Bitcoin is down yet again - it's the January blues. As always, the same question is on everyone's mind: Opportunity or trap? To which I say, I have no idea! But given that volume seems to have been declining while Bitcoin has been rising and vice versa these past few weeks, this suggests that upward momentum has been relatively weak and downward momentum is stronger. This is a valid concern.
More importantly, given I allocated what I wanted to allocate at this level last week, I won't be purchasing any Bitcoin. I remain firm on the level mentioned previously at $8,300, but otherwise will not be buying in to any further dips or corrections. I also won't be buying to upside unless there is a significant sign that suggests more bullish activity (e.g: high volume to upside).
I spend a decent amount of time in this video discussing "hot" cryptocurrencies, currently Vechain but the idea really appeals to all of them. Perception is so far detached from reality now with Vechain (but again, could be applied to any other "hot" cryptocurrency) that it has become exceptionally risky.
Tacking blockchain onto RFID doesn't suddenly remove all the inherent issues that RFID has had for (wait for it) decades now. Just like Raiblocks has corrected nearly 50% since I talked about it being the "flavor of the week," I would be cautious investing at highs for Vechain.
I also wanted to point out that a lot of cryptocurrencies are taking older technologies and tacking blockchain on it to capitalize on this craze. That isn't to say these are scams, which some people seem to unfortunately mistake my comments as insinuating. Rather it is to point out that blockchain is not an end all, be-all solution. Note that "reducing counterfeits" was a key argument for RFID 20 years ago and look where it is today in that specific use case.
The point of my little "rant" in this video is that while it may seem that cryptocurrencies are brand new, there is really only a few new elements and a TON of modifications from there. Understanding the base technologies which are decades old will help you separate the substance from the fluff. And trust me, there is a LOT of fluff.
Moving back to markets, as for altcoins, I am really only looking at a few that I like which are still a little too high for me to want to buy more (e.g: Monero and Steem). In short, I'm buying nothing in this dip currently - you don't always have to if you feel comfortable with your allocation.
What are your thoughts on the market and irrationality? Let me know in the comments below, thank you.
When BTC peaked at $20K+, I was confident that it would correct, but I thought it would settle at around $15KUSD. I'm still feeling surprised that it's fluctuating between 10-13K. I will be even more surprised if it reaches the $8.3K mark. That $10K line is a strong psychological barrier, IMO. But then again....
The 10k line was sliced through in the last 2 pullbacks and didn't seem to be much resistance. Today, however, it seemed to hold.
When BTC was on the way up from $15K up to $20K, the move was too parabolic. This is a much healthier market and institutional market will be moving in.
institutional money is very cautious, if they do move in, why would they move into BTC?
the idea of institutional money moving in when there is so much uncertainty about the future of bitcoin and weather a coin that was created to be money will ever get the kind of backing that was once imagined, is no longer so promising imho.
$10k seems like it should be a strong psychological barrier, but it certainly wasn't on the way up. BTC blew through $10k on the way up, so it certainly could do the same on the way down.
Don't be too surprised by anything Bitcoin does and you'll be fine. I wake up every morning expecting it to either be up or down 20%.
That's right. recently I am surprised to see it maintain let alone go up! it seems that there are less and less reasons to invest in bitcoin and more and more reasons to explore other coins recently, although I strongly believe in bitcoin's ability to fix all its current problems, it seems that the developers or those calling the shots among them have a different idea and direction which is becoming very suspicious.
Like @lordprime said "This is a much healthier market", and I agree with that. The price of BTC is currently sitting at 10,884.60 USD (-0.03% change). The rampage momentum has dried up for the moment, but I'm willing to bet that it will greencandle up to $23K+ in 2018. I feel safe making that claim. Absolutely no facts or evidence to back up that claim, just a gut feeling that the momentum will boil up again this year. 2018 will be a rollercoaster... @cryptovestor, I dig your work. Keep it up.
I think we might see $8K pretty soon with this market conditions and news spreading FUD non stop just to get that clicks.
Besides the support on $10K level has been tested for multiple times now.
i agree 100%
Absolutely true. I am personally waiting for the price of bitcoin to drop to 8-7k USD before buying a couple of coins and enjoying the volatility and observing the market trying to pass the 10-11k$ support over and over again. We will wait and see what the next month brings around. Fingers crossed 🤞🏽
Very interesting analysis on VeChain. I didn't know too much about it, but again I loved your analysis and your bluntness as well. I've been watching since October now, and I always love the video.
The big question is when is this all going to go up, or at least when will the market stabilize again? We had another dip today, but it seems like there's less energy in cryptocurrencies right now. Maybe it is that January Blues. I get the feeling like a lot of people are waiting for something to trigger the market to go up, but that might take a while.
My guess, based on not that much, but a hunch and watching everything going on, we'll be stabilized by the end of the month and slowly going up overall.
wait till someone analyses VChain. its another one with only V Chain. not out yet though...
There likely needs to be a catalyst of some sort to push it forward rather than just going up out of nowhere like it does frequently.
Cryptovestor, what do you think are the odds that the Robinhood crypto rollout serves as the catalyst? There are 896K people signed up currently. I am betting that the smart money sees this and that is why BTC is on its way up again. $11,499 at coinbase/gdax, $11,615.96 at Gemini, $11,898 Poloniex.
Nice level headed take as usual.
