authorities, despite their continued lip service to the dangers of crypto, are themselves playing catchup lest this beast crush them as it overtakes the legacy systems with the next downturn.
• These developments mean more people are ready to accept crypto as a serious thing rather than a scam.
• I think the next real burst of FOMO will be one for the record books!
• Crypto does not exist in a bubble anymore.
• Serious money is starting to jell around the fact that crytpo may be a new non correlated asset that may provide protection against market reversals.
• Crypto Funds and Custodian solutions are popping up like weeds now. This is the infrastructure the smart money needs before getting into crypto.
• The realignment to accommodate Bitcoin as a new non correlated asset is well under way and pretty much ready for action.

Outside crypto

• Some scary developments in the geopolitical sphere have rocked markets.
• The gorrilla is the dramatic escalation of the Tradewar between the US and China.
• China has become markedly more belligerent to Trump's chest beating.
• Many other countries are being sucked into this dispute which widens the impact of disruption.

Let's face it, this is not about bring back jobs or punishing China for some unfair practices. This is about geopolitical supremacy. This is a pure power play. The US feels its top position threatened by the rise of China and feels that the sooner it strikes back the better its chances of success.
Sadly the US and its allies are structurally past their used by date and it is just a matter of extending their time in the sun a little longer rather than resetting the clock on their empire.
Asia overall, and China in particular will have their time at the top.
The only question is how the transition will occur

• Western markets are in real trouble now.
• The tentative attempt by the US to reverse course and contract money supply and normalise interest rates has spectacularly failed and is dead as a policy.
• The world sits at a historically low interest rates, and historical high level of liquidity while all measures of economic activity are tanking.
• the 'smart' money is starting to get cold feet
• Stock buybacks are the only game it town, apart from mom and pop investors forced into ETF's late in the game because they _know _ their money in the bank is evaporating in hidden inflation. Hidden from the CPI print, but alive and well in the supermarket.
• Buybacks are only possible when it is virtually free to borrow. Hence interest rates must stay low or go lower.
• The US regulators are starting to look at the tech monopolies on their own shores. The shares of these are such a cornerstone of the overall markets that this could in of itself tank the ship. It is not a surprise Trump is looking at this since these tech Goliath's are against him and will try to sabotage his 2020 run.

Since every man and his dog in the MSM points to the stockmarket to underpin the confidence needed to keep this show going, this is where we look now to see now stable and solid this confidence is.

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SPX 1w

DJIA 1w

DAX 1W

OIL 1W

Dr Copper 1W

GOLD 1W

• I am tempted to do analysis on all of these but this post would become a epic saga
• If any of you follow the 2nd layer effects of different components of the market, you will see that these are not such rosy pictures
• Looks like late cycle turn around, not a good time to go traditional risk assets.
• A lot of double and triple tops and some head and shoulder patters playing out.
• And Gold is making a sharp breakout. A sign of a flight to safety. This could put real strain on the futures contracts. Imagine cash settled is not enough and holders want to move into the real thing!

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• In general you get my thesis here. Macro and Technical analysis are lining up for a perfect storm.
• Will central banks go nuclear and cut interst rates to -3% or deeper?
• Can they??
• Will we buy it???
• How many will think about cryptos in a new way if we do this?????
  
  
  
  
  As always guys, leave comments, have fun and trade safe.

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Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. Before investing any funds do your own research and make your own decisions. Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative.
And finally: Do not invest money you are not comfortable losing.

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