While I think the "gold bugs" like Peter Schiff present a compelling argument to profit one would probably have to buy and hold gold long enough for the current fiat system to collapse or at the very least suffer a major black swan event. So I agree with you that for the ordinary joe it is better to be "wrong" and in profit than "right" and financially under water. Identifying trends and thinking in terms of probabilities is the single biggest challenge for any investor/trader.