This is slightly off topic (at least, from a timing perspective) but do you see Bitcoin eventually losing its market position as the premier crypto? I don't think this downtrend is that moment but it's something I worry about. Bitcoin still has some significant advantages (hash rate leading to network security, fully tested cryptography, good dev environment, fiat on-ramps, de facto trading pair for alt coins, institutional focus, eventual ETF) so I'm not discounting it at this point. But it seems to me, none of these are impossible to overcome for ETH or any other 'alt'. ETH already has seen an explosion in fiat on-ramps and non-fiat, non-BTC trading volume in the last few months - what compels people to keep using BTC as a trading currency? Especially since moving it between exchanges is now completely impractical. Personally I think that if Bitcoin can't solve its transaction issues it will slowly be replaced by something else, whether that be ETH (my bet) or something else. Once an ETF for Bitcoin is released, and regulators are forced to admit the world hasn't catastrophically ended, what stops an Ethereum ETF from being created? Not much... so in the end, my question is: is institutional interest (and the money that comes with that interest) enough to keep Bitcoin at this level on the long-term? And what tends to shift institutional interest over time?
Would love to read your, or anybody else's thoughts on this.
very good observations. Bitcoin cannot maintain the top position for many reasons including your accurate analysis. bitcoin took the bull by the horns and went very high very fast. The truth of the matter is there is no real reason for this. The fomo effect is short and sweet, unless there is a real vision for bitcoin to become a useful network (as was intended) then its just another altcoin and sadly it doesn't work and, it is way overpriced, making it very unlikely to find new investment in the short term.
I don't, no. Given that most normal people associate Bitcoin with being cryptocurrency, if it fails to stay on top I suspect that will not set a good image to a lot of people. However, given how low float is for many cryptocurrencies, I do not see it as impossible to overtake Bitcoin on CoinMarketCap, but have my doubts they will overtake in real capital, time, and people invested.
Ethereum has way more security concerns than Bitcoin because it has much more sophisticated scripting for smart contracts - always remember that the more complex you make something, the more possibility of vulnerabilities (a reality we have faced with Ethereum over and over again). You can't fix that - it's a law of nature. It doesn't make Bitcoin superior, it just means Bitcoin is dumber and you literally CAN'T screw it up in the same ways you could Ethereum.
It's too soon to say what will happen in the long-term, but always remember that the most time has been invested in Bitcoin which can't be replaced with money. A lot of altcoins are just Bitcoin's codebase with a few tweaks made. Whether or not sidechains can be securely and practically implemented will be a key question going into the future. As we speak, just seeing Segwit and batching become adopted will clear up the bottlenecks we have in BItcoin now.
This isn't to say there isn't potential in other cryptocurrencies, but rather that it is not as simple as it seems (e.g: Bitcoin is expensive and slow, therefore should be replaced as it is impractical).
absolutely
What is up with those ridiculous amount you are getting papotus?
18.50$ for 1 vote.. 2.50$ for "Absolutely" hehe erm wut?
Nice comment and rationale behind your ideas.
I too have my doubts about the "Bitcoin is the gold standard of cryptocurrencies" argument... While Bitcoin and gold both have a finite amount in existence, what makes gold different and in my opinion more valuable in the sense of scarcity, is that it can't be recreated (i.e. Bitcoin hard forks or other alts that use the same underlying code with added benefits or improvements). Gold is valuable because there is a limited supply— yes—but it is also valuable because the elements that comprise it are rare in the universe and is incredibly hard to create due to the extreme energy-intensive process. If you create something with the same chemical characteristics as gold you aren't making something different, you are making gold... that is why it cannot be replaced and deserves its status as a backing of fiat currencies.
While I have no idea if Bitcoin is going to $1,000,000 or $1,000 in the future, in my opinion, it won't be the gold standard forever. At the end of the day, it's technology and tech always improves, while precious metals do not.
"Bitcoin is a store of value". An excuse which holds no value.
here here
I do some digital marketing on the side and understand the importance of brand. I tell people I invest in crypto and they are like what is that. I say bitcoin and the lightbulb moment happens. For better or worse bitcoin is the household name. But I agree with all your points. I buy eth to move between exchanges and for buy and hold. There are so many erc20 tokens that validate the existence of eth. I personally think we will have niches. I am very interested in projects like Polymath looking to bring securities easily onto the blockchain. Getting into an either or debate is like asking if Google or Amazon is more powerful.
I'm with you here. I've been thinking about this for a little while now, and it makes sense if ETH overtakes bitcoin at some point. There's too many negatives about bitcoin and Ethereum itself makes it like a little internet is being built with it.
What good can bitcoin really do now? The transaction fees are crazy (although they are around $1 right now), it's losing vendors and adoption is down, and the transaction speeds are too slow. But at the same time, I get the sense that bitcoin could shoot up out of nowhere at some point. And it's not like Bitcoin can't change either.
One big successful update to the Bitcoin blockchain could change everything. If it could lower the transaction fees way down, bring the speed way up, and get the adoption to increase, then there's no saying where the price of bitcoin could end up. It already has the awareness and the name.
For now the market as a whole seems like a big waiting game.
Hey Cryptovestor. I have a few points, that you didnt explain deeper and I'd like to hear your opinions.
1 - Don't you think that it's kinda reasonable btc's dominance moving down? Market is getting bigger, there are things faster/cheaper than Btc and market (at least some part) already realise that? So it means BTC have to lose it in long term. But I'm not saying btc will die. I'm just an investor and I focus on making money, it's nothing personal.
