China's Central Bank announced early last week that they would be officially banning all ICOs.
More about it can be read here:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@jrcornel/china-bans-ico-s-is-this-good-news-or-bad-news
On the surface this sounded like pretty bad news and the markets reacted accordingly.
Bitcoin shed roughly 20% from it's all time highs of around $5,000 per coin down to where it sits now around $4,000 per coin.
The altcoin market took the news even harder with many coins (including Steem) shedding roughly 30%-40% since the news came out.
There was one section of the release that seemed to be the most damaging, the part about potentially shutting down the off-ramps from cryptocurrency to fiat.
However, things started to recover within the next couple days as the virtual coin market rallied pretty significantly off the lows.
Then, just when things were looking like they weren't going to be so bad, more news out of China is dragging down markets again.
This time it is in the form of a rumor.
The rumor is that China is also going to be shutting down all the local cryptocurrency exchanges.
This hasn't been confirmed by the Chinese Central Bank as of yet, but as the days go by, more and more sources "in the know" are saying that exchanges are indeed likely to be shut down in the very near future.
That leads me to this question...
How big of a deal is all of this?
Like I mentioned in my previous post on the topic, I think regulating the ICO market is great news for the industry. These things are sapping away investment dollars that could be going to legitimate projects.
Not saying that all ICOs are scams, but a large portion of them are and their numbers only seemed to be increasing.
However, the latest news that cryptocurrency exchanges are likely to be shut down in China is an entirely different animal as that would greatly affect Bitcoin, Ether, and many of the other legitimate cryptocurrency projects.
In order to gain some perspective I did some reading to see what others in the industry might think about all of this.
Charles Hayter, the CEO and founder of digital currency comparison website Crypto Compare had this to say regarding all the news:
"With China nothing is ever certain and a lot is left to be desired in terms of translation and interpretation. Rumors are that the Chinese are looking to ban bitcoin again and ring-fence their fiat yuan from the crytpo world. The fears of capital outflows as well as money laundering are causing the Chinese State to ratchet up the rhetoric."
Interesting, but here is the big take away...
This news out of China shouldn't affect the markets too deeply as China "isn't that important."
What did he mean by that statement?
Well, currently China accounts for less than 20% of the world's cryptocurrency volumes. So, yes they are large, but they are by no means the entire market.
Japan, the US, and Korea are more than enough to handle and sustain healthy Bitcoin/cryptocurrency volumes were China to completely go away.
Which, even worst case scenario, China isn't going to completely go away. It looks like even if the current exchanges are to be shut down, the OTC Bitcoin market will remain open.
Which means there will still be money from China going into Bitcoin.
For the time being this latest news means uncertainty in China but for the rest of the world, it is business as usual.
What do you guys think, how big is this news out of China?
Is this the beginning of other countries stepping in and banning exchanges as well?
Will this affect Steem and Steemit?
Let me know in the comments section below.
Stay informed my friends.
Sources:
Image Sources:
https://www.equities.com/news/is-china-preparing-it-s-own-bitcoin-alternative
https://www.readhouse.net/articles/165201366/
Follow me: @jrcornel
Great article, as always, thanks a bunch for it all!
I guess this situation arising underlines once more the importance of BitShares as a fully decentralized exchange! This might bring more and more interested minds and investors into that realm, we would all gain from such a move...
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If they indeed end up banning exchanges trading will just move to the black market like everything else that's "banned" in China. It will give a boost to decentralized exchanges such as Bitsquare, Bitshares and OpenLedger. The genie is out of the bottle, governments should concentrate on beating their opponents at this race rather than creating obstacles that can only leave themselves behind
There is also a lot going in the Ethereum space. 0x, Oasisdex.com and Etherdelta.io are innovative projects with a lot of potential.
To me it doesn't look like this is going to be a permanent thing honestly.
Today I came across a great article that goes into detail about NEO's parent company OnChain and what they have been doing under the radar. As you probably know, NEO was hit hard because of the ICO ban, seeing as many people saw value in it because it was an ICO platform.
After reading the article, and seeing how many things are going on under the radar, I am strengthened in my belief that not only will this China FUD be temporary, but NEO is very likely to come out on top from all of this. OnChain is developing a blockchain for a Chinese province government as we speak according to the article. If that doesn't say something.. Seriously, go have a look. It may be NEO and OnChain specific but it does put things into a certain perspective. I would say there are good odds that NEO is going to end up being one of the few authorized ICO platforms, perhaps even getting exclusive rights, as is not uncommon in China. So I definitely think there is a good chance this situation is only temporary.
