A combination of both. But I think the bubble is caused by over regulation, combined with immature markets.
If you were an early Ethereum holder who bought in during the crowdsale, and now you have 5000 ETH, what would you do with it? Suppose you bought in 12 months ago, what would you do with it then? In the first case you can possibly cash out the 5000 ETH and get capital gains tax rates but in the second cash you could be paying income tax rates of 40%. So just the tax situation DISCOURAGES people from spending their ETH any more than is necessary for survival. This basically locks it up with no way out for large holders. Thank the IRS.
And this locking up of wealth inside the system will make the ICO really the only thing you can do with ETH at this time. You cannot live off ETH, if you cash out you get a penalty, if you just sit and hold ETH you risk the price going down and not having the wealth because it's volatile and because it's inflating.
Solutions could be having assets which pay dividends like Peerplays. When you have more variety of assets then maybe people wont rush to crowdsales. Also a stable token such as the Ethereum dollar will allow people with ETH wealth to store their wealth safely which will reduce the desire to keep putting it into ICOs. But when it's all volatile then the ICO is not necessarily going to look as risky as it would look if you could get 8% or 10% interest just from the Steem Dollar for instance.
Three solutions we should push for as it's in everyone's interest:
Lower taxes or tax exemption for crypto assets
Push for creation of stable tokens which provide interest or dividends
Push for smart contracts which seek revenue and profit and which pay out
In the absence of stability, productive assets, and with excessive penalties for spending, is it really a shock that people don't really want to do anything but put it into ICOs? Especially people who got it by mining or by the Ethereum ICO? If you got a million dollars from an ICO you might be tempted to put some portion of that into another ICO.
It could be both - I hope I am wrong though. The thing is a bubble will delay things but it will not kill the idea of crypto/blockchain. The current fiat money and banking system is broken and that is not going to change.
A combination of both. But I think the bubble is caused by over regulation, combined with immature markets.
If you were an early Ethereum holder who bought in during the crowdsale, and now you have 5000 ETH, what would you do with it? Suppose you bought in 12 months ago, what would you do with it then? In the first case you can possibly cash out the 5000 ETH and get capital gains tax rates but in the second cash you could be paying income tax rates of 40%. So just the tax situation DISCOURAGES people from spending their ETH any more than is necessary for survival. This basically locks it up with no way out for large holders. Thank the IRS.
And this locking up of wealth inside the system will make the ICO really the only thing you can do with ETH at this time. You cannot live off ETH, if you cash out you get a penalty, if you just sit and hold ETH you risk the price going down and not having the wealth because it's volatile and because it's inflating.
Solutions could be having assets which pay dividends like Peerplays. When you have more variety of assets then maybe people wont rush to crowdsales. Also a stable token such as the Ethereum dollar will allow people with ETH wealth to store their wealth safely which will reduce the desire to keep putting it into ICOs. But when it's all volatile then the ICO is not necessarily going to look as risky as it would look if you could get 8% or 10% interest just from the Steem Dollar for instance.
Three solutions we should push for as it's in everyone's interest:
In the absence of stability, productive assets, and with excessive penalties for spending, is it really a shock that people don't really want to do anything but put it into ICOs? Especially people who got it by mining or by the Ethereum ICO? If you got a million dollars from an ICO you might be tempted to put some portion of that into another ICO.
It could be both - I hope I am wrong though. The thing is a bubble will delay things but it will not kill the idea of crypto/blockchain. The current fiat money and banking system is broken and that is not going to change.
Yes, I agree. Could be both.