2 - You kinda answered it with two magical words MASS ADOPTION, and I'm curious why you are still that bullish, once we have things like VEN / ETH / Waves etc. that you already can use for something? Isn't it just an old dogma, that BTC has to be >50?% . I'm also oldschooler, when i came to cryptos in 2013, i bought 8 things and i literally had whole market. So btc #1 , yes i agree, but i'd find an argument that it will slow down, and new projects w reasonable use will take their own (big) parts. Whole my point is basically that we expect cryptos will have some real life USE , but there's lack of it for btc
3 - For what exactly we will need BTC if :
a - you can buy alts w fiat (waves dex, vertbase etc. in the future)
b- you can buy alts w eth / ltc / neo / something random big directly
c- you can SWITCH alts cuz token swaps/atomic swaps etc. ?
d- you can store value/trading capital in something more "boring" and less volatile... I'd say LTC/XRP but it had also crazy action lately, but you get the point
4 - Why exactly you hated mindset w this logic
I have 20 000$, what makes bigger gains?
a) I have alt w reasonable tech, hype, events and it has mcap 100mil, so i think it will double at least
b) I have btc, what's chance to double on 20k$
You said it's bad mindset, maybe im kinda overthinking that, but once im not a new, buying some stupid thing w lambo/moon hype and have some kinda of attitude ( check events, that thing itself, s/r lvl, cap, supply,team behind, is it PnD or not, is it real use/concept, enough hype, grups shilling it etc) ... Why it's just that bad , when i says yes, i think this think will make more than 2x cuz this and that, vs btc (on 20k for example) that needs 2x capital incoming (rougly obv) ..
Thanks for your time and thanks for everything you've helped me it, in your videos.
very good questions and observations, thank you
Nice vid. I agree...gonna have to wait it out with BTC. Doesn't seem like anyone is too sure which direction it's headed. As for VeChain...I like the concept and missed the boat, but there is no way I'm getting in at these prices. It hasn't had a major correction yet. People are way too optimistic on it.
I agree with your thoughts on VEN. I bit into the Raiblocks hype and I bought some at 25 dollars, and now I'm almost 50% down on that investment. Clearly you were right - it wasn't ready for primetime, and a lot of issues came up with it's integration with exchanges that it became clear it was super overvalued.
I think VEN is a promising project, but like all altcoins, as long as it sees barely any usage and all we hear is "partnerships" (I hate that word) then to me it's a shitcoin.
The thing that would have saved you this January is if you moved all of your money into ETH, which has been on an incredible bullrun in January and has very impressively sustained itself around 1000USD. I think ETH is by far the safest investment at the moment, but that could change at any time - we've seen it drop more than 50% before, and I suspect that kind of correction is coming up.
This kind of movement proves a point you've made many times in your video that altcoins are becoming more and more like crummy penny stocks while things that are actually being used (e.g Bitcoin, Ether, Monero, etc.) are the "safe" places to be in corrections like this.
Personally since most of my altcoins are currently at a loss, swapping them out for Ether is not a good move. I just have to hold and wait, unfortunately.
The key is to buy alt coins at a boring time. I bought VeChain a while back. I profited off Tron despite how dreadful a project it is because I bought at four cents. I never even bothered researching Raiblocks because I clearly heard about it too late.
Flight to safety when the market isn't behaving well is never too bad an idea (ironically there is no safe place in crypto, only safer).
that's right
My take is that Bitcoin is in an extended correction, we all know there's constant FUD as we're not the only ones who are wishing for a low entry... there's institutions, and they are really working on it, with new bad news every day. Quite successfully, there's not much trust right now...
Also, there's the TA and Bitcoin is in a triangle, a big one that stretches from December to March, and my guess is that there wont be a major breakout before February 10th. So, relax...
Most TAs are constantly correcting their counts and expect changes from day to day but lets be honest :
We all want lower rates and we'll only be satisfied if the bear market lasts for awhile.
It just wasn't low enough yet, and once it's over we can look forward way more confidently.
If anyone thinks this is the end of the crypto market, I can only say DON'T BE ABSURD. This will be a great year, it just has a late start.
Hi,
Not sure on what you based your horizontal support line here ? It just seems to me that, pre-january 15th, you could as well have decided to draw it on the 11000 line... I myself am kinda holding to the hope that we don't go too close to (or past down) the 8000 (as this is close to my average entry level) and that we'll see a consolidation, but I'm actually wondering if I wouldn't be better off taking the small profits I still can make, pull back a little and wait for a clear market direction.
I'm also quite tempted to compare the actual situation with an oddly similar price action we met in the past :
Euphoria, parabolic rally, double top, severe correction, 'back on track', even more severe 'correction', nice rally (without volume) and then...
Besides the fact that the support line there seems way more solid, imo, with at least 3 to 4 contact points,
at that time the pullback we saw reached 69% down from the top. In today's price, a similar pullback would put us way below the 8000, around 6000k.
Afterwards, that 2014 'compression' ended on a nice +60% rally... before a downtrend that took 2 years to reverse (and passed trough an 86% down from the ATH - today that would mean something like 2600k).
I totally agree on the not-the-end-of-the-crypto-market part, and I also realize the market is not in the same state it was back in 2014, but still I don't think the possibility of a long term bullmarket ahead can be so easily wiped off. What's your take on it ?
PS : I don't know how this will be read so I feel more comfortable clarifying : I'm not trying to antagonize you, here ; I'm trying to have a discussion and would like to have your opinion - amongst others.
Thanks for reading.
I see the triangle as symbolic, only the upper line is important here - I wanted to show people that Bitcoin is in a triangle, or that it can be seen that way - because most don't so far.
If you want a line that touches some more wicks and candles, take the dotted one... the yello just being a horizontal that more or less touches an earlier resistance level and the point where BTC (and most coins with it) bounced at the new low.
It was a decisive bounce. I know because I had been pressing thumbs that it would fall lower, and it didn't happen. Real support lines if you're wary of an imminent further dip, are way lower.