I wrote a little about it and linked it in my post here
I was wondering why Steem crept back down so quick, we were just getting comfy back above $1.50... :-(
Thanks so much for sharing the fact that China is only 20% of the total crypto market. To be honest, I thought it was more and found the idea of the Chinese exchanges shutting down to be terrifying.
In the end, as long as the long-term vision remains true and viable, I can feel comfortable despite the short term dips.
Yeah bitcoin is currently dominating the whole market in USD.
Yes it is a huge blow for the short term, if true. Even the Wallstreet Journal is reporting the closure of the exchanges. Even though we have seen no formal comms yet. Anyway look at it on the bright side: This is even more airtime for cryptos if the news is true. And with regards to Chinese trading: fewer pumps and dumps now ;)
Didnt expect this to happen though, with huge exchanges and mining farms, China was at the top of the list for cryptos. Now it would certainly loose this position to countries like south Korea and Japan.
As usual, enjoyed your article, cheers.
Its all about Communist party control. China has opened up a lot but the government is still run by the Communist party with it's ideals of control. Just like banning Google or Facebook, the Communist party sees crypto as a threat to their rule so they are trying to block it. Yes, there are a lot of bad ICOs out there but the market will work it out as people become more educated. I feel that the Chinese government is seizing the opportunity now with all the ICO issues to take a hard line on Bitcoin and other established cryptos just to build a firewall around the Yuan. The Yuan is already a government pegged currency just like the Rubbel was during the Soviet era. The Yuan is much more susceptible to being undermined by Bitcoin than the US dollar which is recognized and accepted all over the world and trades freely against other currencies. Albeit the fed controls the money supply and interest rates so they do exert a lot of control but they can't just peg a price like the Communist party. I don't see China letting up on this anytime soon. Perhaps they are secretly working on their own Communist backed crypto currency and they are stalling for time to prepare. Just a thought!
I've been saying the crypto world should turn its back on China before China has the chance to screw up crypto currency for awhile now. Their business culture fosters copy-cats, corruption and state control. They prefer saftey over risk and overall lack innovation. We should welcome India, Russia and Brazil with open arms. China is a lemming parade.
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Completely agree. I've just been enjoying the sale.
good post
Even if it occurs, this sanction will not stop BTC.
Great article. In my opinion this is great for the long-term prospects of the crypto industry. We should all be thankful as this will help the market correct and create a more stable and credible valuation from which to grow from. Any new market/industry must go through its respective growing pains. This isn't the first and surely won't be the last. Plus, most things that China "bans" go on to be wildly successful.
China ban ICO and maybe ban exchange looks bad, but this is proof cryptocurrency have big power and amazing potential.
Decentralized services such as exchange will be more popular and government will have harder time to stop cryptocurrency trend.
Good evening jrcornel, I have red most of the comments and I feel that China's action will allow ICO to do very well if they are outside of china that said it will let those people look at what they have to offer in there white paper and can they really deliver. A few comment has stated that China only has 20% in the market and that is so why has the news sent shock wave through the market. I think it is just a very strong correction so the leg up will be just as strong.
Cryptocurrency is big debate in all contry
In the wake of perusing the article, and perceiving what number of things are going ahead under the radar, I may fortified in my conviction that will this China FUD be transitory, as well as NEO is probably going to prove to be the best from the greater part of this. OnChain is building up a blockchain for a Chinese territory government as we talk as indicated by the article.
Great and informative post..i agree with you regulation
One of the Steemit authors posted today that it was a fake new. Here is the post link: Cryptocurrencies Market Overview - September 11, 2017.
Because the second leg of this problem has stayed as a rumor, I'm drawing the conclusion that this was just market manipulation. In my opinion in a week or two we would be at the same level we were at when last month started.
Your post is always worth reading. Thanks for the great suggestions you have given.
Great source of info friend. Thanks for taking the time to share it with the community. Honestly the new crypto and coins that are coming out are gaining a lot of power, its quite normal for things like this to happen. Banks are afraid of the power that crypto holds :3
Great article. But if many chinese investors takes the money from their country to another countries,, it will be not so good.
Well, we pland open ICO for our massenger TLind and these news are really disturbing!
Thanks for sharing, if the Chinese wont have the ICO, but buy the crypto later, it is fine for all of us as well. At least we have a change to have some early coins from the ICO :-)
there was similar news back in 2013 about china banning bitcoin and it drove btc price down to its lowest at that time but btç recovered,look where it is now, this won't be different.
