Cryptocurrencies have taken a hit today and I thought it would be a good time to provide an update on some of them. Note that this video is less formal than my normal videos and I would love your feedback in the comments below as to whether or not you're okay with these videos (in addition to the higher quality, more focused ones). Here's a rundown of topics in the video:
- Recap of why markets are down due to South Korea
- NEO and Gas up due to ICO excitement. Gas might have more potential due to being divisible.
- ICON excitement. Is this project promising a bit more than they can deliver? It seems that way, but won't comment more since I have NOT done much research at all.
- Vechain partnership causing a price move to upside
- Overall Eastern Hemisphere coins seem to be doing well (good call on China coins Carter), which I generally tend to avoid due to discomfort with regulatory picture there along with ability to do research being hindered due to language barrier
- Update on Bitcoin (still bullish)
- Update on Ethereum (still bullish, but cautious about idea of investing more)
- Update on Ripple (could be a good trading opportunity, don't love it for investing)
- Update on my video for "top x crypto holdings for long-term"
- Why I don't like most technical analysis
What are your thoughts on the market? Let me know in the comments below, thank you.
P.S: These types of videos are only way you'll hear me make comments on coins you bring up a lot in comments. Sometimes I don't have enough info for a dedicated video on them, but can at least mention in passing here.
Something stinks in the market. Looks like there are a lot of books that are totally owned and I was wondering if you can comment on that? Thanks
Hello, I follow your videos on youtube.
If you are doing a video on strong alt coins for long term investing you cannot avoid those 3 picks:
Monero: Obviously the best privacy coin out there.
Bitshares: they provide a fast blockchain and a mechanism to create bit assets that track real life assets like bitUSD. The potential to replace tether makes Bitshares stand out.
Pascal coin: Wild pick. Pascal is using a different code base altogether written in Pascal. They designed the coin with a safebox which contains all the account and balance information. This makes pascal very fast 100 tx/sec and very scalable. You only need the safebox. You can see the safebox as a pruned blockchain. This is done by design.
Cons of pascal: mining is centralized and you need to get a pascal account to start transacting. Accounts are created alongside coins in mined blocks. The pascal accounts are already baked in the consensus. You need to buy an account from a miner. The pros is that the pascal blockchain is bounded by design and thus scalability and speed is achieved.
On TA, the chart shows what the market psychology is but it doesn't tell you how to interpret that into the next move.
Level-II trading is the way to position yourself, TA is all lagging RSI, B.Bands etc. Level-II shows where traders/trades are positioned which makes it bit ease to make a call.
A few points. You're right about Ripple's position - putting it simply, the banks will have their own solution, while Stellar Lumens might turn into the Western Union of the future because it's so easy-going.
I think that nations will also have their own solutions , and that many people will (have to) go along with these... and that investment in crypto will be extremely regulated soon, and tech stolen.
Everybody who can afford it will have their own solutions. Blockchain !
As to Technical Analysis, tried lots of that lately and at time it's just beautiful - at others it's useless abracadabra.
Remember that it only tries to depict or foresee the normal human psychology at work, and that therefore the term"technical" may not be so ideal. It's nice to know a lot about it while staring at the charts - resistance levels do mostly work, and the most effective ones for some reason are round numbers. I certainly wouldn't go as far as Haejin does when he says that "news are what happens to confirm Elliott Waves after the fact," which isn't working so well in our momentary market situation... where it's typically "it's either up or down from here and my guess is that up is more likely."
So I'm frequently day-trading or in fiat these days, watching, and I prefer euros as fiat as the dollar isn't exactly climbing either.
My impression s that many people are now in fiat, and we may see better days soon as monthly pay days are coming up.
As I think I said once before, video quality doesn't concern me as long as I can understand what's being said, I rarely watch youtube videos fullscreen, and I have doubts the smartphone crowd ever will ;)
I also think nation states will create their own crypto.
the writing is on the wall. After Telegram and Facebook crypto that will bring even more awareness to the mainstream, nations and central banks will be forced to jump in.