But I haven't looked for them here, I don't fear the dip, I've been waiting for it as long as Mike Novogratz ;)
The blue and green lines are coming from lows in July and November, each touches another low on its way and this is simply where they all meet or get close to meeting, which may or may not be significant, I see them as possible trend lines - I've watched too many tries to determine a trend on a shorter term these last weeks and I think their angles were all aiming way too high.
I've also compared earlier years and I'm aware of the similarities - we should understand that it' s us who are making the market, if we decide that it will be a three year bear market, then exactly that will happen. Posting on steemit will not influence much, but the people who take turns in telling us that "bitcoin may dip to $1000" or "governments will eventually ban cryptos" or "crypto is a bubble, and the bubble is popping" have much greater power but if they're doing this to get a better entry level, then that makes me rather more confident than less.
Because it means that they do NOT want a prolonged bear market at all from a certain point in time onwards.
Apart from that, FUD will only last so long, it didn't have a lot of influence last year and buyer confidence can make it all useless.
All we need is some success, and my guess is we'll see hat in altcoins first, Ripple is breaking out as we speak. It's now testing the upper triangle border for the seventh time within 90 minutes, at $1.35 - just saying. Looks like a must-buy, it can hardly fall much lower than 1.28 and the breakout is a must soon. Ripple often looks good when BTC doesn't but there's no way to be sure., so maybe it will fall to 0.90
I'm mostly interested in Bitcoin as a moodo-meter for the entire market, and though we have a better situation financially/market cap with institutions coming on, BTC has been under direct attack from the BCH miner faction and other parties, and if they get us to seeing this situation like the one in 2014, a wet dream will come true for them.
Curves or no curves, Elliott or Gann, the real game is marketing. Let's do our thing.
For most, that means screaming "market withdrawal!" on youtube or here once a few rates come down, or critique-less hype of an exocoin. The market of the many is not always a good market as it's entirely dominated by senseless herd animal stampedes.
Should be interesting to see if this plays out jojo, thanks for commenting as always.
Hi Crypto Investor, totally unrelated to today's topic, but are you familiar with Cindicator? I'm curious if you have any thoughts on it. Here are mine if anyone is interested...
It seems like Cindicator is offering a decentralized prediction market service very similar to Augur, except Augur has double the market cap ($950 million vs $430 million, and it looks to me like Cindicator has substantially more user activity than Augur.
Whereas Cindicator decides what questions to ask its crowdsourced "analysts", Augur allows anyone to pay Augur tokens to ask the crowd a question. These are two different use cases with different implications, but the big takeaway for me is that I think, for the near-future, Cindicator's top-down control of their questions will allow them to have a much easier time gamifying their platform and keeping users engaged, while Augur will struggle to achieve a critical mass of users.
I think Cindicator has an interesting token benefit structure as well, where you only gain access to their data if you hold a large amount of their coins. Seems like a plausible way to create a virtuous feedback loop between speculators and token holders.
While I'm unsure of how accurate Cindicator's data will be long-term, regardless, crowdsourced market prediction data of this sort seems valuable, especially if you can identify analysts with unusually high prediction accuracy. That seems to be the direction they're going with it.
Anyway, sorry for sharing something off-topic. Just wanted to put it on your radar if you haven't looked into it yet. No reply needed. Thanks for reading!
No, I haven't looked into Cindicator. How far is it into development? If it's not launched yet like Augur, there is yet another option out there which is even smaller - Gnosis. Of course, the reason why is because circulating supply is so much smaller than total supply, so Cindicator might still better.
It's probably better to have fewer questions like Cindicator seems to be doing (based on what you told me) than the scattershot approach Augur is taking where anyone can post them, given both will struggle with adoption. If you don't have a ton of users, the best you can do is concentrate them by having fewer prediction markets.
How is consensus reached on the outcome of an event? Same as Augur or differently? Anyway, maybe I'll look into it at some point. One point I want to say here is that all of these "prediction markets" are fancy gambling platforms, so can be good to look at other gam-ahem prediction markets that exist out there. Thanks for your comment.
First and foremost, I want to tell you I'm finally following your advice and I'm here, on steemit. I'm glad I've found your channel from the very first beginning of my crypto adventure and I was able to be more caucious and retained on my investments as you've always tried to see the other side of the fence.
Secondly, a lot of times these coins are being pumped by different whales or "Pump and dump" telegram groups or so. I've seen this trend going pretty stupidly spread with pumping and dumping coins, people get in there at the end of the pump and tend to lose a lot.
That's true there are a lot of duplicate coins which do not give any true value to the market and I'm really curious upon what we will be seeing in the future months, years. I want to thank you a lot for sharing your wise skepticism with us.
I had some doubts about your "visions" in the past when you were talking about ETH going 75000 satoshis right when it had a drop from 65000 to 55000 and I was already pretty nervous I've followed your advice ( after my personal research and a lot of thinking ), but you were found out to be more than right!
Although I'm still a newbie (~2 months in this world) I still learned a lot by myself and you helped me avoid a lot of mistakes that might have costed if I'd been making them my own.
One last thing I'd like to say, you should really check out Nebulas they want to build a search engine for the blockchain apps. Their main ideology is that in the future there will be a lot of blockchain applications and people won't be able to filter them. Also, Founder and co-founders are founders at Antshare(NEO). I would really appreciate your opinion upon this!
My concern with a project like that is that it assumes there will be a lot of blockchain applications that are actually useful, which has been far and few in-between. The fewer there are, the less required it is given that everyone will just know the "good" ones by name. Haven't looked at it yet though so take my opinion with a grain of salt.