Great post ,informative and interesting...china bann and buy back at low price..always wise to hodl...thanks for sharing
Very interesting for sure... I feel that moves like this by China can sometimes actually help as it is creating exposure to bitcoin and crypticurrencies by bringing it to the forefront of the national news, which allows other people to look into these things, research them, and get their own facts/opinions.
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Well seem like China reacted instead of action. It is the fear of new speaking I guess. Indeed most of ICOs are not so viable, but I still believe that they are a few with real potential.
Totally agree with you my friend...great analysis...it's just another opportunity for the whales and hedge funds to buy coins cheap..dollar cost average brother..I'm still buying even if BC goes to $2000...this technology is just starting and once the Futures markets in the US launch crypto currencies and the average Fidelity and TDAmeritrade investors are allowed in, watch out
I found it interesting that you mentioned that China is only roughly 20% of the crypto market which is very comforting and probably why Bitcoin hasn't lost more of its value to be honest. Regarding the price of Steem I think, like all cryptos (each to their own relative extent) they will follow Bitcoin's price and hence the drop in the steem price. In my opinion Bitcoin will remain around the $4200 area for a little while and possibly drop to $3800 and then find support at $4000. Hopefully after all of that it will then return to its winning ways. Only the market knows though!
China is really performing a service to investors. By shaking out potential fraudsters and questionable ICOs they are creating a better and more credible environment for the entire crypto market. The follow up news is that once they get a process in place they will open their market back up to ICO's so all is not lost. The market will bound back from this.
My take on this is to see from the angle of China, would it benefit them? seems yes: http://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@cryptoescobar/china-ban-on-crypto-exchanges-actually-makes-sense
China wants to dominate in all aspects.
Chinese being Chinese.
Ya I hear China is only 20% percent of trading. We are going be okay
We've got to love news like that from China as we now know the game @jrcornel
that China plays in order to get cheap coins.
Let's take bad news as good news too.
Really appreciated this article as I'm new in the game. Even though being new to the game, I had my suspiciouns about China's pullout. I do however believe that cryptocurrencies are here to stay and will eventually take over as we move further into the future, but just as #steemit has now brought social media to ver 2.0, something is going to happen in the cryptocurrency world that will change it to ver 2.0 in the near future. when that happens there most likely will be some losses and gains. In the mean time make a profit where you can is what I say..Still haven't as I invested my first measly $46 I could get online before the crashes so..... donations are welcome hahaha. have a good one.
Great post ... Good to see increase of BTC/USD . Can anyone tell me when it will reach $5000 . I recently invested $100 in BTC .
I will say that it is a good move there are many fraud crowdfunding firms which raise money now since ICO at present is totally unregulated and if the money is raised via cryptocurrency. It can devalue the coin if it turns out to be fraud
Thx for that nice summary of the actual events!
I think we are ALL forgetting that China has PREVIOUSLY banned Bitcoins.
First they banned the bank accounts of exchanges.
Then they restricted capital outflows out of China from exchange accounts.
Then they enabled fees on trading within Chinese exchange (previously there were no fees and trading in Bitcoin on exchange websites was done for free)
Here is a graph to illustrate EXACTLY how many times the Chinese Government has stepped in to try and control the growth of cryptocurrency.
Note that the Chinese have done this so as to 'strengthen' their own national currency. This is VERY INTERESTING as Bitcoin is now seen as a THREAT to a country's currency.
Refer to the below for a correlation between the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and the price of Bitcoin
(
Even Venezuela is seeing a STRONG demand in Bitcoin due to the systemic weakening of their own country's currency.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-15/venezuelans-are-seeking-a-haven-in-crypto-coins-as-crisis-rages
I think mostly false alarms. If you consider it normally, you can close such a market, there is no prohibition. I think that ICO will survive in the form led by the government.
Hey jrcornel, thanks for article. It's a major question you're asking while bringing several sub-questions on the table. Problem is sometimes rumours build in and create "snowballs" of "truth" as it reaches us. That's why it's super important to have our facts straight and do our research before panicking or posting Armageddon style news
The Chinese probably want to launch their own cryptocurrency and dominate the market.
Ah, for once some level-headed discussion on the subject. There is evidence that China has been discreetly making moves to limit local Bitcoin exchanges because of KYC concerns - and this hasn't been the first time we've seen signs of this. To date, no national BTC exchanges appear to be impacted by Chinese policies. And from what I understand anyway, most Chinese participants in the BTC ecosystem do so for gambling-related activities which are likely to be minimally impacted by any formal blanket ban.
Feel free to follow my own feed if you take any kind of interest in ICOs, btw....Thanks.
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loved this article...
let see what the future hold for us. i say BTC will rise again to a new high marker.
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