Current Crypto Crash is a Conundrum: Low Volume AND High Volatilty

in #cryptocurrency8 years ago (edited)

Low trading volumes are not usually associated with high price volatility. What I mean by this intuitively is that usually when a lot of people are trading, prices have a tendency to move around a lot. This is pretty much true across all centralized markets, regardless of what asset you're talking about: crypto, stocks, bonds, commodities, etc... For example, the following chart plots the volume of the S&P 500 against its price changes. The curve forms a smile, because high volume leads to high price volatility.

Another Volatility Smile

Chart from MKTSTK.com's Another Volatility Smile

That makes the current decline in crypto asset prices all the more interesting, for during this current price decline we haven't seen trading volumes anywhere near what they usually are during a 20% correction. While its certainly true that current markets are eliciting more trading volume than we've had over the last few weeks, the volume right now is nothing compared to what it was during declines in February and January of this year.

Also interesting to point out, this current decline doesnt seem to be related to Tether, unlike the previous decline in Feb 2018.

We continue to watch the market closely, and expect this market to make it clear whether or not this is a temporary move or not over the next 24 hours.


Follow @marketstack for more updates about trading, finance, and technology

Sort:  

Hope this is temporary and the market recover soon, for the good of all.

same here, altho a big enuf crash would provide opportunities of its own, despite short term pain, as long as you have some cash on sidelines

That is the main thing if you still have money to invest at these low prices, I have placed 5 more orders at a much lower price, so im hoping that it goes and test the support line of the previous dip... by the end of the year I will be able to look back and laugh...

yeah its all about those cash reserves! it hurts when prices are rising and you're not fully invested but this is exactly why you hold some cash, to pick up the pieces during a crisis :-)

volume is still really low right now, still giving me pause to say this is over with... low volume levitation usualy ends w some kind of incineration

Yeah this low volume isn't really giving any clues away. The dump that has occured at the same time everyday for the last 8 days (except sunday) is also very strange...

Helpful post dear

Xrpusd for 0.2?
DQmPgYQhZVXFnLM6ZsHwAC21eRbTqvSRH5jKzYDpncaxoBu.png

i mean anything is possible, but i guess the low volume feels like

  1. if volume stays low, and we don't rally over the next 24 hours, then i would say look out below
  2. however, if we get accerlating volume and a basing market / rallying market, then its probably gonna mean revert

Agreed.
Following.
Following back?

thanks for follow, but i don't really play that game, if i like what you write then i will follow and i act the same :-)

seems like you use TA alot in your trading

Yes, I use mainly TA with a little bit of fundamental analysis.
My strategy is quite simple: buy/sell bounces from trendlines. For example take a look at EURCAD now and then here:https://steemit.com/forex/@stepanh/forex-technical-analysis-9s18
I just started doing TA on crypto, any advice?
Not sure if I should use logarithmic scale, stick to normal or combine them....

TA only works to the extent (ie saturation level) that market participants use it to generate signals

for example, in ag's everyone uses TA, so TA matters

in the stock market less people use TA, so only big TA points that a lot different people look at might matter consistently

crypto i think i much more receptive to TA

in general, and i tell this to everyone, is there are only 2 types of trades in the world:

  1. mean reverting : betting prices will move back to where they've just come from
  2. momentum: betting prices will continue to move in the direction they've been going

Great advice!

I wanted to have the simplest strategy possible so I trade only mean reverting trades.

In the past momentum trades(trendline braking - right?) doesn't work for me.

I think #2 will not work for cryptos. The volatility will break trendlines a lot.

THE MARKET CHANGES CONSTANTLY BUT WE HAVE TO HANDLE IF WE HAVE INCOME TO KNOW THE MONTOS IN THE MIDDLE AND LONG TERM

I'LL SEE YOUR CAPS AND RAISE YOU BOLD FONT

I'M IN...

Thank you for visiting my post,@marketstack

Yeah this is definitely not Tether related as we have found out after you posted this article. Great read though I like your insight.

I have a tool i created for myself which calculates a weighted tether price across major exchanges, and right now everything is copacetic as far as tether is concerned: the peg is firmly in place

How did you create that tool and can it be modified for other crypto? Please advise...

this one really is made for tether, but i have other models for different crypto

If I may ask how did you set this up? Are you just using API's from the various site?

my bad, didn't see your reply immediately...

yeah i'm grabbing data from a number of exchanges to compile the price in real time. its all done programmatically

i have thought about putting this out via a website or websocket feed before, so just curious, would you or anyone you know be interested in consuming this kind of price feed?