Also, more diversification and that means the market will be less transparent for rookies, more like the normal stock market. It will in fact be part of the normal asset market... that factor will easen the volatility we were used to, and which was a motivator for so many new people coming in in the first place.
Once crypto stops having the nimbus of being a "get rich quick lambo" sort of thing, the general interest will come down and everything will be back to normal, banks will be banks and sheeple will stay sheeple. Looking at what's going on at the social networks, people are still trying hard to get used to animated cat gifs, trying to avoid politics as if ignoring would make the problems go away, and generally preferring to be humans.
Most want to avoid 'complicated' at all cost, therefore the crypto growth potential may work itself into a stasis in 2018.
From then on, institutions will have the say, most cryptos will be marginalized and likely soon forgotten, or used for special projects only, remember the dotcom boom - but here, we have finance industry direct concerns taking over.
Thinking along these lines and watching the fickle psyche of the momentary investors, who run scared at every hint of a government official thinking aloud about remote measures of regulation, I start getting doubts about Bitcoin ever reaching a level of $ 50k at all. There's no reason why it should before 2020, or at all. I just looked at the BTC chart again, which I haven't been doing a lot lately, and it's at exactly the same price it was about a week ago, when I last had a closer look.
Meanwhile, we heard several pundits constantly change their minds about what will happen, while nothing really does ;)
Trying to get over the cognitive dissonance is the major challenge here.
Be alert for a wave of cash possibly flowing into the market when people get paid these two coming weeks... and think about what YOU would invest in if you were inserting new money.
Great post. Glad to see we're on the same page. I've been telling people the same thing about ripple. It's more a or less a good short term play. However, banks have spoken about creating their own system, and they will eventually create their own system. It also seems that MANY banks are partnering with ripple for the use of xCurrent (Ripple network without XRP) instead of xRapid (Ripple with XRP). It's interesting how the intermediaries (banks) don't want to rely on an intermediary for exchange (Ripple) lol.
I don't think NEO is going to disappear in the long run. People seem to forget that the Chinese will support Chinese products. I've also heard that their government is only allowing ICOs on the NEO platform. More reason for the east to be bullish on NEO. So glad I bought at $16 and forgot I had some until this pump.
Long time listener first time commenter. Your channel is solid bc your critical and informative. I do like how your less condescending on these more informal videos. Don't get me wrong, your tone is much needed in this pie in the sky time we're in.
A few suggestions.
https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/29/15892392/anchor-podcast-publishing-to-apple-google
Personally, I use charts to set possible targets for buying and selling. My logic behind it is that there are a lot of people out there using the same tools and measurements setting similar targets based on those measurements, which defines their reliability. The validity (and its predictive power) of TA, for me at least, comes not so much from the patterns themselves but from the people who use them and, thus, validate them over and over again. In that sense, neither markets predict charts nor charts predict markets, but they tend to overlap because people use them as a guide for action.
Resistance and support lines are the same in their essence - they work when people agree on a specific line using a specific set of rules to draw those lines. That way, what comes first - resistance/support lines on the charts or people's perceptions that those levels are actual resistance/support levels - is a philosophical question (although I suppose most patterns come from previous observations of repeated market moves, so their origins are as much in human psychology (as described by the charts) as pure mathematics).
More advanced charting techniques that give deeper insights into what's going on on the market, in my opinion, are made valid by the same logic.
Funnily enough, you said you didn't use Fibs, but the targets you mentioned in your previous videos lie perfectly within the expected Fibs retracement levels for the upward move of BTC last year, which made your statements about TA in this video even more surprising to me. You must have developed a sixth sense through experience for this stuff.
People seem to forget that Asia (even without China) are the biggest investors in cryptocurrency. We are never going to know exactly what drives their buy and sell decisions, but they most likely have a home bias to projects created in the continent. I'm bullish on Asia because they've been pushing the crypto-market forward even when the West doesn't pay attention.