Yes, well their project an idea is not projected to the "now" but to the future. Hitters XU makes some intersting comparasions in his presentation of Nebulas at Global Blockchain Summit in Shanghai from aug 2017.
He is comparing the internet 1.0 as the internet in 1997, internet 2.0 as internet in 2007 and internet 3.0 as internet in 2017 talking about the number of apps and users. He made an analogy between internet and blockchain considering Bitcoin - Blockchain 1.0, Ethereum (with the smart contracts ) - Blockchain 2.0 and Nebulas being the Blockchain 3.0 with the search engine.
Of course these comparasion might be exaggerated but I really believe in his vision.
I haven't been in crypto long so take my opinion with a grain of salt but here's a theory I have personally. I think that big jump at the end of December has never been properly explained but for sure it 100% got attention and involvement by a large amount of people who prior didn't care or acknowledge crypto at all and it was at a mass that no one really could have anticipated.
I was one of those people but I feel sad that I came in at a time that a lot of people who have no interest in the technology and are just throwing in money then leaving quickly when things get hard because I am not one of those people. I love this whole community and the power that blockchain technology crypto and platforms like steemit have given to the little man so i'm here for the long run, to the moon or even if it crashes and burns I will remain interested.
I think what's happening now is potentially we are seeing the results of mass manipulation, scaring off all the weak handed newbies (which I think actually only makes up a small percentage of the marketcap) only for this all to pick back up again sometime soon or for it to all crash dramatically slowing down the hype and attention for a long time to come with a significantly long bear market.
What separates this from the incidents of the past regarding the price action of the market, is now there is a astronomically larger amount of money involved compared to then, far, far more and I truly believe far more manipulation at a higher more dramatic level for the good and bad alike for investors and businesses involved.
I do not think now is a good time to invest personally but I do think it is a great opportunity to observe, research and learn.
My gut feeling though is that even if 'the bubble pops' I see bitcoin not going below $5,000 in absolute worst case scenario and then we will see recovery over extended period of time.
Good points, people are constantly looking right now for the next rocket to the top 10 - 20.
Something like raiblocks I could see how it would be interesting in certain aspects because it seemed to grab the attention of the people who were tired of the BTC/BCH conflict (in my opinion).
The only thing that I can really say about Vechain (because it is outside my circle of competence) is that not everything needs a blockchain, just like not everything needs to be 3Dprinted. Something like this is probably where Vechain will get some most of the attention and a few years down the line(5-10) some company will actually implement it.
On a side note, what is stopping any company from taking the code from GitHub and using it internally, and testing and implementing it without actually using whatever the original crypto was?
"Thanks for taking out all the nasty bugs, we'll take it from here!"
With something like bitcoin, I see it not working because there is the risk no one will accept the new alt, but with something like Vechain tha is not as in need of general support?
(Not that any of that will actually mean anything while the bubble is still building).
In case you haven't noticed. Tether / Bitfinex have been mass printing USDT since last week to keep the price of Bitcoin up. They printed another 100 mil today and have injected at least 500 mil recently. The market is completely manipulated at this point and tainted since you can't cash out in USDT so they are buying BTC and whatever altcoins to cash out to USD instead. The price of ALL coins at this point is artificially inflated and the news about Tether / Bitfinex has been kept quiet as well censored in some cases so everyone doesn't all cash out at once and crash everything including the exchanges. You NEED to wake up and read up on the situation. There has been no audit for a long time now despite lying that they provide on a daily basis, Tether / Bitfinex are the same people which is perfect for wash trading and USDT is NOT backed by USD. So the question you need to ask is, what happens when they become insolvent because there is no actual backing of USDT, or there is a govt crackdown or whales realize the ponzi scheme and make their exits. It won't be just about who is holding USDT (those people will get screwed the most) but ALL coins have been bought with USDT at some point and are currently NOT worth the value they have been inflated to be. Imagine I magically printed 2.5B of my FunnyMoney coin saying it's backed by USD and used that to buy Bitcoin through an exchange that I own and then moved it around or used it to buy altcoins and eventually cash out to fiat through different exchanges. Everyone's portfolio is going to tank once people realize the wash trading going on and the other exchanges are going to halt withdrawls cause they won't be able to handle the influx of everyone trying to cash out their BTC or ETH or whatever to fiat. This article is a good starting point and then DYOR from there on: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@cryptoscopia/making-sense-of-the-tether-situation
I'm not entirely sure what will happen and how USDT is really used right now. Although it's plausible that USDT is used to inflate prices, but I believe there is also an alternative.
It seems USDT is printed at times when BTC price goes down. It is possible that a lot of poeple want to exchange BTC or other cryptos back to USDT at time like these, hence the demand for USDT rises whenever BTC price is going down and new USDT is printed. I really hope it's this scenario and not the other one.
But I imagine that at some point the USDT scam will come to an end. There is just no scenario in the world there I believe that they have enough USD for each USDT and when that happens people holding USDT will lose a lot of money. I hope the extend of it will not have a big influence on the rest of the market, but if I had USDT I would try to get rid of it asap.
Bitcoin was the first and profited a lot from beeing the only fiat trading pair and entry for other crypto currencies, but now Ethereum has taken a fair share of that too and in the future there will be more fiat to crypto trading pairs, which will reduce the only real use case for Bitcoin. That's when I believe it will slowely start dying, the process might have started already.
I never believed that Bitcoin had any value at all and I'm still confident it will converge to zero over time. It will probably take 10+ years but at some point it will not make any sense to hold Bitcoin for anyone. It's absolutely horrible how much energy was wasted on this network already. It basically disappeared into thin air for nothing and could have been used to solve real world problems instead.
