Nice level headed take as usual.
This is slightly off topic (at least, from a timing perspective) but do you see Bitcoin eventually losing its market position as the premier crypto? I don't think this downtrend is that moment but it's something I worry about. Bitcoin still has some significant advantages (hash rate leading to network security, fully tested cryptography, good dev environment, fiat on-ramps, de facto trading pair for alt coins, institutional focus, eventual ETF) so I'm not discounting it at this point. But it seems to me, none of these are impossible to overcome for ETH or any other 'alt'. ETH already has seen an explosion in fiat on-ramps and non-fiat, non-BTC trading volume in the last few months - what compels people to keep using BTC as a trading currency? Especially since moving it between exchanges is now completely impractical. Personally I think that if Bitcoin can't solve its transaction issues it will slowly be replaced by something else, whether that be ETH (my bet) or something else. Once an ETF for Bitcoin is released, and regulators are forced to admit the world hasn't catastrophically ended, what stops an Ethereum ETF from being created? Not much... so in the end, my question is: is institutional interest (and the money that comes with that interest) enough to keep Bitcoin at this level on the long-term? And what tends to shift institutional interest over time?
Would love to read your, or anybody else's thoughts on this.
very good observations. Bitcoin cannot maintain the top position for many reasons including your accurate analysis. bitcoin took the bull by the horns and went very high very fast. The truth of the matter is there is no real reason for this. The fomo effect is short and sweet, unless there is a real vision for bitcoin to become a useful network (as was intended) then its just another altcoin and sadly it doesn't work and, it is way overpriced, making it very unlikely to find new investment in the short term.
I don't, no. Given that most normal people associate Bitcoin with being cryptocurrency, if it fails to stay on top I suspect that will not set a good image to a lot of people. However, given how low float is for many cryptocurrencies, I do not see it as impossible to overtake Bitcoin on CoinMarketCap, but have my doubts they will overtake in real capital, time, and people invested.
Ethereum has way more security concerns than Bitcoin because it has much more sophisticated scripting for smart contracts - always remember that the more complex you make something, the more possibility of vulnerabilities (a reality we have faced with Ethereum over and over again). You can't fix that - it's a law of nature. It doesn't make Bitcoin superior, it just means Bitcoin is dumber and you literally CAN'T screw it up in the same ways you could Ethereum.
It's too soon to say what will happen in the long-term, but always remember that the most time has been invested in Bitcoin which can't be replaced with money. A lot of altcoins are just Bitcoin's codebase with a few tweaks made. Whether or not sidechains can be securely and practically implemented will be a key question going into the future. As we speak, just seeing Segwit and batching become adopted will clear up the bottlenecks we have in BItcoin now.
This isn't to say there isn't potential in other cryptocurrencies, but rather that it is not as simple as it seems (e.g: Bitcoin is expensive and slow, therefore should be replaced as it is impractical).
absolutely
What is up with those ridiculous amount you are getting papotus?
18.50$ for 1 vote.. 2.50$ for "Absolutely" hehe erm wut?
Nice comment and rationale behind your ideas.
I too have my doubts about the "Bitcoin is the gold standard of cryptocurrencies" argument... While Bitcoin and gold both have a finite amount in existence, what makes gold different and in my opinion more valuable in the sense of scarcity, is that it can't be recreated (i.e. Bitcoin hard forks or other alts that use the same underlying code with added benefits or improvements). Gold is valuable because there is a limited supply— yes—but it is also valuable because the elements that comprise it are rare in the universe and is incredibly hard to create due to the extreme energy-intensive process. If you create something with the same chemical characteristics as gold you aren't making something different, you are making gold... that is why it cannot be replaced and deserves its status as a backing of fiat currencies.
While I have no idea if Bitcoin is going to $1,000,000 or $1,000 in the future, in my opinion, it won't be the gold standard forever. At the end of the day, it's technology and tech always improves, while precious metals do not.
"Bitcoin is a store of value". An excuse which holds no value.
here here
I do some digital marketing on the side and understand the importance of brand. I tell people I invest in crypto and they are like what is that. I say bitcoin and the lightbulb moment happens. For better or worse bitcoin is the household name. But I agree with all your points. I buy eth to move between exchanges and for buy and hold. There are so many erc20 tokens that validate the existence of eth. I personally think we will have niches. I am very interested in projects like Polymath looking to bring securities easily onto the blockchain. Getting into an either or debate is like asking if Google or Amazon is more powerful.
I'm with you here. I've been thinking about this for a little while now, and it makes sense if ETH overtakes bitcoin at some point. There's too many negatives about bitcoin and Ethereum itself makes it like a little internet is being built with it.
What good can bitcoin really do now? The transaction fees are crazy (although they are around $1 right now), it's losing vendors and adoption is down, and the transaction speeds are too slow. But at the same time, I get the sense that bitcoin could shoot up out of nowhere at some point. And it's not like Bitcoin can't change either.
One big successful update to the Bitcoin blockchain could change everything. If it could lower the transaction fees way down, bring the speed way up, and get the adoption to increase, then there's no saying where the price of bitcoin could end up. It already has the awareness and the name.
For now the market as a whole seems like a big waiting game.