In regards to NEO, both their founders are fluent in English and are pushing the platform all across the world, with events in the US as well as Europe and the broader Asia area. I invested after their Reddit AMA as they seemed incredibly competent and passionate about blockchain and its potential to change the world.
I'm considering just investing in a few names only to have exposure, but not worrying about them at all - just letting them sit there forever. Sort of passive indexing almost for that side of the world since my expertise isn't the best for that region.
If you do that, please let us know what names you choose. I know you probably don't want to endorse any specific cryptos, but sharing your research and conclusions would be extremely valuable to many of us. Then we can add that information to our own research before making any decisions. Thanks again for sharing your knowledge!
Agree with your analysis that Asia is bullish and optimistic toward real progress. Trade and cooperation will produce much better results than debt and death and war. Peer to peer deepens the ties among people of all nations.
Asia are always faster to adopt that the west, look at China and renewable energy...
Like that ridiculous Mona Coin LOL!
Guys, i am originally from China. Always interested in those Chinese block-chain projects and I spent a lot of time to understand who they are and what they are trying to do. A lot of "developers", "inverstors", "backers" have actually very little interests in technology rather than making fast money. I have to dig into their background and invest the project with reliable people. For now, NEO is the only one I invested. TRON is a joke for me and I think Justin Sun is trustless
Thank you for your thoughts yuka.
We need good information about what's happening in China and all of Asia and I think it's extremely important that "we the people" deal directly with each other. And especially that we don't rely on governments to do our thinking for us. Governments will follow if only people will lead. The closer the ties and the greater the number of win-win situations the fewer will be the misunderstandings.
👍
Thanks for the ''professional advice'' lol!
NEO & GAS have no transaction fees....that's a big plus
But isn't a bit inconvenienient that it's not divisible?
GAS has no transaction fee; NEO will have transaction fees (paid in GAS).
How come NEO has no trans fees at the moments?
https://medium.com/@MalcolmLerider/clarification-on-neo-gas-and-consensus-nodes-aa94d4f4b09
Thanks for the link...don't understand #6:
"Because NEO holders will force transaction costs to be kept at zero, there is no economic incentive to becomes a consensus node. Thus, the only incentive to become a consensus node is to uphold the honesty of the network. This is a separation of concerns unique to NEO."
If consensus nodes have no incentives then why they should become one? also how many NEO do you need to be eligible as consensus note?
That's probably why its accompanied by GAS
Curious if you have any thoughts on this report coming out of the St. Louis Fed. Paints a pretty optimistic picture for decentralized crypto, which I found surprising given who commissioned the report.
https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/2018/01/10/a-short-introduction-to-the-world-of-cryptocurrencies.pdf
And I dig the grab bag-style video for less in-depth stuff.
What do you think about APPC.
I agree most of the cryptocurrencies are down but not every cryptocurrency. Etherium classic is still above $40 which was in 30's couple of days ago.
Thanks for sharing the knowledge.
It is nice to see you do altcoin. Please do more altcoin anaylsis!!!
I'm not sure I follow your reasoning against Ripple's XRP. Banks will be reluctant to use a third party? Isn't SWIFT, the product that Ripple is aiming to replace, a third party?
Two points:
Even if, say, Bank of America creates their own chain, what is the incentive for Citi or HSBC to use it? I feel like a third party expert has an easier sell.
While I agree that no business really wants to rely on a third party, I feel like FI greed will win out. One competitor using Ripple's xRapid would have a substantial leg up. There would be pressure for others to join.
BTW, great videos. One of my few YouTube subs that I have on push notification. Thank you.
There is no reason for banks to use Ripple with it's $177 billion total market cap (counting all 100 billion coins). They can build their own for much less and control the whole thing, just like they did with the Visa network before it was spun out.
I like your market updates like this. I think its good to have someone level headed give us a general summary of the state of the crypto market.