I know some of you believe in some ideologic fantasy that Bitcoin one day will replace financial institutions, but I don't undestand how this is even desirable. There is a balance between safety and anonymity. Replacing financial institutions gives more power and anonymity to the single individual, but it also opens up potential for crime under the cloack of anonymity. It is not a good solution and most likely will never become reality. So much on Bitcoin from my point of view.
The only crypto currency that really caught my attention last year was XRP. I know they have some unrealistic goals as well, but at least these make sense. And I really don't understand why people don't see longterm potential for XRP. There is a whole successful company behind it, whos goals are to increase the price, the adoption and value of XRP. And so are all the partners who have invested into it or received XRP. Why would this have less longterm potential compared to BTC, which does not even have a real use case right now and wastes tons of energy. Someone care to explain?
let me first say that i appreciate your articles and videos and that you are one of the few serious and professional people in the field.
something very strange is happening with bitcoin and some of the other markets. it seems there is much more control than I would like to believe.
what are your thoughts on the matter of present market manipulation?
thank you
Bitcoin is not doing much these days, hmmm I think we need the lightning tech. to kick in as good news to boost the price up :))...I dunno how some traders do it looking at a chart that doesn't move much but baby steps down...lol
love it lol!
It's moving plenty still all things considered, just that it is moving in a range.
Yaa, you right, will see where it goes after the 26th, the futures date :)
Well technically its falling down. That should be counted as doing something.
downtrend but very risky to short it lol
Oh, the cat came back the very next day... they thought he was a goner but the cat came back, he just wouldn't stay awaaaaaaay
Expert analysis! well done, sir.
Excellent charting, could not have done better myself.
what can I say... some things ya can't teach
What you said about Raiblocks in this video is in my view partially whats up with Ripple XRP, not that its a scam, or pump and dump, but its still riding media attention, hype and people arent giving up on it now, hoping and expecting it to run back from whereever it is now, up to $4, $5, or even higher.
I am not saying I expect that, but people do. At least those who are still jumping back on the XRP bandwagon.
I like XRP, but neither Ripple, nor XRP are where they want to be, and its gonna be a while before they are.
Whether its Raiblocks, XRP, Tron, or Vechain, the story is the same, some people are chasing the pump, and there is always someone who buys the top, and ends up bag holding.
The problem with Ripple is their market cap is already so big. They also sold themselves as a "bank solution." Stellar is even better (better team, better logo, smaller market cap) and although inflationary, can easily replace XRP.
I put in the "better logo" part half-jokingly, but this is crypto and memes are a thing.
Aren't Stellar and Ripple more like neighbors and not identical? As I understand it, Ripple is a B2B solution for the financial industry (banks) and Stellar is a P2P solution for cross boarder transfers. Each are going after completely different market segments...
I hold a few Raiblocks after I sold out 90% at a nice profit. Biggest impediments are small (1-man) team and untested blockchain with likely security vulnerabilities.
Perception is always quite different from reality. Ripple will likely execute better than most, but it is my opinion that they are targeting the wrong customers unfortunately - and I don't say that from a political stance, but rather business. We'll see what happens long-term though. You are right about people chasing pumps - Doug Polk just did a video on pump and dumps which was pretty informative as well as funny. Sad to see though.
Isn't that the game though ?
Bitcoin offered a world wide market for indirectly investing in to blockhain start up's, to everyone, let that sink in. The risk is just the part of it, I hear 95% forex traders are bag holders :)
I'm right there with you on this pullback. I bought more Steem last week at $3.72. I would buy more only if I see it hit below $3 at this point. Once again, I feel comfortable with my allocation and just going to patiently wait and see what happens. Thanks for the post.
I watch the Satoshi levels rather than USD personally, so Steem really hasn't been moving much since it came down to 30k Sats not too long ago where I did decide to pick some up.
I'm thinking about taking another position as well. Let's see if the market peels back any further. I'll wait till it starts going back up before placing another buy order.
This is why timing the market esspecially the crypto currency market is so hard, just when you think it can't go lower it can drop 20 points in a day. Waiting until it goes up it past your target over night.
Haha. No doubt! That's why I'm not a trader! I'm looking for long term value and cash flow. That's why I like steem and steemit. You can actually create cash flow based on your account balance and engagement. This is a dream for getting allocated to crypto in a "safer" manner.
Brett, what is your opinion on coins like Steem that require a quality level of user adoption to validate the price of the coin and make it valuable within the ecosystem? I have been looking at things like datum, flixxr, and bitclave. All require average people to adopt them. Like bitclave is a decentralized search engine where advertisers pay you instead of Google to show their ads to you. This seems awesome because Google currently makes all the money and I just get spammed, but for advertisers to take interest in bitclave it will need adoption.
Interesting...I'm honestly not that familiar with too many coins. I like the idea of a search backed coin tho. I have checked out Presearch which is similar to what you described with users getting paid to search. I do believe that is the way of the future. The reason I'm most attracted steemit is because of the steemit community that's actively engaging and getting rewards in steem. I believe it will take a community to break crypto to the masses. Social & Crypto seems like a winner to me. I have to admit that social is my business and if I were in another industry, maybe I'd be attracted to different coins.
I do some digital marketing so I guess I am biased to the space too. I want coins that have real usage. Also things like binance coin seem like safe bets. We know it gets used a lot. Maybe I just over react and get pissed off with every Facebook algorithm change but I wouldn't mind seeing their heavy handed control die to be replaced by decentralized social.
