24/05/2019/10:00CET
#Bitcoin is showing resiliance at the mid 7k level. How does this portend for the near future of price action. Lets take a look at the charts and see

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BTCUSD Daily on Bitstamp

• Bitcoin is trading at 7864 USD at press time
• We have had a trading range between 7500 and 8100 over the last 4 days
• Volume is more subdued but it is matching what we saw after the early April spike that saw us move from the 4k to 5k range.
• As of May 10, the moving averages complex has been staked in the classical bull formation with the longer averages below the shorter.
• At press time we are trading at a 10% premium above the 21DEMA indicator.
• I feel that there is a local floor of 7500 at the moment. This is the level I am looking at which if breached will indicate a shift in probabilities toward a move lower into the 6k ranges.
• One may optimistically call this phase a short term accumulation and consolidation phase.
• One may also contrarily call this an elevated phase which requires a retracement to test previous support (6k) before a healthier bull market structure can form.
• I am taking speculative long positions at this range but adding stop losses against the contrarian case.
• Long term #BTC bulls I think would be safe to take these as buy opportunities because when btc is in the 5 digit price ranges, these accumulative trades will make them look like geniuses.

My take

• I think we hang on a knife edge. So many escalating issues are appearing geopolitically and geoeconomically that any one of them could trigger a stampede into cryptos.
• We are (crypto infrastructure) is far more ready for a bull run that in 2017 (scaling)
• Awareness has shown that the black reputation of bitcoin has faded and the general public is coming to the realization that this is not some computer scam, but a real exit door from the traditional financial system.
• I have chosen this video from Bloomberg as a lithmus test of the mainstream medias perception of Bitcoin now.
• Anyone who lived through the 2015-2016 period will attest to the sea change in this attitude.

scenario 1

• we will visit 9500-10000 while respecting a 7500 local floor, but then we will retrace about 40% to 6k! This will be the last time 6k bitcoin is ever on offer.

scenario 2

• we will hover around here with lowering volumes and then break down to either the 21dema, today at 7200, or we will fall to find support in the lower 6k range. Could even revisit levels in the 5k range but this will be aggressively bid because a perception that this is the last sub 6k btc there will ever be again, ever!

scenario 3

• we will grind around this level for some time till the 21DEMA and maybe even the 50SMA reaches us, and then break higher to the 9-10k levels.
  
  
  
  
  As always guys, leave comments, have fun and trade safe.

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Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. Before investing any funds do your own research and make your own decisions. Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative.
And finally: Do not invest money you are not comfortable losing.

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