I like your analysis in general but I don't agree with you on Bitcoin dominance. I think the cat's out of the bag with altcoins. Even though all these coins are just like stocks to people and they know very little about the underlying projects, money will still keep poring that way. Even if BTC dominance returns to 40-45% briefly, it's my opinion that 30 or even 25% is a long term figure. The only way I see that number going close to all time high again is if the crypto bubble pops.
I think it's too soon to say, but we'll see how it turns out - should be interesting. I agree that bubble popping would definitely lead to a spike in dominance though.
What do you think of golem?
I don't know if you had a chance to see my chart when I posted it in the comments of your $23k prediction vid but here it is again - I was playing with a Fib retrace and it seems to make sense...
I've seen - just not a huge TA person, as mentioned in this video.
Fair enough. But there's still no denying that, when used properly, the Fib retrace is accurate as shit.
In fact, I would love to have a wager with you as to which the price of any given crypto obeys more - the energy and momentum inherently built into the chart vs any other factor or combination of factors you choose.
Good stuff. So the point is for 2018
Buy BITCOIN.
Good stuff. Keep it up and I appreciate your analysis. I also do dig more videos from you even if some are not formal. Quantity from you is lacking. (where most youtubers and crypto people the quality is lacking)
No not really. The point is to adjust your portfolio to contain more BTC to hedge yourself in the event of a BTC/alt cycle market reversal.
There are tons of new peaple who only look at the surface level of the latest news. It is crazy how easy it is for the whole market to be manipulated(or at least scared twice in a row by non-news). The market only needs an excuse to go up or down right now.
Why do you care so much about the bitcoin dominance level? Just because of its first-mover advantage?
If you want bitcoin dominance level back to 40-50%, another way for it to happen is the prices of altcoins crashing. When bitcoin price crashes, it will take every other cryptocurrencies down with it.
I think it is because compared to other coins, bitcoin is the battle hardened veteran. When cripto has hit the news in the last few years the one peaple talk about is bitcoin. Sure, it is no longer the greatest in terms of tech but think about the state of the market, lots of peaple are new and are only aware of the surface level.
Will this happen? No idea, but it is worth considering.
He gets into it better here:
and here
I believe that there is not enough electricity on earth for many proof of work coins.
From this basic hypothesis, Bitcoin will dominate POW coins. Coins like SYS coin are doing the smart long term thing. They merge mine with Bitcoin.
If you believe in POS model, my intuition is to go DPOS like Bitshares. This considerably reduces the power of colluding whales on the network.
The POW vs POS discussion merits a whole post on its own.
nice information and you are right that is perfect reason for gas and Neo are up.
I think a big part of why GAS has risen itself is the "no fees" hype that we have recently on other coins.
I always appreciate your contrarian approach and your fundamental analysis. Your channel is some sort of reality check when things are too optimistic!
Why does the price of altcoins go down when the price of bitcoin goes down? I don't understand. If anyone could enlighten me, I would greatly appreciate it! Thank you!
Angst
One of the conduits that people use to buy altcoins is through bitcoin, hence when they see the market drop, a significant portion of people will flock to bitcoin. Thats not to say that bitcoin might not drop along with altcoins on a USD level, however the relative strength of bitcoin will be much greater than that of altcoins.
I'd have to say ALTs typically go down when BTC goes down because all altcoins tend to follow BTC. If alts go down, even slightly, many people sell into BTC. After selling into BTC, the people that I know will sell their BTC into USDT and wait for prices to stableize.
By the way, if you'd like to be the CASINO, take a look at Wagerr (WGR)
Hey @cryptovestor! When will you a video about upcoming ICOs like pocketinns or hirematch?
(Btw why are there so many ICOs scheduled for the same day, 15th Jan?)
And what do you think of websites like ICOBench.com ICORanker.com ICORATING.com or Trackico.io
Thanks, keep up the good work
Why do you thinks ripple is not an investment ? Is it not a long term holding material ? Have read ample articles claiming that ethereum will be the currency of 2018.
As stated, there's a lot of uncertainty as to whether or not banks will adopt it in any form due to general distrust of third parties. Further, they have isolated themselves from the consumer market.