Hahaha! Yes, Facebook is so powerful but there is a change in the air. They just changed the algo to lean back towards friends and family. They gonna need to change that algo to start paying people for engaging!!! Boom!!
I agree with your assessment about Facebook and their algorithm, but the bigger beast is google. I have developed and managed my company's websites for 20 years and built a nice business based on organic search results. A few months back the big G changed their algorithm and our traffic fell by 50% or more. Time to move on from that game.
I emailed the team at bitclave, a decentralized search engine, today to learn more about how they are going to protect advertisers from searchers gaming the system and just searching for things purely to benefit from advertisers paying to make them an offer, which is how bitclave works. You get paid as the user for a brand to have the privilege to market to you. A project to keep an eye on. A little early for me to invest since it has only been on exchanges for like a month. I tend to like waiting a few months to let the ICO hysteria die off and tank the price.
OH NO! I thought the dip was over :( :( :(
Question: Could you please give some tax tips? My main question is should I take advantage of the 'wash sale' loophole? (Sell for a loss, then immediately buy back in for tax purposes). I have a subscription with Coin Tracker software to keep record of my transactions, they do a decent job.
I have been watching your videos for a while, thanks for the content. I will have some more questions in the near future.
Might do a video separately on this in the future given the demand for it.
Dear CryptoInvestor,
I finally got my Steem Account approved and great to be here chatting to all sorts of cryptocurrency enthusiasts.
I follow your YouTube videos with interest as it’s obvious to me anyway you are a stand up guy who gives his take on what’s going on. I too am waiting till BTC drops to around the 8k mark before making any moves. I’m reassured that you have the same feeling. I really like Steemit and will hold for a couple of weeks before investing a single Satoshi anywhere in this turbulent time.
Will write back soon. And hey everyone! Safe investing!
Peace ✌🏽
Welcome to steemit, we need more youtubers promoting it like crypto investor does as there is only a few big content producers here but its growing :)
Welcome to Steemit cryptodocosman, glad to have you here! Sorry for the wait to get approved, but now you get to comment whenever you like here. Hope you stick around for the future.
The petty electronic currency made crazy gains in 2017 and was the talk of media around the world
But it has started to decline since January and may continue until February 2018 during this period of time should be Bettokin bottom that will start to start again.
Currently, the default currency is trading in a secondary bearish direction in formation and as it broke the ascending trend line and finally the main trend remains bullish as it is unchanged
We conclude from the above that the electronic currency is suffering from weakness on the short term and it is expected that this situation will end in January to February as indicated above while the main trend is still bullish
Thanks for commenting klas, should be interested in whether or not that plays out.
Very nice analysis and observation about Vechain. It's hard to get an informed opinion these days about crypto. Keep it coming!
Finally found you here on Steemit! You are one of my all time favorite no nonsense crypto sources. Thanks!
Thank YOU for the kind words!
I'm glad I pulled out my $1000 a few days ago before this drop.
Looking at the news, there seem to be only negative things. Now with "senior" analysts ditching BTC to $1000, things seem bad for the short term morale of investors.
I put my remaining investment into Ethereum as I felt that it has the best prospects from an innovation standpoint.
Do you think Ethereum is a good bet for 2018?
P.S. I was one of the fools to invest at the peak in December, now down 300eur :D Good thing it isnt a point in my life where thats a very big deal.
When I get some spare funds, I will invest in BTC, ETH, LTC for the long term though.
December for me as well. The really painful part: I've owned BTC and LTC periodically for years (since 2011).
I don't know where my head has been for the past year, but it's safe to say we chose an odd time to buy into this market: Right on top of the first big wave.
Better than buying on top of the next big wave, but only if we don't get once bitten twice shy.
I had hoped that we were part of a large bandwagon going in during Q1. Oh, how wrong I was
Hold in there - patience is a virtue
Ethereum is good given the busy road map and the fact that Andreas will finish his book on it next month which might bring on some new developers (despite being available on Github). Only concern is that it is fairly high relative to Bitcoin right now compared to history, but otherwise like it.
Indeed, I was looking at the ETH/BTC chart as well, there was a small spike in the second week of January, now during this rebound it is quite reluctant to match BTC growth. Only natural since thats the largest part of my portfolio :D
In all seriousness, thank you very much for taking the time to give a response, much appreciated. I shall remain a loyal follower, even though Im basically out of the market at this point
Happy trading!
Hey @cryptoinvestor I have made a post about top 5 crypto youtubers that have influenced my path in cryptocurrency. I urge you to check this out.
Thank you for existing!
Great video, yet I find it somewhat incomplete in that you concentrate on the RFID technology as the main handicap to VEN growth. I honestly feel the importance to explain to your listeners why VEN has been doing well during this down turn would then provide a benefit to all. I feel it would be important to mentioning the partnerships with the Chinese Government, Healthcare Co.Ltd, PWC, DNV GL, Kuehne Nagel, China Unicom, Fungwhang and other notables like; Renault, Louis V etc........
On another note as long as the futures are connected with BTC, I feel the next CBOE and CME expiration dates will cause this seesaw ride to continue. Choosing a large cap like LTC with no futures attached to it would be a safer bet....
Why do I feel like we will never get out of this slump? Great info! Thanks!!!
Simple thoughts: What goes up must come down. I am very worried about the stability of the BTC price. With every Tether print comes a bump in BTC price; at least the last 4-5 that I have noticed; then it corrects back down.
Seems like the recipe for a huge correction is coming, I am pure cash now. I'll buy small amounts to ride a small bull-run but then cash out back to FIAT. I'm guessing 50% drop in BTC price by May.