I just finished reading the book you recommend on your posts: Cryptoassets. Is a great read and I think I’ll need to go through it again soon since I’m new to investing and some of the subjects they touch, like portfolio theory, I feel I need to learn more about. The cautionary tales of the Steem and Zcash bubbles were also fun to read about.
Anyway, I just wanted to ask you, is there any other book on investing or a related subject you'd recommend as a follow up to that one?
I like neo. It bring me a lot of profit!
Rewards Pool Farmer Alert
He is leasing 30k SP from @minnowbooster then using that to VOTE Up his own 7 Day old comments on random posts at the last minute. Scroll his comments to around the 6 day mark or just go to https://steemd.com/@ryacha21; he has a lot of self love on his own old comments.
HE IS DOING IT OVER AND OVER AND OVER.. He is farming the pool.. If you could help it would be appreciated..
Learn more about this sack of monkey spunk here:
https://steemit.com/shitpost/@pawsdog/the-shit-post-diaries-1-17-18-4
Also kinda a dick move to use the actual good post of another person to post a comment for no other reason to come back and farm it later.
Post Author, @cryptovestor I do apologize.. This dude makes no actual articles of his own so the only way to draw attention to what he is doing is to comment his comments. My sincerest apologies for cluttering up your blog, outing the abusive self voting behavior of @ryacha21
Prior to your channel, I always thought businessmen were heartless assholes, to an extent I still do but you seem to genuinely care about the well being of your followers even though it could be contradictory to your own self interest in these markets due to a greater educated mass (obviously ignoring youtube and steemit revenue) I have to ask: why do you do this?
i won't touch neo or ven. they look very scam to me. seriously.
Neo is a soon to be top 5 coin. Ven will be a top 10 coin . Why are you saying that? You make no arguments to substantiate your claims
Almost every Top 5 Coins for 2018 to HODL long term for life video:
Looking forward to some real analysis from you on this dude. Keep up the solid work.
Thanks for the update, I hope the online casinos adopt FunFair
(FUN) soon
I agree that Technical analysis doesn't really work all that well and I personally think that most of it is about as accurate as a gypsy fortune teller . But one of the usefull things that I find with it is that you may be able to get a better feel of what the psychology in the market is like.
I also agree with technical analysis not doing well in this space. How can your indicators hold up when there are coins that pump and dump on the regular?
Did you guys see SPANK coin? lol!
This video is fine. But didn't you say you were going to do more and deeper analysis in 2018?
For a host of reasons, I'm simply not going to be able to dig as deep or as broadly as you do. I would like the benefit of your research without having to do the work myself. In return I'm happy to like and subscribe.
Thank you for this video. Maybe you could make a video about STEEM, you're already promoting it. The user/posts statistics are killing it lately:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@penguinpablo/weekly-steem-stats-report-monday-january-15-2018
One of the best real world uses for Crypto at the moment with great potential. Makes up a major part of my portfolio! cheers mate!
How diverse is your portfolio? 3-5 assets ?
I appreciate all your videos. Actually, if you had the time, I think a lot of us would appreciate a daily 10 minute informal video commenting on the crypto market. You could just call these videos 'Market update + date'. Then people could easily differentiate between these and your more thorough ones.
Amazing video. I loved the informal new format.
I just wanted to ask your opinion on a set of small projects that are merging together, Denarius, Ellaism and Shield, calling themselves the Triforce. The devs. of theese groups have created a tight community supporting them. They seem to have a promising project... but since I'm not a tech-geek, I know little about the technical stuff. As you say in your video, I'm inclined to trust someone who knows best... hence the question.
Best regards and I hope to see more of your videos!
Thanks
To be honest, the banks make a lot of their money from the exoribiant fees, I think that the barrier it would take for rich people to use and trust a volitial assest such as ripple, would take a lot of effort. I personally think that ripple or even crypto curencies in general. So i think that it is actually better for the banks to keep the fees high I means the business model is working. But then again I am new to crypto, if you have any comments please reply.