I'm actually shocked that people are completely oblivious to what's been happening with the Tether / Bitfinex situation. My guess is that it's been suppressed and censored so people aren't aware, therefore, don't all cash out at once and collapse the exchanges. They basically mass printed monopoly money pretending that it's backed by USD, used it to buy Bitcoin in their own exchange and then circulated the volume to keep the price of BTC from jumping off a cliff. Then they use BTC or ETH to cash out to fiat in an exchange that complies with AML / KYC regulations. So mass print monopoly money (USDT) -> BTC -> circulate it -> BTC or alt -> Exchange that can cash out to fiat. We are going to witness a crackdown & mass exodus at some point soon.
You should make a video on Japan and Russia introducing their own cryptocurrencies, what are your thoughts?
I'm actually looking to pick up a few more investments. However, I want to see the prices go down a bit more from this point.
I know Steem and Monero are a bit too high for you to purchase more. However, I would like to know what are your long term thoughts on Steem.
I don't think the world will forget about Cryptocurrencies and move on. More and more use cases are forming in it day by day.
It's a tough market for sure right now. I think Bitcoin is getting close to done with it's downtrend. It has come off it's pumped/hyped price hikes of Nov/Dec '17 and approaching the trend line that was established in July/Aug/Sept timeframe. I believe it will bounce there and resume the more natural growth trajectory it was on prior to the unnatural holiday spike it experienced.
From there, Bitcoin could go on a bull run that leaves ALT's in the dust to bleed for a bit or the two could grow at a more natural acquisition pace where all expand together. However, if history's to repeat as it often does, we'll likely see ALT's bleed during Bitcoin's resumption to climbing in value and ALTs following when Bitcoin levels off.
opposite to your reaction, I am quite happy actually. I firmly believe btc will go down to 8k very soon and that's gonna be best and last golden opportunity to load btc up below 10k. Then end of year. I will see you around 60k per btc.
What do you base this on? I am always confused when people say numbers like 50K, 100K, 1mil
That implies a valuation of upwards of a trillion USD - unless we see some mass adoption or proof of undeniable future success, why would the market value it that high?
At this point, seeing large countries like South Korea and India putting obstacles in the road - where would the mass adoption come from?
VeChain analysis is really short sighted.. It has gotten a lot of media attention, partnerships and great upcomming events. That´s why price has gone up.
Also the RFID chip thing.. we life in a totally different and more techy world now a days as to your comparison with he past. There is a need for more transparency in the business sector and the general public will like this project aswell.
Your thoughts are getting based on guesses, no real in depth analysis on it. I personally think your video´s are below standards for the amount influence you have at this moment.
Nontheless, I hope to see some better content in the near future.
Toilet calls me but I think I can still hodl it.
Hold the door !
Hold the door !!
Hold the door !!!
I'm bearish like you.
I was wondering if your thoughts on Tether have changed? Do you think that if they are audited and it turns out to be a fraud, we could see the price of bitcoin drop to sub 5k levels?
Been watching your channel for about a month now, that when I got in to crypto. Like many I find it difficult to wade through the alleged crypto experts who are constantly clickbaiting by giving us unrealistic and unfounded "moon shot" coins. It's nice to watch your videos with their honesty and reasonable explanations on your predictions. Is there any content that you have made or you would recommend watch in order for noobs like myself to set up a good foundation for moving forward?
@cryptovestor: Can you give some insight in to why there is such a huge disconnect between SBD and the actual STEEM token price? Steemit tends to be confusing since they basically have 3 different currencies, 2 of which (STEEM & SBD) are able to be traded on Steemit and other exchanges, while STEEM power is just a utility currency within the ecosystem.
On their own site they say SBD should be roughly equal to $1 worth of STEEM tokens, but in the last few weeks it has been 2x or even 3x the price of a whole STEEM. In theory if the price of STEEM is $5 you should need to pay 5 SBD for that token, but in reality 1 SBD buys you like 1.5 STEEM.
On that same note I also was under the impression that SBD was meant to be an internal utility token as well that only really has value on the Steemit platform, so why is it even being traded on outside exchanges? If these Korean exchanges weren't pumping SBD so much may they could do more internally to balance those prices out to make sure it makes sense.
My wife and I very much enjoy your analysis and point of view. Interested to hear your perspective on Bitcoin in relation to Gold & USD. Do you think or will they affect Bitcoin price?
Some good advice in there about avoiding the flavour of the week. I think if we zoom out we'll find that altcoins in general were the flavour of the year and that might pass in 2018 as bitcoin gets more sophisticated with second layer applications.
Always on time :) , thanks !!
Tho I didnt have a reply about madoff question on ur last video :/
Would be hard to find it , inside all those comments , sucess story ;)
So I wanted to open a window about all that money and people involvded with closing eyes in Madoff invest.
I think that money/people are back on the cryptomarket
Another good video! But geez! Mr. poopoo on everything! LOL another good video, but once again I disagree with you! I think VeChain has the team to follow through, and they already have multiple partners coming to the table, including the Chinese govt. (somehow!) I think VeChain has a real chance to be a year end top 5 gainer for 2018, make it into the top 10, and implement the tech into multiple facets of industries, and continue to evolve very quickly...
if my opinion is confused time in the market, and hesitate.
Just a thought . I am afraid of BTC/USDT bubble will pop these days.
I agree that wealth is going to transfer back into Bitcoin. I imagine to over 50 % dominance this year.
Reasons: Bitcoin scales while many altcoins fail to deliver on USPs.
Cryptocurrency always recovers!
Up until now? Yes. I can see a few of these cryptocurrencies going down in a couple of months/years. A change is coming.
Tell that to BitConnect :D